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TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

wsj.com

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Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#251

Post by chii »

jopsen wrote: post #240
dataflow wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Taiwan is hugely reliant on US defense guarantees. What I don't get is, in what universe is any US president going to engage militarily against China across the ocean, let alone the current one? The US population does not seem ecstatic to enter something that could turn into WWIII, which makes me feel that even a president in favor of this would quickly fail to do anything.

> What I don't get is, in what universe is any US president going to engage militarily against China across the ocean, let alone the current one? A managed escalation would blockade China, or at least ensure the rest of the free world never trades with China again. Similarly, a local conflict could ensure chip facilities in Taiwan aren't surrendered intact. The US doesn't have to win a hot conflict. Just start a cold…

> blockade China

which is why china is pre-emptively claiming ownership of the south china sea, in an attempt to prevent the ability for any blockades to form in the first place!

While on paper, the US makes "guarantees" about freedom of navigation, this is even less reliable than the toilet paper it is written on.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#252

Post by 827a »

protocolture wrote: post #243
safety1st wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right now is a very interesting moment in that the future is crystal clear and yet so many people of all persuasions don't want to accept it for so many different reasons * The USA is going to claw back whatever economic largesse it has granted to the rest of the world, and ultimately renege on many of its security guarantees, with the underlying reason being that it can no longer afford to be world police and pay fo…

Allies are good for America. Trade is good for America. Isolation has never been good for anyone. >The USA is going to claw back whatever economic largesse it has granted to the rest of the world The USA is going to stop bribing people to like them, an arrangement that suited the USA very well, but is difficult to articulate to seppos in general. >This is a net relative win for the US economically because once it cla…

Its easy to think in extremes, but the reality will be far more moderate than your characterization. Remember: US policies have a way of flip-flopping every two years as new Presidents and Senators take office, and its very likely that unless Trump can score some massive wins in 2025, Democrats will retake Congressional majority in 2026; the base is incited, if these comments are anything to look at.

But, the direction won't change: More isolationist, greater investment in homeland manufacturing and less global force projection, but still a significant and growing international trade presence, and a signatory to global security guarantees.

Here's how I put it: America bared the brunt three MAJOR, timeline-altering events in the past 25 years: 9/11, the global financial crisis, and COVID (I am not saying the rest of the world did not bare some of these, just that the US did). To think we'd just roll with the punches and there'd be no consequences of these is, frankly, ridiculous:

9/11 led to multiple forever wars that cost America an extreme amount of money and lives for almost no gain, not really even victory. Its lasting impact will be an America that is more hesitant to project force globally.

The GFC led to massive debt spending and an ongoing financial crisis that America still hasn't fully recovered from. Just when we were ramping up to start recovery, COVID hits and we do it all over again. Its lasting impact will be an America that is more hesitant to give away free stuff or take the raw end of trade deals.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#253

Post by nthingtohide »

zmgsabst wrote: post #184
safety1st wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right now is a very interesting moment in that the future is crystal clear and yet so many people of all persuasions don't want to accept it for so many different reasons * The USA is going to claw back whatever economic largesse it has granted to the rest of the world, and ultimately renege on many of its security guarantees, with the underlying reason being that it can no longer afford to be world police and pay fo…

Multipolar world order: Now that it’s become untenable for great powers to fight and they’re all facing regional instability and domestic unrest (EU, US, RUS, CN), we’ll see a century of consolidation and realignment at the regional/continental scale. ASEAN, China, E Asia, India, Russia; Middle East and South Asia; EU, UK, Russia; US, Canada, Latin America; South America (eg, Argentina, Brazil, and Ecuador); Africa (…

This is how I view the system in place for past few decades :

I consider US to be like brain of earth / humanity. Dollar Reserve Currency is like nerve signals. It can give that printed money to an African nation and make it buy wheat from Ukraine. Or give that money to Myanmar so that it can buy weapons from other countries. The whole setup is brilliant. Making one hand cooperate with another or hurt another if we extend the brain body analogy. US is holding a structural proverbial gun to other nations' head.

It is only a matter of time, when the body of humanity revolts against the excesses of brain's unrealistic demands.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#254

Post by shigawire »

protocolture wrote: post #243
safety1st wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right now is a very interesting moment in that the future is crystal clear and yet so many people of all persuasions don't want to accept it for so many different reasons * The USA is going to claw back whatever economic largesse it has granted to the rest of the world, and ultimately renege on many of its security guarantees, with the underlying reason being that it can no longer afford to be world police and pay fo…

Allies are good for America. Trade is good for America. Isolation has never been good for anyone. >The USA is going to claw back whatever economic largesse it has granted to the rest of the world The USA is going to stop bribing people to like them, an arrangement that suited the USA very well, but is difficult to articulate to seppos in general. >This is a net relative win for the US economically because once it cla…

>as long as the seppos keep the nukes to themselves while they remove themselves from the planet economically.

