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AGI is an engineering problem, not a model training problem

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Re: AGI is an engineering problem, not a model training problem

#251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I found it strange that John Carmack and Ilya Sutskever both left prestigious positions within their companies to pursue AGI as if they had some proprietary insight that the rest of industry hadn't caught on to. To make as bold of a career move that publicly would mean you'd have to have some ultra serious conviction that everyone else was wrong or naive and you were right. That move seemed pompous to me at the time;…

With Carmack it's consciously a dilliante project. He's been effectively retired for quite some time. It's clear at some point he no longer found game and graphics engine internals motivation, possibly because the industry took the path he was advocating against back in the day. For a while he was focused on Armadillo aerospace, and they got some cool stuff accomplished. That was also something of a knowing pet proje…

> possibly because the industry took the path he was advocating against back in the day

What path did he advocate? And what path did the industry take instead?

Re: AGI is an engineering problem, not a model training problem

#252

I think I am coming to agree with the opinions of the author, at least as far as LLMs not being the key to AGI on their own. The sheer impressiveness of what they can do, and the fact they can do it with natural language, made it feel like we were incredibly close for a time. As we adjust to the technology, it starts to feel like we're further away again. But I still see all the same debates around AGI - how do we de…

The dream, as I see it, is that AGI could 1, automate research/engineering, such that it would be self-improving and advance technology faster and better than would happen without AGI, improving quality of life, and 2, do a significant amount of the labor, especially physical labor via robotics, that people currently do. 2 would be significant enough in scale that it reduces the amount of labor people need to do on average without lowering quality of life. The political/economic details of that are typically handwaved.

The morality of it depends on the details.

Re: AGI is an engineering problem, not a model training problem

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Does it make it any easier if we simplify the problem to: what is the human doing that makes (him) intelligent ? Sure, it doesn’t have to be literally just the brain, but my point is you’d need very new physics to answer the question “how does a biological human have general intelligence?”

Suppose dogs invent their own idea of intelligence but they say only dogs have it. Do we think new physics would be required to validate dog intelligence ?

The claim that only dogs have intelligence is open for criticism, just like every other claim.

I’m not sure what your point is, because the source of the claim is irrelevant anyway. The reason I think that humans have general intelligence is not that humans say that they have it.

Re: AGI is an engineering problem, not a model training problem

#254

There is a reason why LLM's are architected the way they are and why thinking is bolted on. The architecture has to allow for gradient descent to be a viable training strategy, this means no branching (routing is bolted on). And the training data has to exist, you can't find millions of pages depicting every thought a person went through before writing something. And such data can't exist because most thoughts aren't…

> And the training data has to exist, you can't find millions of pages depicting every thought a person went through before writing something. And such data can't exist because most thoughts aren't even language.

It would be interesting if in the very distant future, it becomes viable to use advanced brain scans as training data for AI systems. That might be a more realistic intermediate between the speculations into AGI and Uploaded Intelligence.

Re: AGI is an engineering problem, not a model training problem

#255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah. The real philosophical headache is that we still haven’t solved the hard problem of consciousness, and we’re disappointed because we hoped in our hearts (if not out loud) that building AI would give us some shred of insight into the rich and mysterious experience of life we somehow incontrovertibly perceive but can’t explain. Instead we got a machine that can outwardly present as human, can do tasks we had thoug…

I think Metzinger nailed it, we aren't conscious at all. We confuse the map for the territory in thinking the model we build to predict our other models is us. We are a collection of models a few of which create the illusion of consciousness. Someone is going to connect a handful of already existing models in a way that gives an AI the same illusion sooner rather than later. That will be an interesting day.

What does it mean for consciousness to be an illusion? That "illusion" is the bedrock for our shared definition of reality.

Re: AGI is an engineering problem, not a model training problem

#256
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're fixated on human intelligence but a computer cannot even emulate the intelligence of a honeybee or an ant.

How do you mean? AFAICT computers can definitely do that. Sure, it won't be the size of an ant, but we definitely have models running on computers that have much more complexity than the life of an ant.

Having aptitude in mathematics was once considered the highest form of human intelligence, yet a simple pocket calculator can beat the pants off most humans at arithmetic tasks.

Conversely, something we regard as simple, such as selecting a key from a keychain and using to unlock a door not previously encountered is beyond the current abilities of any machine.

I suspect you might be underestimating the real complexity of what bees and ants do. Self-driving cars as well seemed like a simpler problem before concerted efforts were made to build one.

Re: AGI is an engineering problem, not a model training problem

#257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you mean? AFAICT computers can definitely do that. Sure, it won't be the size of an ant, but we definitely have models running on computers that have much more complexity than the life of an ant.

Having aptitude in mathematics was once considered the highest form of human intelligence, yet a simple pocket calculator can beat the pants off most humans at arithmetic tasks. Conversely, something we regard as simple, such as selecting a key from a keychain and using to unlock a door not previously encountered is beyond the current abilities of any machine. I suspect you might be underestimating the real complexit…

> Having aptitude in mathematics was once considered the highest form of human intelligence, yet a simple pocket calculator can beat the pants off most humans at arithmetic tasks.

Mathematics has been a lot more than arithmetic for... a very long time.

