America’s incarceration rate is in decline • Hacker News Board

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#251

Post by matthewdgreen » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 5:53 AM UTC

YinglingHeavy wrote: post #157

ericmcer wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is insane to just confidently assert that the only factor in the decrease in crime is Lead. Treating an insanely nuanced issue as an absolute doesn't make your argument more compelling, it is actually kind of baffling.

But it's so satisfying to one's ego that a single cause is the issue. All complexity of societal changes in the last 50 years can be outmanuevered. Simplification is sexy.

It’s satisfying to know that we’ve eliminated a major environmental toxin with so many awful effects. It doesn’t mean that lead explains everything, but it is a lot better than the “we built enough prisons to lock up all the bad guys, maybe we should build more” alternative hypothesis/proposal I’ve heard.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#252

Post by forgotoldacc » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 5:53 AM UTC

TrueTom wrote: post #229

dcow wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We may have swung the pendulum a little too far towards deliberate, though. The birthrate right now is below replacement rate, meaning that if we keep going like this (even if the birthrate doesn't keep trending down and holds steady) that society will die off. We need to figure out how to build an economy and society that can facilitate deliberate responsible parentage younger and more often. Luckily we have generat…

This is not going to happen when you can just import people from other countries.

Every country on earth is trending downwards. A lot of currently immigrant-exporting countries (e.g. Vietnam, India, Mexico) have sub-replacement levels of birth. They're going to have absolutely massive problems in a few decades when a lot of their youth have left and they're stuck with an inverted population pyramid.

There's a tendency for people in developed (particularly western) countries to feel entitled to immigrants. It's weird to think you'll not only have people changing your diapers when you're 90, but that your country should actively bring in people and deprive poorer countries of similar care, then leave those poor working class immigrants to fend for themselves once they're old.

It's the same mindset that drove society since the 1950s: it makes my life convenient, who cares if it makes life harder for people far from me or after I'm dead? And now we're all living with the accumulated consequences of all that (depleted ozone, climate change, ocean acidification, microplastics, oceans stripped of life, teflon pollution, deforestation, CO2 rising rapidly).

The world needs better solutions.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#253

Post by SchemaLoad » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 5:53 AM UTC

mymythisisthis wrote: post #128

throwaway_2121 wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lack of boredom is also a factor. Social media and modern games are keeping them occupied.

People also have fewer possessions worth stealing and trying to hock? It's not like TVs and radios cost that much anymore. People wear less jewelry. Though this is not a significant factor, it might be worth putting on the list still.

Bicycles and tools seem to be the main things still stolen. They are often left unattended locked to poles or in the back of cars which can be easily broken in to, and can be immediately flipped for a lot of money.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#254

Post by palmotea » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 5:54 AM UTC

TrueTom wrote: post #229

dcow wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We may have swung the pendulum a little too far towards deliberate, though. The birthrate right now is below replacement rate, meaning that if we keep going like this (even if the birthrate doesn't keep trending down and holds steady) that society will die off. We need to figure out how to build an economy and society that can facilitate deliberate responsible parentage younger and more often. Luckily we have generat…

This is not going to happen when you can just import people from other countries.

> This is not going to happen when you can just import people from other countries.

That's basically the same solution as dumping toxic waste overseas: you're just shifting the problem (depopulation) to someplace poorer and probably less able to deal with it.

Birthrates are declining everywhere, and the current global fertility rate is at replacement (so don't expect it to stay that high). In the future, there's going to be no magical place from which you can "import" all the people you need, because you chose not to make them yourself.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#255

Post by matthewdgreen » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 5:55 AM UTC

rawgabbit wrote: post #16

This is good news. The level of crime and number of offenders has decreased. Quotes from the article: > As of 2016—the most recent year for which data are available—the average man in state prison had been arrested nine times, was currently incarcerated for his sixth time, and was serving a 16-year sentence. > But starting in the late 1960s, a multidecade crime wave swelled in America, and an unprecedented number of…

The prison industry is very profitable and influential. If prison populations are dropping naturally, you might imagine that politicians might start looking for some new population to incarcerate.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#256

Post by palmotea » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 6:00 AM UTC

wredcoll wrote: post #239

b112 wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is your proof that it will not decline further? If you have no proof, then at the very least the cause must be investigated. After all, the concern is that the current rate of declining birth rate, means extinction in a few centuries. You don't just shrug that off and say "oh well, it'll probably be just fine."

We don't just shrug off the fantasy that there will be zero children born in "a couple of centuries"?? What on earth am I reading?

> We don't just shrug off the fantasy that there will be zero children born in "a couple of centuries"??

That's not a fantasy, it's the inevitable outcome of sub-replacement fertility, which is the state we find ourselves in (though my intuition says it will take longer than "a couple of centuries" to get to zero).

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#257

Post by bevr1337 » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 6:01 AM UTC

dcow wrote: post #219

strict9 wrote: post #12

> Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 200…

We may have swung the pendulum a little too far towards deliberate, though. The birthrate right now is below replacement rate, meaning that if we keep going like this (even if the birthrate doesn't keep trending down and holds steady) that society will die off. We need to figure out how to build an economy and society that can facilitate deliberate responsible parentage younger and more often. Luckily we have generat…

> The birthrate right now is below replacement rate, meaning that if we keep going like this (even if the birthrate doesn't keep trending down and holds steady) that society will die off.

Why? Why are we sure that the population will not settle? Or that our increased productivity won't offset a change in labor?

I do worry societies will fail to handle side effects like the temporary increased demand for elder care, but no real fear of total societal collapse.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#258

Post by solatic » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 6:07 AM UTC

dcow wrote: post #219

strict9 wrote: post #12

> Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 200…

We may have swung the pendulum a little too far towards deliberate, though. The birthrate right now is below replacement rate, meaning that if we keep going like this (even if the birthrate doesn't keep trending down and holds steady) that society will die off. We need to figure out how to build an economy and society that can facilitate deliberate responsible parentage younger and more often. Luckily we have generat…

Or, you continue to grow the population through immigration.

The US is unique (or maybe there are a handful of others, I don't know) in its ability to welcome immigrants who, within two generations, largely see themselves as Americans first and not as the identity of their grandparents. American identity politics has eroded this somewhat but it is still largely true, for example, that grandchildren of immigrants will usually have a very poor grasp of their grandparents' native languages.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#259

Post by matwood » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 6:08 AM UTC

mymythisisthis wrote: post #128

throwaway_2121 wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lack of boredom is also a factor. Social media and modern games are keeping them occupied.

People also have fewer possessions worth stealing and trying to hock? It's not like TVs and radios cost that much anymore. People wear less jewelry. Though this is not a significant factor, it might be worth putting on the list still.

I was wondering about this the other day. Do people even steal car radios/amps/subs anymore? When I was a kid in the 90s, having your car radio stolen was typical.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#260

Post by motorest » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 6:12 AM UTC

dcow wrote: post #219

strict9 wrote: post #12

> Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 200…

We may have swung the pendulum a little too far towards deliberate, though. The birthrate right now is below replacement rate, meaning that if we keep going like this (even if the birthrate doesn't keep trending down and holds steady) that society will die off. We need to figure out how to build an economy and society that can facilitate deliberate responsible parentage younger and more often. Luckily we have generat…

> We may have swung the pendulum a little too far towards deliberate, though. The birthrate right now is below replacement rate, meaning that if we keep going like this (even if the birthrate doesn't keep trending down and holds steady) that society will die off.

The US alone doubled it's population since the 1950s. Enough scaremongering.