Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

"AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

sparktoro.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

251–260 of 285 posts

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#251

Post by Imustaskforhelp »

theSherwood wrote: post #145
Imustaskforhelp wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let me give my two cents. I remember when people used to think ai models are all the rage and one day we are gonna get super intelligence. I am not sure If we can call the current sota models that. Maybe, maybe not. But a little disappointing. Now everyones saying that ai agents are the hype and the productivity gains are in that, the Darwin Gödel paper which was recently released for example. On the same day (yester…

LLMs have only really been around a handful of years and what they are capable of is shocking. Maybe LLMs hit a wall and plateau. Maybe it's a few years before there's another breakthrough that results in another step-change in capabilities. Maybe not. We can focus on the hype and the fraud and the marketing and all the nonsense, but it's missing the forest for the trees. We genuinely have seen a shocking increase in…

I may be wrong,I usually am but wasn't ai basically possible even in the 1970s but back then there were of course no gpus and basically alexnet showed that gpu are really effective for ai and that is what basically created the ai snowballing.

I am not sure,but in my opinion, a hardware limitation might be real. These models are training on 100k gpus and like the whole totality of internet. I am not sure but I wouldn't be too certain of ai.

Also,maybe I am biased.is it wrong that I want ai to just stay here,at the moment it is right now. It's genuinely good but anything more feels to me as if it might be terrifying (if the ai companies hype genuinely comes true)

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#252

Post by palmotea »

sumeno wrote: post #204
kunzhi wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think any of those companies learned a lesson.

Sure they did, or at least the ones who survived did. Offshoring went from the thing that was going to kill the US Software Engineering industry to a fairly minor portion of it with US based engineers being even more in demand than they were before

> Sure they did, or at least the ones who survived did. Offshoring went from the thing that was going to kill the US Software Engineering industry to a fairly minor portion of it with US based engineers being even more in demand than they were before

Huh? Offshoring is a fairly major component of my employer's workforce, and the US software engineering staff has dwindled (along with a lot of other departments). We moved into a much smaller building recently.

Now we work on godawful blended teams with the worse time-zone difference possible (initially projects we either all India or all US, until the power that be felt the need to push costs down further).

It's the same at my friend's employers, if they're of any size.

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#253

Post by reaperducer »

palmotea wrote: post #252
sumeno wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure they did, or at least the ones who survived did. Offshoring went from the thing that was going to kill the US Software Engineering industry to a fairly minor portion of it with US based engineers being even more in demand than they were before

> Sure they did, or at least the ones who survived did. Offshoring went from the thing that was going to kill the US Software Engineering industry to a fairly minor portion of it with US based engineers being even more in demand than they were before Huh? Offshoring is a fairly major component of my employer's workforce, and the US software engineering staff has dwindled (along with a lot of other departments). We mo…

Offshoring is a fairly major component of my employer's workforce

Your employer is not the only employer.

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#254

Post by palmotea »

reaperducer wrote: post #253
palmotea wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Sure they did, or at least the ones who survived did. Offshoring went from the thing that was going to kill the US Software Engineering industry to a fairly minor portion of it with US based engineers being even more in demand than they were before Huh? Offshoring is a fairly major component of my employer's workforce, and the US software engineering staff has dwindled (along with a lot of other departments). We mo…

Offshoring is a fairly major component of my employer's workforce Your employer is not the only employer.

I never said it was, but I'm not the only person I know in this situation, and the people in India I work have worked for other major Western companies. I also don't work at someplace like bank, where technology is seen as pure cost, but someplace where the main products are mostly software so its a strategic investment.

It just think it's pretty unbelievable that offshoring is a "a fairly minor portion" of the "US Software Engineering industry." It didn't totally kill it, like some overly pessimistic (or enthusiastic, depending on their perspective) people may have predicted, but it would take a lot of evidence to convince me it's not a major part of it.

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#255

Post by sponaugle »

touisteur wrote: post #233
bigbuppo wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet there's plenty of evidence that having three pilots in the cockpit is usually a better option when the inevitable happens.

For those who can stomach it, reading aviation accident reports, listening to actual recorded voice footage, you very often read about the cognitive load of a two-person team trying to get through a shitty moment. Richard de Crespigny, who flew the Quantas A380 that blew one of its engines after a departure from Changi, explains very clearly and in a gripping way the amount of stuff happening while trying to save an…

Agree 100%. Watch a few videos on youtube from Mentour Pilot. The cognitive load is such a huge factor in so many accidents and close calls. There are also equally many accidents that could have been prevented with just a bit more automation and fault detection. Perhaps the most amazing thing is that after an accident, it can take years to get a real corrective action across the industry. It would be like level 10 CVEs taking 5 years to get patched!

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#256

Post by bdangubic »

reaperducer wrote: post #253
palmotea wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Sure they did, or at least the ones who survived did. Offshoring went from the thing that was going to kill the US Software Engineering industry to a fairly minor portion of it with US based engineers being even more in demand than they were before Huh? Offshoring is a fairly major component of my employer's workforce, and the US software engineering staff has dwindled (along with a lot of other departments). We mo…

Offshoring is a fairly major component of my employer's workforce Your employer is not the only employer.

you should look up numbers for this before posting :)

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#257

Post by Izkata »

uludag wrote: post #85
eranation wrote: post #16

My personal thoughts on this are - A good lawyer + AI will likely win in court against a non lawyer with AI who would likely win in court against just an AI - A good software engineer + AI will ship features faster / safer vs a non engineer with AI, who will beat just AI - A good doctor + AI will save more lives than a non doctor + AI, who will perform better than just AI As long as a human has a marginal boost to AI…

I've grown to believe the following more extreme (or maybe reasonable) version of what you said: - A good lawyer with or without AI will likely win in court against a mediocre lawyer with AI - A good SWE with or without AI will likely ship features faster/safer than a mediocre engineer with AI - A good doctor with or without AI will save more lives than a mediocre doctor with AI. I've experimented with this personall…

I figure by "doctor" they're thinking of a GP, who most people only ever see taking measurements and diagnosing things, not actually doing physical things like a surgeon.

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#258

Post by bluefirebrand »

ookblah wrote: post #247
bluefirebrand wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if you don't like or want to mentor junior devs then you don't value human connections If you don't like or want to mentor the younger generation then you are actively sabotaging the future of society because those people are the future of society Why do I care about the future of society? Because I still have to live in it for another few decades

alright, we can agree to disagree because this so obviously touching a chord with you and you're now literally making sweeping assumptions based on things i've never said. maybe i like taking care of my friends kids, volunteering, or doing other things that contribute to the "future of society"? personally, i think mentoring junior devs is slightly lower on the priority list, but that's my opinion. seriously, how arr…

> maybe i like taking care of my friends kids, volunteering, or doing other things that contribute to the "future of society

That's great, that doesn't absolve you of your responsibility to also mentor juniors at work though

Those are different tasks in different worlds and they all need doing

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#259

Post by mythrwy »

AstroBen wrote: post #84
lz400 wrote: post #32

not all of them, but that's not the issue, the issue is 100 engineers + AI replacing 500 engineers

This assumes the amount of work available is static. If the cost to produce software reduces by 80% then suddenly many more projects are viable, needing more engineers

How much software do we actually need though?

I'm a little embarrassed to admit this, but over the past 15 years of my career I have worked on a few products the world really didn't need at all (nor want). I was paid, and life went on but it was a misallocation of resources.

I suppose now someone can build stuff the world doesn't need a lot easier.

Post reply on HN