Re: AGI is an engineering problem, not a model training problem

#258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even more fundamental than science, there is missing philosophy, both in us regarding these systems, and in the systems themselves. An AGI implemented by an LLM needs to, at the minimum, be able to self-learn by updating its weights, self-finetune, otherwise it quickly hits a wall between its baked-in weights and finite context window. What is the optimal "attention" mechanism for choosing what to self-finetune with,…

Nah. The real philosophical headache is that we still haven’t solved the hard problem of consciousness, and we’re disappointed because we hoped in our hearts (if not out loud) that building AI would give us some shred of insight into the rich and mysterious experience of life we somehow incontrovertibly perceive but can’t explain. Instead we got a machine that can outwardly present as human, can do tasks we had thoug…

It doesn't seem clear that there is necessarily any connection between consciousness and intelligence. If anything, LLMs are evidence of the opposite. It also isn't clear what the functional purpose of consciousness would be in a machine learning model of any kind. Either way, it's clear it hasn't been an impediment to the advancement of machine learning systems.

Re: AGI is an engineering problem, not a model training problem

#259

Nah,this sounds like a modern remix of Japan’s Fifth Generation Computing project. They thought that by building large databases and with Prolog they would bring upon an AI renaissance. Just hand waving some “distributed architecture” and trying to duct tape modules together won’t get us any closer to AGI. The building blocks themselves, the foundation, has to be much better. Arguably the only building block that LLM…

Right.

We can certainly get much more utility out of current architectures with better engineering, as "agents" have shown, but to claim that AGI is possible with engineering alone is wishful thinking. The hard part is building systems that showcase actual intelligence and reasoning, that are able to learn and discover on their own instead of requiring exorbitantly expensive training, that don't hallucinate, and so on. We still haven't cracked that nut, and it's becoming increasingly evident that the current approaches won't get us there. That will require groundbreaking compsci work, if it's possible at all.

Re: AGI is an engineering problem, not a model training problem

#260
post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. We claim that biological humans have general intelligence because we are biased and arrogant, and experience hubris. I'm not saying we aren't generally intelligent, but a big part of believing we are is because not believing so would be psychologically and culturally disastrous. I fully expect that, as our attempts at AGI become more and more sophisticated, there will be a long period where there are inte…

We claim that biological humans have general intelligence because we are biased and arrogant, and experience hubris. No, we say it because - in this context - we are the definition of general intelligence. Approximately nobody talking about AGI takes the "G" to stand for "most general possible intelligence that could ever exist." All it means is "as general as an average human." So it doesn't matter if humans are "re…

If you don't believe me, go back to the introduction of the term[1]:

By advanced artificial general intelligence, I mean AI systems that rival or surpass the human brain in complexity and speed, that can acquire, manipulate and reason with general knowledge, and that are usable in essentially any phase of industrial or military operations where a human intelligence would otherwise be needed. Such systems may be modeled on the human brain, but they do not necessarily have to be, and they do not have to be "conscious" or possess any other competence that is not strictly relevant to their application. What matters is that such systems can be used to replace human brains in tasks ranging from organizing and running a mine or a factory to piloting an airplane, analyzing intelligence data or planning a battle.

It's pretty clear here that the notion of "artificial general intelligence" is being defined as relative to human intelligence.

Or see what Ben Goertzel - probably the one person most responsible for bringing the term into mainstream usage - had to say on the issue[2]:

“Artificial General Intelligence”, AGI for short, is a term adopted by some researchers to refer to their research field. Though not a precisely defined technical term, the term is used to stress the “general” nature of the desired capabilities of the systems being researched -- as compared to the bulk of mainstream Artificial Intelligence (AI) work, which focuses on systems with very specialized “intelligent” capabilities. While most existing AI projects aim at a certain aspect or application of intelligence, an AGI project aims at “intelligence” as a whole, which has many aspects, and can be used in various situations. There is a loose relationship between “general intelligence” as meant in the term AGI and the notion of “g-factor” in psychology [1]: the g-factor is an attempt to measure general intelligence, intelligence across various domains, in humans.

Note the reference to "general intelligence" as a contrast to specialized AI's (what people used to call "narrow AI" even though he doesn't use the term here). And the rest of that paragraph shows that the whole notion is clearly framed in terms of comparison to human intelligence.

That point is made even more clear when the paper goes on to say:

Modern learning theory has made clear that the only way to achieve maximally general problem-solving ability is to utilize infinite computing power. Intelligence given limited computational resources is always going to have limits to its generality. The human mind/brain, while possessing extremely general capability, is best at solving the types of problems which it has specialized circuitry to handle (e.g. face recognition, social learning, language learning;

Note that they chose to specifically use the more precise term "maximally general problem solving ability when referring to something beyond the range of human intelligence, and then continued to clearly show that the overall idea is - again - framed in terms of human intelligence.

One could also consult Marvin Minsky's words[3] from back around the founding of the overall field of "Artificial Intelligence" altogether:

“In from three to eight years, we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being. I mean a machine that will be able to read Shakespeare, grease a car, play office politics, tell a joke, have a fight.

Simply put, with a few exceptions, the vast majority of people working in this space simply take AGI to mean something approximately like "human like intelligence". That's all. No arrogance or hubris needed.

[1]: https://web.archive.org/web/20110529215447/http://www.foresi...

[2]: https://goertzel.org/agiri06/%255B1%255D%2520Introduction_No...

[3]: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ado7069

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