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Watching o3 guess a photo's location is surreal, dystopian and entertaining

simonwillison.net

251–260 of 453 posts

Re: Watching o3 guess a photo's location is surreal, dystopian and entertaining

#251
post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Super cool, man. Watching pro Geoguessr is my latest break-time activity, these geo-gods never cease to impress me. One thing I'm curious about - in high level play, how much of the meta involves knowing characteristics about the photography/equipment/etc. that Google used when they shot it? Frequently I'll watch rainbolt immediately know an African country from nothing but the road, is there something I'm missing?

Meh, meta is so boring and uninteresting to me personally. Knowing you're in Kenya because of the snorkel, that's just simple memorization. Pick up on geography, architecture, language, sun and street position; that's what I love. It's clearly necessary to compete at the high level though.

How is stuff like geography, architecture, or language not memorization either?

Re: Watching o3 guess a photo's location is surreal, dystopian and entertaining

#252
post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Geoguessr pro zi8gzag tried out one of the AIs in a video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQKoDSoxRAY It was indeed extremely impressive and for sure would have annihilated me, but I believe it would have no chance to beat zi8gzag or any other top player. But give it a year or two and I'm sure it will crush any human player. Geoguessr is, afaict, primarily about rote memorization of various features (such as types o…

Looks like that video uses Gemini 2.0 (probably Flash) in streaming mode (via AI studio) from a few months ago. Gemini 2.5 might do better, but in my explorations so far o3 is hugely more capable than even Gemini 2.5 right now.

Try Alibaba's https://chat.qwen.ai/ Activating reasoning

Re: Watching o3 guess a photo's location is surreal, dystopian and entertaining

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which also fits with how it performs at software engineering (in my experience). Great at boilerplate code, tests, simple tutorials, common puzzles but bad at novel and complex things.

Yep. But wonderful at aggregating details from twelve different man pages to write a shell script I didn't even know was possible to write using the system utils

I use it for this a lot.

Re: Watching o3 guess a photo's location is surreal, dystopian and entertaining

#254

For all of the images I've tried, the base model (e.g. 4o) already has a ~95% accurate idea of where the photo is, and then o3 does so much tool use only to confirm its intuition from the base model and slightly narrow down. For OP's initial image, 4o in fact provides a more accurate initial guess of Carmel-by-the-Sea (d=~100mi The clue is in the CoT - you can briefly see the almost correct location as the very first…

Did you try https://chat.qwen.ai/ with reasoning on?

Re: Watching o3 guess a photo's location is surreal, dystopian and entertaining

#255

For all of the images I've tried, the base model (e.g. 4o) already has a ~95% accurate idea of where the photo is, and then o3 does so much tool use only to confirm its intuition from the base model and slightly narrow down. For OP's initial image, 4o in fact provides a more accurate initial guess of Carmel-by-the-Sea (d=~100mi The clue is in the CoT - you can briefly see the almost correct location as the very first…

4o is already really good. For most of the pictures I tried they gave comparable results. However for one image 4o was only able to narrow it down the the country level (even with your CoT prompt it listed three plausible countries) while o3 was able to narrow it down to the correct area in the correct city, being off by only about 500m. That's an impressive jump

Did you try reasoning https://chat.qwen.ai/? I was very successful with it

Re: Watching o3 guess a photo's location is surreal, dystopian and entertaining

#256
post #63

I play competitive Geoguessr at a fairly high level, and I wanted to test this out to see how it compares. It's astonishingly good. It will use information it knows about you to arrive at the answer - it gave me the exact trailhead of a photo I took locally, and when I asked it how, it mentioned that it knows I live nearby. However, I've given it vacation photos from ages ago, and not only in tourist destinations eit…

I find this type of problem is what current AI is best at: where the actual logic isn't very hard, but it requires pulling together and assimilating a huge amount of fuzzy, known information from various sources They are, after all, information-digesters

“best where the actual logic isn’t very hard”?

yeah, well it’s also one of the top scorers on the Math olympiads

Re: Watching o3 guess a photo's location is surreal, dystopian and entertaining

#257
post #249
post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not at all. Models have no invisible internal state that they can access between prompts. If you ask "how did you know that?" you are effectively asking "given the previous transcript of our conversation, come up with a convincing rationale for what you just said".

On the other hand, since they "think in writing" they also do not keep any reasoning secret from us. Whatever they actually did is based on past transcript plus training.

Right but the reasoning/thinking is _also_ explained as being partially or completely performative. This is made obvious when mistakes that show up in chain of thought _don't_ result in mistakes in the final answer.l (a fairly common phenomenon). It is also explained more simply by the training objective (next token prediction) and loss function encouraging plausible looking answers.

Re: Watching o3 guess a photo's location is surreal, dystopian and entertaining

#258
post #249
post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not at all. Models have no invisible internal state that they can access between prompts. If you ask "how did you know that?" you are effectively asking "given the previous transcript of our conversation, come up with a convincing rationale for what you just said".

On the other hand, since they "think in writing" they also do not keep any reasoning secret from us. Whatever they actually did is based on past transcript plus training.

That writing isn't the only "thinking" though. Some thinking can happen in the course of generating a single token, as shown by the ability to answer a question without any intermediate reasoning tokens. But as we've all learnt this is a less powerful and more error-prone mode of thinking.

So that is to say I think a small amount of secret reasoning would be possible, e.g. if the location is known or guessed from the beginning by another means and the reasoning steps are made up to justify the conclusion.

The more clearly sound the reasoning steps are, the less plausible that scenario is.

Re: Watching o3 guess a photo's location is surreal, dystopian and entertaining

#259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find this type of problem is what current AI is best at: where the actual logic isn't very hard, but it requires pulling together and assimilating a huge amount of fuzzy, known information from various sources They are, after all, information-digesters

Which also fits with how it performs at software engineering (in my experience). Great at boilerplate code, tests, simple tutorials, common puzzles but bad at novel and complex things.

Definitely matches my experience as well. I've been working away on a very quirky, non-idiomatic 3D codebase, and LLMs are a mixed bag there. Y is down, there's no perspective distortion or Z buffer, there are no meshes, it's a weird place.

It's still useful to save me from writing 12 variations of x1 = sin(r2) - cos(r1) while implementing some geometric formula, but absolutely awful at understanding how those fit into a deeply atypical environment. Also have to put blinders on it. Giving it too much context just throws it back in that typical 3D rut and has it trying to slip in perspective distortion again.

Re: Watching o3 guess a photo's location is surreal, dystopian and entertaining

#260
This is somewhat interesting, but I should note that the company Geospy [1] already has an AI tool to locate where a photo is taken, though it is now limited to law enforcement and intelligence agencies only. See this article [2] by 404 Media for more information.

[1] https://geospy.ai/

[2] https://www.404media.co/the-powerful-ai-tool-that-cops-or-st...

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