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OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

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Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#251

Post by summa_tech »

pjc50 wrote: post #230
athrowaway3z wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's worth noting Elisson is 2 years older than Trump. What's he going to do with all that money, and what does he care for the risk it's bad or shady? Worst case, he got to be #1 for a bit for a few dozen billion, best case he's hoping AGI will extend his life before he croaks.

I miss the era when people like Dale Carnegie would sponsor some public buildings, instead of ruining the internet and the natural environment.

You may be thinking of Andrew Carnegie. Who was a steel industry tycoon, probably the #2 most polluting industry today. Back then - probably #1.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#252

Post by kelvinjps10 »

somenameforme wrote: post #244
sailfast wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure who cares if we wipe out 15% of everyone’s retirement right as long as it’s got some schadenfreude involved.

I doubt, or at least hope, that no sort of managed fund for retirement (read: low risk) is going 15% on AI stuff. Regardless of what one thinks might happen, it has to be accepted at this is an obviously very high risk bet, because this all is screaming bubble even more than the era of 'zomg i flipped this house i financed on an insta-approved loan, installed granite counter tops, and walked away with $20k profit in…

But probably they will invest in the sp500, and tech companies make a big portion of the sp 500 and these tech companies also happen to be big in AI

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#253

Post by jamauro »

cs702 wrote: post #201

Anecdotally, many people at OpenAI, Nvidia, Oracle, etc., sincerely believe their company's own hype . They remind me of the story about the oil prospector in Warren Buffett's year-end 1985 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders: > An oil prospector, moving to his heavenly reward, was met by St. Peter with bad news. “You’re qualified for residence”, said St. Peter, “but, as you can see, the compound reserved for o…

Feels ironic now that Warren is himself an oil prospector with his Occidental stake.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#254

Post by bmacho »

Ianjit wrote: post #122
returnInfinity wrote: post #107

This is fueled by the parabolic token usage. If token usage continues to grow parabolic, then these are the most genius deals made. If token usage declines because of high prices, look at what happened to SBF.

I notice that when I ask ChatGPT a question the answers I get back seem more verbose than they were a year ago. Where a 1-2 line response would be sufficient GPT delivers a sprawling essay. Overall the value of the answer has probably gone down, but tokens are up.

I've just set my (free) ChatGPT to "Robot" in style options, so far I like its style and level of detailedness

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#255

Post by limpbizkitfan »

passwordoops wrote: post #193
HelloNurse wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this means that the fall of OpenAI will cause Oracle and Nvidia to crash and downsize, bubbles aren't completely bad.

You can't discount the impact this will have on global stock markets and what that may do to both individuals and, more importantly, pension funds, as a large swath of people are retiring

Perhaps most of the impact could be burdened on NVIDIA investors, employees, leadership, or OpenAI investors, employees, leadership, etc., etc.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#256

Post by tim333 »

mythz wrote: post #106

All clearly designed to cash in on the speculative value being given to AI companies. Strategically I thought OpenAI's deal of getting 10% of AMD for driving their stock price to $600 was a pretty clever way of creating $97 Billion from nothing - effectively paying for the GPUs they'd purchase. At the same time I would've thought this insider pump and cash-in strategy would be somehow illegal, but I guess anything go…

Just getting options and trying to get the company to do well isn't illegal or discouraged. Price manipulation can be illegal but I don't see any evidence of that so far.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#257

Post by alecco »

If the AI bubble bursts, there's a high chance the Everything Bubble bursts right after. And then USD goes gg.

I think part of the problem is investors are counting on infinite bailouts because AI is too big to fail. But that also causes USD erosion.

I have no clue what is the way out no matter who is in the driver's seat. And speaking of that, we had a decade of incompetent people in key positions at the Fed/Treasury, BoE, and CBE.

But "nothing ever happens".

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#258

Post by captainkrtek »

rco8786 wrote: post #236
xpuente wrote: post #153

This is going to end badly — and soon. It’s ironic that catastrophic forgetting (i.e., the inability to perform continuous learning) and hallucinations (i.e., the failure to recognize when a prediction is unfounded) won’t be the causes of the crash, but rather greed and stupidity.

Has greed and stupidity ever not been the underlying cause of a financial bubble?

The 08 financial crisis and mortgage backed CDOs?

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#259

Post by roncesvalles »

themafia wrote: post #89
sbierwagen wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also a pg essay from 2010: https://www.paulgraham.com/yahoo.html >By 1998, Yahoo was the beneficiary of a de facto Ponzi scheme. Investors were excited about the Internet. One reason they were excited was Yahoo's revenue growth. So they invested in new Internet startups. The startups then used the money to buy ads on Yahoo to get traffic. Which caused yet more revenue growth for Yahoo, and further convinced investors…

That's not how Ponzi schemes work. Yahoo had a defacto _monopoly_ and the market had bad discovery leading to bad price information. There was no point at which the internet was /not/ worth investing in and everyone who had experience with it knew that. The real problem seemed to be that you can only put so much money into pets.com before it becomes stupid. You had more short term investment capital than could be _ef…

>There was no point at which the internet was /not/ worth investing in and everyone who had experience with it knew that.

I don't get this. Of course there was. Specifically, March 10, 2000.

To declare that something is not worth investing in doesn't imply that it's useless. (and actually, swing investors will argue something can be worth investing in even though it is in fact useless, e.g. web3 and most crypto).

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#260

Post by tim333 »

cs702 wrote: post #201

Anecdotally, many people at OpenAI, Nvidia, Oracle, etc., sincerely believe their company's own hype . They remind me of the story about the oil prospector in Warren Buffett's year-end 1985 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders: > An oil prospector, moving to his heavenly reward, was met by St. Peter with bad news. “You’re qualified for residence”, said St. Peter, “but, as you can see, the compound reserved for o…

Both Jensen Huang and Sam Altman seem to believe.

Here's them 2 weeks ago being interviewed https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVBzsg3yCK4&t=40s

Also Brockman:

>And so, you really want every person to be able to have their own dedicated GPU, right? So, you're talking order of 10 billion GPUs we're going to need. This deal we're talking about, it's for millions of GPUs. Like, we're still three orders of magnitude off of where we need to be. So we're doing our best to provide compute availability, but we're heading to this world where the whole economy is powered by compute... (15 min in)

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