One to two Starlink satellites are falling back to Earth each day

Not really. It's a tiny fraction of the same potent ones that come from meterioids, and unimaginably small compared to what just the relatively few solid rocket booster launches. If you're concerned about aluminum oxide's impact on the ozone, you need to lobby for the end of solid rocket boosters log before you even consider demising satellites.

So you're doing the same thing?

Either make a meaningful argument or stop insinuating through omission that there's a real problem here. You're not only insulting the intelligence of your readers but also, thereby, undermining your cause.

The article you linked is garbage. Its authors find (of course not controlling for multiple comparisons) an effect that looks statistically significant if you p-hack it just right, then juxtapose it with overdetermined and badly simulated South polar vortex behavior to create the false impression that these satellites are killing the planet.

The real motivation behind pieces like this is personal enmity towards Elon Musk. It could not be more obvious. These people pollute our intellectual commons and degrade whatever remains of their intellectual honesty to run tendentious pieces that let them tell their friends they're sticking it to bad rocket man.

Why are NOAA and NASA funding this stuff?

You've mentioned the uber effect about 100 times now, I get it. I honestly don't know just how mad (I'd wager not very) the average city resident is that they have uber now instead of maybe some shitty transit system with two routes out of 20 promised in 15 years 500% over budget. I do VERY MUCH wish we built solid, modern, useful public transit on budget in a reasonable amount of time. But it's honestly wishful thinking at this point.(3)

Similar story for deploying broadband, especially last mile. The government hasn't been very good at that from everything I've seen (1, including starlink's failure).

As for starlinks deployments, I can't find good numbers, so perhaps I was overconfident. I wish I could find more examples, it seems like they could be doing much more than they are, but they are a for-profit company. Given that it can serve rural, poor, otherwise disconnected communities, would you be for or against using starlink to serve them through some government-backed/subsidized efforts?(2)

(1) ---The Rural Digital Opportunity Fund (RDOF) RDOF is one of the most recent and troubled examples. It was a $20.4 billion initiative to bring high-speed broadband to millions of unserved homes and businesses.

Massive Defaults and Questionable Winners: In the first phase, the FCC awarded $9.2 billion to over 300 companies. However, major problems quickly emerged.

LTD Broadband: The single largest winner, provisionally awarded $1.3 billion, was ultimately denied the funds by the FCC in 2022. The FCC determined that the company, a small fixed-wireless provider, failed to demonstrate it had the technical and financial capability to deliver the promised fiber-to-the-home service to nearly 600,000 locations.

Starlink (SpaceX): The fourth-largest winner, provisionally awarded $886 million, also had its award rejected by the FCC. The agency cited that the satellite technology was "still developing" and questioned its ability to meet the program's long-term speed and latency requirements.

Widespread Defaults: By 2023, bidders had defaulted on their commitments for over 23% of the locations they had won in the auction, leaving millions of Americans in limbo and forcing the FCC to try and reclaim those areas for future funding.

---The Broadband Technology Opportunities Program (BTOP) - 2009 This program, part of the 2009 Recovery Act, was a grant-based system rather than a reverse auction, but it provides a clear example of budget and delivery failures.

"The Road to Nowhere": One of the most infamous examples was in Eagle Butte, South Dakota. The Cheyenne River Sioux Tribe Telephone Authority was awarded a $36.7 million grant to build a fiber network. Years later, a report from the Department of Commerce's Inspector General found that after spending $28 million, the project had connected only 70 customers, was nowhere near completion, and was plagued by mismanagement.

(2) https://techafricanews.com/2025/06/18/starlink-proposes-us27...

https://southernafricantimes.com/rwanda-and-spacex-sign-agre...

"200 Terminals for Amazon Communities: In Brazil, Starlink has provided at least 200 terminals to schools and healthcare centers in remote Amazonian communities, providing a vital link for education and telehealth."

(3) Of course, I predict one possible retort that it's these very same "oligarchs" that are tearing down the government and rendering it unable to build public infrastructure, thus lining Musk's and friends' pockets. To that I'd say, look at very blue california's high speed rail. Yes, trump did just take away some their funding, but it's been like 20 years now? And they're about 300% over budget, and their timeline doesn't even including full completion, but we can safely say 15+ years behind schedule. I'm not blaming democrats, I'm saying there's a systemic problem with state capacity. It is, very sadly, just not reasonable to expect much from the government when it comes to building public infrastructure.

There are a few exacerbating factors.

The first is that IIUC, CFCs release chlorine atoms which catalyze ozone, whereas aluminium oxide catalyzes the creation of chlorine atoms from chlorine reservoirs, which then go on to catalyze ozone. I loosely believe at this point after some sketchy research and maths that this makes it around two orders of magnitude more potent.

The second is that these particles are produced directly in the upper atmosphere. I couldn't give you a number for how much that changes things, but I assume it's nontrivial.

The final point I've noticed is that mass to orbit has been increasing at a rapid exponential rate recently, and it would not surprise me at all to soon see an extra order of magnitude on it.

Worst-case, that could change your 5,000 year figure to just a couple. I don't think it's that bad, I'm not overly concerned about this issue, but given ozone depletion is a legitimate existential threat and the numbers don't immediately make it seem impossible, I think it's worth paying attention to.

This is ridiculous.

How's service delivered to the South Pole?

Iqaluit?

As long as your traffic is terminated at the same POP, you won't get any session terminations.

And Starlink tells you when your public IP changes anyway