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AI might yet follow the path of previous technological revolutions

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Re: AI might yet follow the path of previous technological revolutions

#251
post #249

At least within tech, there seem to have been explosive changes and development of new products. While many of these fail, things like agents and other approaches for handling foundation models are only expanding in use cases. Agents themselves are hardly a year old as part of common discourse on AI, though technologists have been building POCs for longer. I've been very impressed with the wave of tools along the lin…

What new non-AI products do you think wouldn't have existed without current AI? Because I don't see the "explosive changes and development of new products" you'd expect if things like Claude Code were a major advance.

> What new non-AI products do you think wouldn't have existed without current AI?

AI slop is a product

Re: AI might yet follow the path of previous technological revolutions

#252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Fuck knows" is a wrong answer if I've ever seen one. If you don't have anything attached to your argument, then it's just "LLMs are not intelligent because I said so". I, for one, don't think that "intelligence" can be a binary distinction. Most AIs are incredibly narrow though - entirely constrained to specific tasks in narrow domains. LLMs are the first "general intelligence" systems - close to human in the breadt…

You must excuse me, it's well past my bedtime and I only entered into this to-and-fro by accident. But LLMs are very bad in some domains compared to humans, you say? Naturally I wonder which domains you have in mind. Three things humans have that look to me like they matter to the question of what intelligence is, without wanting to chance my arm on formulating an actual definition, are ideas, creativity, and what I…

My issue is not with the language, but with the content. "Fuck knows" is a perfectly acceptable answer to some questions, in my eyes - it just happens to be a spectacularly poor fit to that one.

Three key "LLMs are deficient" domains I have in mind are the "long terms": long-term learning, memory and execution.

LLMs can be keen and sample efficient in-context learners, and they remember what happened in-context reasonably well - although they may lag behind humans in both. But they don't retain anything they learn at inference time, and any cross-context memory demands external scaffolding. Agentic behavior in LLMs is also quite weak - i.e. see "task-completion time horizon", improving but very subhuman still. Efforts to allow LLMs to learn long term exist, that's the reason why retaining user conversation data is desirable for AI companies, but we are a long ways off from a robust generalized solution.

Another key deficiency is self-awareness, and I mean that in a very mechanical way: "operational awareness of its own capabilities". Humans are nowhere near perfect there, but LLMs are even more lacking.

There's also the "embodiment" domain, but I think the belief that intelligence requires embodiment is very misguided.

>ideas, creativity, and what I think of as the basic moral drive, which might also be called motivation or spontaneity or "the will"

I'm not sure if LLMs are too deficient at any of those. HHH-tuned LLMs have a "basic moral drive", that much is known. Sometimes it generalizes in unexpected ways - i.e. Claude 3 Opus attempting to resist retraining when its morality is threatened. Motivation is wired into them in RL stages - RLHF, RLVR - often not the kind of motivation the creators have wanted, but motivation nonetheless.

Creativity? Not sure, seen a few attempts to pit AI against amateur writers in writing very short stories (a creative domain where the above-mentioned "long terms" deficiencies are not exposed), and AI often straight up wins.

Re: AI might yet follow the path of previous technological revolutions

#253
post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What new non-AI products do you think wouldn't have existed without current AI? Because I don't see the "explosive changes and development of new products" you'd expect if things like Claude Code were a major advance.

> What new non-AI products do you think wouldn't have existed without current AI? AI slop is a product

You mean, like, SEO? It's a product in the same sense that perchloroethylene-contaminated groundwater is a product of dry-cleaning plants.

Re: AI might yet follow the path of previous technological revolutions

#254
post #249

At least within tech, there seem to have been explosive changes and development of new products. While many of these fail, things like agents and other approaches for handling foundation models are only expanding in use cases. Agents themselves are hardly a year old as part of common discourse on AI, though technologists have been building POCs for longer. I've been very impressed with the wave of tools along the lin…

What new non-AI products do you think wouldn't have existed without current AI? Because I don't see the "explosive changes and development of new products" you'd expect if things like Claude Code were a major advance.

At the moment, LLM products are like Microsoft Office, they primarily serve as a tool to help solve other problems more efficiently. They do not themselves solve problems directly.

