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The Demoralization is just Beginning

geohot.github.io

251–260 of 812 posts

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you lived in Denmark, Japan, China, Netherlands and some other countries in the past 10-15 years? I really don’t think you weigh in people’s personal preferences and general quality of life into your equations. There is a very big reason why there’s no more large swaths of immigrants from European and some Asian countries flocking into the US. Yes there is some, but the times when it was objectively much better…

Money buys you freedom to live you life anywhere you want, and do whatever you want. Do you think grinding away for low pay until your mid 60s, only to end up facing a collapsing pension system in your final years with little savings is the best way to spend your time on earth? Also how can a person that hasn't experienced the economic freedom the US provides to top talent accurately judge if their country of choice…

My friend, not everyone makes 150K/year. Like yes, we can do it, and choose our freedom because of the industry we live in. But you might be very disconnected from an average person’s life. Average or poorer person in the US does not get to choose where they retire either. I promise, 70 year retired old ojiisans over here in Tokyo don’t think their life would’ve been better if they lived in Oklahoma.

You guys think everyone wants the same as you do, but it really isn’t like that.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#253
post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you're missing is the role the U.S. has historically played in preserving and protecting democracy in the world and, particularly, Europe. If America was suddenly no longer a hegemon, it would be qualitatively different. There are other hegemons in the world that would step into the void left by the U.S., and it would be their influence that would be felt most the world over, including by the countries you named…

At this point, and from this point onward, some other hegemons sound darn good compared to US. russia aint one, they simply lack competence for anything grander than petty squables at their borders. Everybody hates them, inclusing all former soviet bloc countries and only deal with them when they have to. Ie China is not doing sudden backstabbing of its allies, strongarming weak at their weakest point. In contrary ie…

Why do you present China as an alternative? I’d you’re a western country, the CCP is not a body you want anything to do with unless you’re desperate. They do not share western values. If you don’t ally with the US, you really, really want to be a separate center of power, because everyone who isn’t US wants to exploit you dry and admits it openly.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#254

> I’m talking doubling the US population, bringing in all the factory workers, farmers, miners, engineers, literally anyone who produces value Based?? > Back the dollar by gold Oh haha lol No bud, gold isn't money.

Unrestricted immigration for basically anyone who can prove their mettle (whether by educational attainment, rigorous aptitude testing or just by earning money) is ballsy but could work. It would require US to start building a metric shitton of housing though, and fast. Otherwise you just get what Canada got, or worse. Gold standard? That's batshit insane. Like Karl Marx tier of bad fucking ideas on how to change the…

Even as somebody trying to get a US VISA, I think it is a bad idea. Whatever tests you use, there will be many millions trying to learn for the test, thereby massively taxing the immigration system and making it harder for the more genuinely skilled prospects.

BTW, merit VISAs already exist, and if you are rich there are investment VISAs. H1B is a cluster fuck, but it can be trivially fixed by allowing employees to switch employers.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think the US economy in particular has done a poor job of distributing the wealth it has created. The US financial system is structurally orientated towards distributing wealth poorly. It's an unavoidable economic fact that when someone spends newly created money there's a wealth transfer from currency holders to them (that's why counterfeiting is illegal), and in the US means there's a persistent, systematic tra…

I think this comment is a little bit reductive and conspiratorial, even if it gets first-order correlations correct. You don’t need a conspiracy, you just need a philosophy of small government and low regulation to let grifts expand through the financial parts of the economy. The history of financial regulation in the US is the banking industry finding new ways to evade regulation, which lead to moral hazards and pri…

To add to this point: We can look to China to see that the financialization of the economy, like it happened in the US, is not a natural law but can instead be restricted. China has explicitly said that they see the development of financial markets in the US as a problem for the US economy they decidedly aim to avoid.

Stories like what happened to Jack Ma have to be interpreted in that context, I think. In my reading that wasn't about politics at all, but about an unregulated peer to peer lending product (i.e. a tech based loan shark system for exploiting people in need) he was about to release.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#256
post #218

This feels too all over the place and contains a lot of assertions without evidence. I say this as a person who is very bearish about America. > The sun never set on the British empire. Now they put you in jail for memes. I’m pretty sure they put people in jail for the equivalent of memes during the imperial days, no? The king couldn’t put you away for speaking against him?

geohot is a deeply unserious person. (See also: his attempt at self-driving, and his "internship" at x/twitter under Elon)

His "attempt" at self-driving is better than most of the industry, at a fraction of the cost.

The man does and tries things. Man in the arena.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#257
post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Sweden and Denmark haven't been hegemons because they haven't needed to be. That's exactly right, and I used nearly exactly those words in a recent comment. Important to note: The free world - economically advanced democracies excluding the US - is the largest economy in the world, larger than the US by about 30%, with an even larger population. These countries have a historically unprecedented incentive to work mu…

That is not how it works, many of those countries will need to align with China or be conquered.

We're long past the point where we can say "how it works" from how it used to work.

The incentive is there now, when it wasn't before. Cooperation emerges under external pressures, almost as a rule.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#258
post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you can truly come up with an objective measure of wealth, I believe there might be a (quasi) Nobel Prize in economics for you. The reason economics is hard, in part, is that there isn't some core firmament you can rest on; there is no fundamental, provable truth. And yet, with fancy statistics and clever experimental design, you can still make intelligent statements and understand the world better. To me, economi…

I think some people need to step back and ponder what's the purpose of economics? Why do we even study it? What are we hoping to achieve in analyzing it? I can only think it began with the philosophy for making better decisions, solving problems, and improving society - particularly in the allocation of its resources. As so, I think a huge part of the problem with economics, including most economists, is that people…

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Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#259

I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. -there is more to an economy than manufacturing. Using manufacturing metrics to rate an economy is like scoring a soccer game based on how far your players run: in some contexts correlated with “winning” but in others it’s not. -gold is not a good currency or basis for monetary policy. -these ideas only sound self consistent withou…

> But solution point 1 — brain drain the rest of the world — is an absolutely first rate policy. The fact that the US requires newly-minted PhDs educated here to get a different visa or leave is absolutely self-defeating. We should be welcoming skilled immigration from everywhere. Even better, let them keep their visa and if they revoke their citizenship, we'll relocate their entire family if they come from a repress…

So many spies would happily take up that offer.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#260

I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. -there is more to an economy than manufacturing. Using manufacturing metrics to rate an economy is like scoring a soccer game based on how far your players run: in some contexts correlated with “winning” but in others it’s not. -gold is not a good currency or basis for monetary policy. -these ideas only sound self consistent withou…

The US is already the brain drain destination #1. Nowhere else can highly skilled people generate comparable levels of income.

I agree. One other thing that the US has that no other country has is freedom of speech.

My entire family was killed in my previous country for daring to speak up against the leader at the time. It has something that has shook me to my core. Now, even to this day, I cannot find another country besides the US who not only respects freedom of speech, but encourages it among its residents. I will not move to another country no matter how drastic it gets.

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