Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown • Hacker News Board

Re: Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown

#251

Post by intended » Tue, Mar 11, 2025, 6:05 AM UTC

andrewla wrote: post #135

voidhorse wrote: post #7

This administration is either intentionally performing market manipulation or is simply incompetent. Either way, we all lose. Hope the general populous is happy with their choice, lol.

Is there a specific aspect of the administration's policies which you believe are causing this? Candidates would include "actual impact of tariffs enacted" or "uncertainty about future tariffs" or the same things but with "geopolitical decisions" instead of tariffs. Or similarly "fiscal solvency" or "profile of government spending" etc. It's all well and good to make untestable post facto explanations based on vibes…

Tariffs are a well known ineffectual move by anyone with any experience in finance.

They are simply the addition of inefficiency to a market. You are taught this in any 101 Econ course, its part and parcel of learning how to draw supply and demand curves.

It is SO basic, that discussion of this on educated forums, is fear inducing.

Furthermore, this is a trade war based on vibes. This is not implemented with something like anti-dumping in mind. It’s not based on real flaws that the target countries can address.

It’s based on a fabricated alternate reality. This means that retaliatory tariffs have no economic cut off / threshold. It is only measured in behavioral and political stances. This is now a question of faith and pain tolerance, and not economic rationality.

This was already a possibility, known in November. At this point, for many institutional investors, worst case scenario contingency plans are being put into play.

Markets are a well known measure of whether economic policy is sound. IT isn’t the ONLY measure however, but it is one of several markers that are tracked to understand what people forecast outcomes, growth and expectations of the future are.

Re: Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown

#252

Post by intended » Tue, Mar 11, 2025, 6:13 AM UTC

csa wrote: post #222

vkou wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, sure, if their source of information about her policies is attack ads ran by her opponent, that says more about the media they watch than it does about her. She doesn't control the press, if it won't cover the policies, what is she to do?

> that says more about the media they watch than it does about her According to my family member who notices such things (and is not MAGA or conservative), Trump controlled most streaming ads/narratives, while Harris had more of the broadcast ads/narratives, especially for sports (minimally political). I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss this as a media silo issue.

It is 100% a media issue, and it’s not even a silo issue.

America has been part of an information war orchestrated by private media entities as part of… the dumbest most successful culture war we have seen.

You do not have a functional market place of ideas - it is not an issue of bias. IT is an issue of a monopolist on one side defining the narrative for everyone else, and ensuring no diversity of thought or narratives exist other than the ones that make political hay for the Republicans.

I know this, because it’s more than studied, it’s been replicated around the world.

Re: Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown

#253

Post by intended » Tue, Mar 11, 2025, 6:15 AM UTC

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #163

idle_zealot wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This analysis is lacking. People didn't vote for Trump because they analyzed his proposed economic policies and decided they would improve their situation. Almost nobody votes like that. There's general financial anxiety in the US, and he promised to fix it. What methods he proposed using are almost irrelevant, it's the rhetoric around them that sways voters. The narrative is now one of temporary hardship to excise t…

> The narrative is now one of temporary hardship to excise the supposed rot of the system that is the root cause of the aforementioned anxiety. OK. > The only way to sway general support away from this self-destructive administration is to offer another path towards alleviating the problems that voters face in their lives. The time when you could run on promises of competent administration alone has passed. Disagree.…

Faith is stronger than reason. Faith just requires a sign every so often to remind the faithful that the weakness wasn’t in their leader, it was in their zealousness and inability to believe in the greater invisible plan.

You are up against zealots and cult behavior, not being up front about this results in plans for a different reality.

Re: Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown

#254

Post by disgruntledphd2 » Tue, Mar 11, 2025, 6:22 AM UTC

johnnyanmac wrote: post #233

csa wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that says more about the media they watch than it does about her According to my family member who notices such things (and is not MAGA or conservative), Trump controlled most streaming ads/narratives, while Harris had more of the broadcast ads/narratives, especially for sports (minimally political). I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss this as a media silo issue.

That sounds exactly like a media solo issue. Except the fact that it's billionaire new media choose who gets to see what ad. I would be surpsied if part of big tech's choices on ads wasn't based on the leaders' own preferences. Especially in swing states

That would require a massive, massive conspiracy that would be difficult to hide.

Re: Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown

#255

Post by intended » Tue, Mar 11, 2025, 6:22 AM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #190

iamtheworstdev wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Higher interest rates generally reduce inflation by reducing spending, which in turn slows the economy and can lead to mass unemployment. But higher interest rates aren't what the Whitehouse wants.

The article is about interest rates, but the relevant point here is that higher interest rates are a way of slowing the economy, which reduces demand, which in turn reduces inflation. The White House wants to reduce prices without raising interest rates. So you need some other way of slowing down the economy. There’s lots of ways to do that, such as laying off federal workers.

That’s like saying amputation is a way to handle getting a paper cut. It’s in “not even wrong” territories of incorrectness.

Higher interest rates are about shifting investment priorities and loan rates. It increases the cost of lending, which results in people making choices about taking on risk and debt.

The reduction in loans being written, and the increase in interest being paid means that people start moving their money into savings, reducing the velocity of Money.

Laying off people from the government reduces the amount of money being used productively, but doesn’t do a thing to stop loans being written or money being printed.

It destroys the ability of the system to be efficient, resulting in more waste, and with more risk appetite + weaker regulators it results in the ability for people to break laws with impunity, resulting in captured or rent seeking markets.

This results in a recession, and a failed economy.