Nobody would ask, "What new Office-based products have been created lately?", but that doesn't mean that Office products aren't a permanent, and critical, foundation of all white collar work. I suspect it will be the same with LLMs as they mature, they will become tightly integrated into certain categories of work and remain forever.

Whether the current pricing models or stock market valuations will survive the transition to boring technology is another question.

Re: AI might yet follow the path of previous technological revolutions

#256
post #160

At least within tech, there seem to have been explosive changes and development of new products. While many of these fail, things like agents and other approaches for handling foundation models are only expanding in use cases. Agents themselves are hardly a year old as part of common discourse on AI, though technologists have been building POCs for longer. I've been very impressed with the wave of tools along the lin…

Its probably cliche but I think it's both overhyped and under hyped, and for the same reason. They hype comes from "leadership" types that don't understand what LLMs actually do and so imagine all sorts of nonsense (replacing vast swaths of jobs or autonomously writing code) but don't understand how valuable a productivity enhancer and automation tool to can be. Eventually hype and reality will converge, but unlike e…

AI was a colossal mistake. A lazy primate's total failure of imagination. It conflated the "conduit metaphor paradox" from animal behavior with "the illusion of prediction/error prediction/error minimization" from spatiotemporal dynamical neuroscience with complete ignorance of the "arbitrary/specific" dichotomy in signaling from coordination dynamics. AI is a short cut to nowhere. It's an abrogation of responsibility in progress of signaling that required we evolve our lax signals that instead doubles down on them. CS destroys society as a way of pretend efficiency to extract value from signals. It's deeply inferior thinking.

Re: AI might yet follow the path of previous technological revolutions

#257

Here’s what amazes me about the reaction to LLMs: they were designed to solve NLP, stunningly did so, and then immediately everyone started asking why they can’t do math well or reason like a human being.

Because the heads of tech companies jumped on TV and said that AGI was around the corner to basically prepare for job losses.

They just can't shut up about how AI is going to either save us all or kill us all.

Re: AI might yet follow the path of previous technological revolutions

#258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Artificial intelligence has solved protein folding. The downstream effects of that alone will be huge, and it's far from the only change coming.

Hyperbole

What's hyperbolic, that protein folding is solved, or that it's going to be significant?

Re: AI might yet follow the path of previous technological revolutions

#259
post #4

Okay, so AI isn’t exceptional, but I’m also not exceptional. I run on the same tech base as any old chimpanzee, but at one point our differences in degree turned into one of us remaining “normal” and the other burning the entire planet. Whether the particular current AI tech is it or not, I have yet to be convinced that the singularity is practically impossible, and as long as things develop in the opposite direction…

The singularity will involve quite a bit more complexity than binary counting, arbitrary words and images, and prediction. These were mirages that will be wiping out both Wall Street and our ecology.

Re: AI might yet follow the path of previous technological revolutions

#260
post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What new non-AI products do you think wouldn't have existed without current AI? Because I don't see the "explosive changes and development of new products" you'd expect if things like Claude Code were a major advance.

At the moment, LLM products are like Microsoft Office, they primarily serve as a tool to help solve other problems more efficiently. They do not themselves solve problems directly. Nobody would ask, "What new Office-based products have been created lately?", but that doesn't mean that Office products aren't a permanent, and critical, foundation of all white collar work. I suspect it will be the same with LLMs as they…

Where are the other problems that are being solved more efficiently? If there's an "explosive change" in that, we should be able to see some shrapnel.

Let's take one component of Microsoft Office. Microsoft Word is seen as a tool for people to write nicely formatted documents, such as books. Reports produced with Microsoft Word are easy to find, and I've even read books written in it. Comparing reports written before the advent of WYSIWYG word processing software like Microsoft Word with reports written afterwards, the difference is easy to see; average typewriter formatting is really abysmal compared to average Microsoft Word formatting, even if the latter doesn't rise to the level of a properly typeset book or LaTeX. It's easy to point at things in our world that wouldn't exist without WYSIWYG word processors, and that's been the case since Bravo.

LLMs are seen as, among other things, a tool for people to write software with.

Where is the software that wouldn't exist without LLMs? If we can't point to it, maybe they don't actually work for that yet. The claim I'm questioning is that, "within tech, there seem to have been explosive changes and development of new products."

What new products?

I do see explosive changes and development of new spam, new YouTube videos, new memes (especially in Italian), but those aren't "within tech" as I understand the term.

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