Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

molsonhart.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

251–260 of 1001 posts

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#251

Post by smcl »

bluGill wrote: post #181
smcl wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is the US already experienced Trump 1.0, so it was presumably easy for many to assume that Trump 2.0 would follow broadly the same pattern and that there'd be an "adult in the room" somewhere to say "this will crash the world economy and do three consecutive 9/11s worth of damage to the stock market". So even though there are some very silly people in very high places saying some very wild things, the assum…

The amazing things to me is people still are not asking why people are so mad about the state of things they voted for Trump in the first place. Trump is the only one promising to make some changes to make life better for those who don't want to go to college. "Maybe he will, maybe he won't, but everyone else is ignoring us" is what I keep hearing when I listen to those people. Fix health care - socialism isn't the o…

Do you think Trump has some ideas on fixing healthcare or school? Is there even a consensus on what needs fixed?

You've said re healthcare that "socialism isn't the answer" - assuming you mean "I don't want a single-payer or free-at-the-point-of-use system" then I'm not sure what is the answer then. They've currently got some of the worst health outcomes on the planet despite spending amongst the most per-capita. They can either try more privatisation or maybe give something like Medicare For All a shot...

And re "fix school" you seem to suggest that shop class needs to be more widespread and maths teachers just need to be more enthusiastic? If the idea is to give kids more options then things like making sure that there are widely available apprenticeship programs and technical colleges to develop these skills, as well as strong (dare I say, union) jobs waiting for them when they complete their training.

And re maths teachers, if it's anything like the UK I suspect that teachers are being expected to do more with less at every stage of schooling. They handle more kids per class with fewer teaching assistants available. They need to handle more diverse lessons than before because there are insufficient PE teachers, Music teachers, Drama teachers etc). They're having a tougher time with kids behaviourally due to the rise of social media and a broader economic decline that causes a whole host of social issues that end up being schools' problem. Having poor school system is a symptom of greater societal problems, you don't fix schools without solving those (sidenote: you also don't solve those by pointing the finger at vulnerable communities like immigrants and LGBTQ+). Telling maths teachers to be a bit more enthusiastic doesn't fix any of that, it just makes the maths teachers hate their job a bit more.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#252

Post by rickdeckard »

like_any_other wrote: post #163
pjc50 wrote: post #35

> China generates over twice as much electricity per person today as the United States. Why? This appears to be completely wrong? All the stats I can find say that the US has about 4x the per capita electricity generation of China. Other than that it seems to be mostly good points, especially the overall one: you cannot do this overnight. > If you’re building a new factory in the United States, your investment will a…

> Other than that it seems to be mostly good points, especially the overall one: you cannot do this overnight. It's annoying Americans were given only two choices - offshoring is great and let's keep doing it, and, as you say, the opposite, meth-fueled let's bring back manufacturing overnight. The kind of slow and steady protection and promotion of home-grown industry that China and most of Asia so successfully used…

The weird part for me is this: While the economy was evolving, Production was offshored from US for cost-reasons, but also in part to focus on higher-skill labor in US, delegating the low-skill mass-production to China.

Over time, China also developed mid/high level skills, complemented their low-skill production offering with it and now competes in new industries, new tech, etc.

So...to compete with China, the country with 4x the US-population, the solution is that low-skill labor needs to return to US....?

Shouldn't instead the focus be to again foster mid/high-skill labor, moving the part that is offshored again towards low-skill labor...?

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#253

Post by mosburger »

bluGill wrote: post #140
npiano wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A genuine question, presuming no correct answer: what is to be done about it? China is reportedly on track to run more than 50% of global manufacturing by 2030, if the World Bank is correct. What would you do to act against this? Is doing nothing acceptable?

I would act against China - because China is making political moves that I do not like. (they are supporting Russia in Ukraine, they are building up to invade Taiwan, they are supporting terror in the middle east...) By acting against China that means I applaud moving manufacturing to Vietnam. I want to help Botswana grow - and I wish there were more countries in Africa I could name that seem to be on a good path (I…

There are plenty of countries in East Africa ripe for this, unfortunately China is beating us there, too. Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania ... all are pretty well positioned right now for development, but rn China is mostly the one doing it.

(Source - worked in int'l remittances w/ African receiving countries)

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#254

Post by myrmidon »

fendy3002 wrote: post #208
like_any_other wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Other than that it seems to be mostly good points, especially the overall one: you cannot do this overnight. It's annoying Americans were given only two choices - offshoring is great and let's keep doing it, and, as you say, the opposite, meth-fueled let's bring back manufacturing overnight. The kind of slow and steady protection and promotion of home-grown industry that China and most of Asia so successfully used…

Well, money talks and it's hard to choose the other option. On one hand bring manufacturing back to US and pay them higher, because otherwise the pay in McDonald's is better with a less demanding physical (cmiiw, don't live in US). On the other hand, keep manufacturing outside of US for cheaper labor to keep price low and having bigger margin. It's an easy choice to make. And again this is not a US specific problem,…

The thing is also that absolutely nothing about the overall situation changed meaningfully over the last 50 years or so.

People had the exact same concerns and fears when electronics manufacturing started shifting to Japan like 50 years ago-- they went in the same way up the value chain that China did, and they started losing a lot of the industry with rising wages, too, exactly like what we see with China => Vietnam/Indonesia/... nowadays.