Re: Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown

#256

Post by intended » Tue, Mar 11, 2025, 6:29 AM UTC

yieldcrv wrote: post #227

SlightlyLeftPad wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With how quickly the tariffs are added and removed, if I were an entrepreneur I’d find it difficult to lean in on a risky investment that may be undermined or undercut by the eventual and sudden removal of tariffs. I’m curious how this plays out in reality.

so far, Apple says they'll invest $500bn to bring their supply chain stateside, Softbank $100bn-$200bn, "Stargate" Group is supposed to be $65bn and that was just to curry favor as well as get in front of the tariff plans we'll see if they follow through, but those count as American entrepreneurs too if there are disruptions on smaller scales, some people will take the risk, and there will be winners and losers as wi…

Tariffs don’t achieve this, and it misdiagnoses the problem in the first place.

Manufacturing is now increasingly automated, so it doesn’t employ as many people anymore. This is an issue India faces as does every developing economy. Economic growth is increasingly dependent on service sector growth.

Moving supply chains also requires weaker labor laws, and lower salaries for workers, than minimum wage, to be competitive.

OSHA is a problem for factory owners, because it increases costs with the tradeoff of higher worker safety. In contrast, there are suicide nets around factories in China.

The American populace doesn’t want to work jobs at lower wages. The price for competitive goods requires firms to be cheap.

You are going to be subsidizing people to work in factories, for decades, if not a full century. All the while people will take aim at the subsidy, and then blame minimum wages and people who support labor laws. Ad infinitum.

Re: Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown

#257

Post by intended » Tue, Mar 11, 2025, 6:29 AM UTC

gs17 wrote: post #161

stefan_ wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same people also say "tariffs are going to bring us so much money" and "we are going to call it the External Revenue Service". So maybe don't read rationality into clueless vibe statements.

> we are going to call it the External Revenue Service To be fair to them (even if they're likely unaware), that was effectively a thing back in the 1800s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Revenue_Cutter_S... > The federal government desperately needed revenue, and determined to raise it chiefly from tariffs on imports. Strong enforcement of tariff laws could blunt rampant smuggling. Urged on by Secretary…

1800s

Re: Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown

#258

Post by AlecSchueler » Tue, Mar 11, 2025, 6:37 AM UTC

paxys wrote: post #49

The standard move is to hunker down for the next 4 years, keep buying low, and wait for Democrats to come back and fix things in their next term. The same cycle has repeated what, 5 times in the last 30 years?

The standard relationship with the US is gone, though. I've been moving everything out and it won't be coming back regardless of what happens in 4 years time.

Re: Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown

#259

Post by intended » Tue, Mar 11, 2025, 6:44 AM UTC

deepGem wrote: post #113

voidhorse wrote: post #7

This administration is either intentionally performing market manipulation or is simply incompetent. Either way, we all lose. Hope the general populous is happy with their choice, lol.

I don't know why there is this general vibe amongst technologists that they are somehow far superior in their thought process compared to the general populace. I have heard the words peasant class come up quite often in the tech circles. Why is this ? Aren't you part of the general populace ? At the risk of getting downvoted let me posit a different narrative. What if the past governments were just propping up growth…

I have the actual experience and knowledge to talk about this, having done my grunt work as the idiot analyst.

The American military is a massive source of employment for Americans, and has been the case for decades. It is the source of multiple careers, education opportunities and investment into core sectors for the economy.

Without looking at the numbers, I am going to bet the 35% increased hiring is not military forces. Given the spread I saw of government employment, I suspect its going to largely be nurses, doctors and grunts to do work in many of the understaffed government agencies.

Tariffs are a net negative for the Global Economy, and in this case tariffs are political in nature.

This means there is no economic cut off or action target countries can take to remedy the situation - only ‘vibe’ and ‘appearance’ related actions.

Counter tariffs are going to target Trump and Republican dominated regions. The cut offs here are extreme - they are a form of communication through mutually inflicted pain.

Since it’s America vs the world; Canada, Mexico, the UK, China, India - will coordinate to make trade between each other more efficient, so as to offset the costs imposed on their goods.

Since America has jettisoned its soft power, they have no tools to bring to the negotiating table, meaning that the only options for America are - endure / capitulate / escalate.

This is the emperor’s new clothes territory. The New Emperor is naked, but people believe that they must simply be unable to see the greater plan.

Re: Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown

#260

Post by intended » Tue, Mar 11, 2025, 6:59 AM UTC

deepGem wrote: post #186

rayiner wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I strongly suspect that free trade is good for the economy as a whole in the short to medium term, though has a negative effect on distribution (disproportionately benefitting those whose jobs can’t be easily outsourced). But in the long term it may destroy a country’s competitiveness by vitiating any comparative advantage.

I've thought long and hard about free trade. Ultimately, people want cheap products and free trade optimizes for price that's it. It's like this single objective function that disregards all other functions. So the competitive advantage for any country now boils down to the entire nation optimizing for cost. A country like China can do this, because the cost optimization for USA = lifting someone out of poverty in Ch…

The competitive advantage boils down to being able to do what is optimal for you to spend your time on. America can enrich a majority of the richest people on earth, by having a fraction of the populace working.

China has to put up nets on its factories and subsidize entire swathes of its economy, for decades, to be competitive.

Currently - the value of labor is being eroded by the value of automation. This is why it’s no longer possible for India to succeed by turning into a manufacturing powerhouse. The global option now is in having effective service industries. Generative AI is already throwing a wrench in that plan.

This is leaving ZERO room for people with ordinary resources, knowledge and skills.

The idea that free trade is the problem, may have held for a specific window in time. That window was small and has closed. The larger issue is automation, and the displacement of neophyte workers.

——-

My personal take - the challenge today is helping people actualize themselves. This is a very fuzzy term, and frankly it embarrasses me to use it. But we have better tools, practice, and science behind human thinking. I’ve used this knowledge practically, and I’ve seen results in team performance and motivation.