Big gamble, especially when we gut the DoE.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#255

Post by shigawire »

icegreentea2 wrote: post #235
dragonwriter wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The "clawing back" isn't simply a withdraw of resources back to America, it also requires structural fixes within America (mostly looking at the wealth inequality), as well as properly address the nativist embers that are currently lit. The political faction pushing this kind of thing (and viewing it as a clawback) is also the one fanning the nativist (and racist!) embers as political cover for while advancing poli…

Yeah, that's the problem eh? Both for the OP's projection, but also identifies the element that most centrist/technocratic political parties are missing. You need to address the nativist tendencies in your country. You can't just bulldoze through them. You need to address the wealth inequality. And yes, I think you -are- allowed some degree of "clawback", especially if it helps address the other two issues. I think A…

>You need to address the nativist tendencies in your country. You can't just bulldoze through them.

>You need to address the wealth inequality.

I'd suggest that you solve the former with the latter. The nativist tendencies are stoked by economic insecurity.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#257

Post by jurip »

jopsen wrote: post #240
dataflow wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Taiwan is hugely reliant on US defense guarantees. What I don't get is, in what universe is any US president going to engage militarily against China across the ocean, let alone the current one? The US population does not seem ecstatic to enter something that could turn into WWIII, which makes me feel that even a president in favor of this would quickly fail to do anything.

> What I don't get is, in what universe is any US president going to engage militarily against China across the ocean, let alone the current one? A managed escalation would blockade China, or at least ensure the rest of the free world never trades with China again. Similarly, a local conflict could ensure chip facilities in Taiwan aren't surrendered intact. The US doesn't have to win a hot conflict. Just start a cold…

> I still think the US has allies in Europe that would sanction China indefinitely. They'd probably also show up with something, if called.

China only needs to wait for a couple of years for Musk, Trump and Vance to have destroyed any remnants of the alliances, though.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#258

Post by 827a »

runako wrote: post #211
aurareturn wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Less likely but could. Chip fab is much more valuable than putting iPhones together.

Not being snarky here, but what is the benefit of a chip fab in Arizona, thousands of miles from the assembly lines where the chips will be used? I get why it would be important for niche (e.g. defense) applications, but is TSMC scale really needed?

These were early rumors, but I recall there being some hope that the first chips this factory would produce would be used for something made by Apple also in the United States, like the Mac Pro or something like the HomePod Mini.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#259

Post by jopsen »

world2vec wrote: post #52

Might be a silly question but considering the tensions between US and EU right now... What would happen to all these deals if ASML was was not allowed to sell their machines to US companies? I don't know enough to even speculate on these wild scenarios

There are parts manufactured around the world (including the US), and the lithography machines are NOT the only step with only one vendor.

US/EU economies are too intertwined to be decoupled. Just distancing the US economy from China is hard.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#260

Post by dev1ycan »

yo_yo_yo-yo wrote: post #170
ethbr1 wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They only need to make this appear real for 4, maybe 2 years, and can then reevaluate. I'd guess they looked at their options and decided this was the best hedge.

Now that I’ve calmed down a bit, I agree with your assessment. The optics game is so important, but Taiwan is in an impossible situation. If I were China, I would give them relative economic independence if they limit advanced process silicon to other countries and let Huawei and others monopolize the advanced nodes. The US at present does not appear to be a dependable partner.

They've said so as much that they plan to give it a similar to hong kong style government if they wilingly join, and from the latest trump Q&A it almost confirms that once America has TSMC fabs running in their country they won't care to protect Taiwan.

Being a realist Taiwan joining China willingly under those conditions before they basically technology transfer to America and make themselves worth much less (In China's eye), is their best bet, or I would say if ASML wasn't a thing.

Sadly for Taiwan they are between a sword and a wall, ASML is required for them to continue innovating, if they were to annex themselves to China they would lose access to EUV and High NA EUV and basically lose their ability to produce sub 5nm semiconductors no matter how talented they are, and I don't think that SMEE in China is close to EUV let alone High NA EUV.

I understand this comment will upset some people but I tried to be a realist about what would happen if things were to hit the fan

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