I think 90% of the whole political debate about the economy is misplaced nostalgia combined with problematic local wealth inequality-- poor countries lifting themselves up by manufacturing stuff for low wages is how the whole system is actually supposed to work from my perspective; describing that as "ripping off the American people" is completely unhinged, misinformed self-delusion to me.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#255

Post by causal »

stronglikedan wrote: post #59

I don't think anyone underestimates that, as much as some people with the author's viewpoints would like it to be true. To paraphrase Kennedy: "We choose to [bring back manufacturing]. We choose to [bring back manufacturing] in this [or the next] decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skill…

Did you read the article? The author is advocating for manufacturing in the US, but is pointing out the ways these policies undermine that very goal.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#256

Post by bluGill »

ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #54
vishnugupta wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly! The regulatory apparatus has to be rewired. And then what happens when a new administration comes along 4-8 years down the line and decides to abandon some of those initiatives?

> The regulatory apparatus has to be rewired. That has its own issues. Not sure if it's still the case, but the Yangtze River used to be one of the most polluted water bodies on earth.

We can go too far into deregulation, but we are currently too far in regulation. Push for the correct middle ground.

I'm not sure exactly what the correct middle ground looks like. I do know that there are signs of a good system.

There can be no bribes in the system. All permits must have a clearly defined fee that is small and clearly covers the inspectors salary and no more. The vast majority of cases when you want to build it should be 30 minutes from applying for the permit to it being granted. The rules are clearly written up and so it isn't hard to look up the law and write up a permit that cannot be refused.

There are only rarely hearings. You have the right to do what you want on your property. If your neighbor doesn't like it for the most part they should have bought your property so you couldn't. You don't however have the right to let pollution escape your property - pollution isn't just things like chemicals, but also noise. In rural areas, or around airports we also give you rights to sun, wind, and airspace - in cities though you don't get to demand your garden isn't shaded. You don't get to tell someone what color to paint to use. You don't get to force any amount of parking (either minimum of maximum). You can't enforce building space (square foot, height). You don't get to tell someone not to run a business. You do get to require fire code such that any fire will not spread to your building, and if you want fire protection (which if you don't have you need to ensure smoke from an accidental fire won't affect the neighbors) the fire department can demand some additional features.

There is probably a lot more, and the above isn't quite correct either, but it at least gives a place to state the debate from.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#257

Post by cratermoon »

pjc50 wrote: post #182
dashundchen wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw a chart passing around from this Cato Institute survey (Cato is a right wing think tank) [0]. It made me laugh. > America would be better off if more Americans works in manufacturing than they do today. Agree 80%/Disagree 20% > I would be better off if I worked in a factory instead of my current field of work. Agree 25%/Disagree 73% [0] https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/2024-08/Globalizat...

They're going to end up with some sort of corvee forced labour scheme enforced by ICE, the logical conclusion of " other people should go work in the factories".

We already have that, it's called prison labor. The current regime will certainly ramp that up and throw even more people into forced labor camps.[1]

BTW we don't talk enough about the gigantic loophole in the thirteenth amendment: Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction. [emphasis added]

1 https://www.bloodinthemachine.com/p/flyover-country

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#258

Post by causal »

margorczynski wrote: post #133

Still, this kind of outsourcing of manufacturing (or even more food production) puts the US in an incredibly uncomfortable position, especially that China is its main geopolitical enemy. What if a war erupts? Suddenly the US cannot produce a lot of essential stuff - I think Covid was a good example of that happening. Of course the question is can this be done and what will be the price if so.

The author is not anti-US-manufacturing. He explained how the current tariff policy undermines US manufacturers. He is pointing out the obstacles and what we must do to overcome them. The obstacle is the way.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#259

Post by franktankbank »

elbasti wrote: post #156

Like OP, I work in manufacturing (after 15 years in startup land). I'm not as experienced as him, but I work in manufacturing that makes similar products on both sides of the US/Mexico border. Let me add some thoughts: 1) Capacity, not cost, is the main driver for nearshoring . All things being equal, a manufacturer would rather produce a product in the US than overseas. The cost of modern products is mostly parts &…

The cost of manufacturing your stuff is not labor dependent only because you are probably putting together low cost components made with cheap labor. What if you had to make the spring or the resistor or the little painted metal box? Could you do that without labor being the big cost?

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#260

Post by like_any_other »

rickdeckard wrote: post #252
like_any_other wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Other than that it seems to be mostly good points, especially the overall one: you cannot do this overnight. It's annoying Americans were given only two choices - offshoring is great and let's keep doing it, and, as you say, the opposite, meth-fueled let's bring back manufacturing overnight. The kind of slow and steady protection and promotion of home-grown industry that China and most of Asia so successfully used…

The weird part for me is this: While the economy was evolving, Production was offshored from US for cost-reasons, but also in part to focus on higher-skill labor in US, delegating the low-skill mass-production to China. Over time, China also developed mid/high level skills, complemented their low-skill production offering with it and now competes in new industries, new tech, etc. So...to compete with China, the count…

The problem is ecosystem effects. High-tech industries evolve from and depend on low-tech ones. There is a limit to how much they can be separated.
Post reply on HN