251–260 of 284 posts
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Fully pay health care costs for _who_ for four years with 1 trillion dollars? Doesn't America alone already spend 2 or 3 trillion a year on healthcare?
America spends $5T on healthcare per year. That is twice as much per capita as our "peer" nations (UK, France, Canada, Germany, etc) and we have poorer outcomes.
Can someone elucidate us as to how so many platforms (ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, etc etc) all sprung up so quickly? How did the engineering teams immediately know how to go about doing this kind of tech with LLMs and DNNs and whatnot?
By 2020/2021 with the release of GPT-3, the trajectory of a lot of the most obvious product directions had already become clear. It was mainly a matter of models becoming capable enough to unlock them. E.g. here's a forecast of 2021 to 2026 from 2021, over a year before ChatGPT was released. It hits a lot of the product beats we've come to see as we move into late 2025. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhyn…
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The platform is just a search tool and extended processing modes. That is easily replicated elsewhere. The only moat they have is the fact that you still need a GPU of some kind to reliably run even a tiny LLM. But the gap between what absolutely needs a server farm and what can be ran on a store bought gaming computer is quickly closing. You can already run mixture of experts models on gaming rigs with a high degree…
I'd say their DX is way better compared to the competition. The playground, tooling, and web experience with documentation is far superior to the competition (even tho it has issues sometimes). User experience is key in a sea of the same shit. I mean you could say the same about a Macbook or iPhone/iPad, but for the actual people (not HN users lol) out there, they vastly prefer Apple to HP, Dell, etc. Due to their wa…
Platforms usually deliver significant value that is hard to replicate. OpenAI doesn't have any such thing. It's trivially replaced, and there's many competitors already. OpenAI is ahead of the curve, but they don't seem to have any particular way to do sticky capture. Migrating to a different LLM is an afternoon's work at most, not nearly the complexity of porting an app between OS' or creating a robust hardware driv…
I don't like Ed Zitron automatic dismissal of everything AI and the constant profanities in his writing are getting old, and it's usually not very well structured, but that said... I like the perspective he has about the money involved. https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-case-against-generative-ai/ OpenAI needs 1 trillion dollars in next four years just to keep existing. That's more than all currently available capital,…
I think it's pretty smart actually. Altman has sort of linked the fate of OpenAI to that of Nvidia, AMD, Oracle, Microsft etc with these huge deals / partnerships. We've seen the impact of these deals on stock prices before even a penny has changed hands. Tracks with his reputation for power play and politics.
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I don't know what wealth distribution means in this context, or why it's relevant at all, but food grows fast and doctors take like 20 years to grow no matter how much money you throw at it or where you get the money. And the context above was more specifically "fully pay health care costs" which is a comical fantasy the moment you try to actually define what that means, because the limit is not the price.
simply, we have a scarcity of healthcare because we don’t invest the wealth we collectively produce in healthcare.
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Isn't that every domain? The dude is a living embodiment of "overconfident and wrong". He picks a side, then cherry picks until he has it all lined up so that his side is Obviously Right and anything else is Obviously Wrong. Then reality happens and he's proven wrong, but he never fucking learns.
He is following a very well worn path of writing histrionically about a bubble and making money off it. Point out the obvious that it's a bubble. Throw out a lot of figures supporting it. Get your emotional hooks in (prey on fears of job loss, hatred of corporate mismanagement/execs etc) and charge a subscription for it. I liked an article or two of his but he's basically meatGPTing The Information with cursing.
If some exist I'd like to go see their output. If few/none exist... are there any conclusions we can draw from the rarity?
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Actually, Anthrophic has a Mac app I can use, and I cannot use the OpenAI one.
Fun fact, it’s an Electron app
So guess which app I prefer. That's the argument for Electron, and it is a good one.
I don't like Ed Zitron automatic dismissal of everything AI and the constant profanities in his writing are getting old, and it's usually not very well structured, but that said... I like the perspective he has about the money involved. https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-case-against-generative-ai/ OpenAI needs 1 trillion dollars in next four years just to keep existing. That's more than all currently available capital,…
That's a mischaracterization: They need that order of investment to meet the demand they forecast.
It's unclear what other trajectories look like.
Additionally, I don't know who Ed Zitron is but he clearly doesn't follow how infrastructure projects are funded and how OpenAI is doing deals.
See for example the AMD deal last week where they seem to have at least partially used their ability to increase AMD's stock price to pay for future GPUs.
Mining companies do the kids of "circular deals" that OpenAI is criticized for all the time - they will take equity in their supplier companies. It's easy to see similar arrangements for this $1T investment in the future.
I don't like Ed Zitron automatic dismissal of everything AI and the constant profanities in his writing are getting old, and it's usually not very well structured, but that said... I like the perspective he has about the money involved. https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-case-against-generative-ai/ OpenAI needs 1 trillion dollars in next four years just to keep existing. That's more than all currently available capital,…
I like reading Zitron’s output, but this remark stood out to me as him weighing in on a domain he’s basically clueless about. Spread across 4 years, there’s way more than $1tn in available private capital. Berkshire Hathaway alone has 1/3 of that sitting in a cash pile right now. You don’t have to look at many balance sheets to see that the big tech companies are all also sitting on huge piles of cash. I don’t person…