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I don't know, i think we needed some precious minerals
Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
251–260 of 374 posts
Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#252Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am not that good in physics so someone should probably correct me but if an object comes at such a speed that it escapes earth gravity, it'll probably eject us from our solar path into the unknown.
The mass of such an object is likely be miniscule compared to the mass of the earth. So even a very close approach isn't likely to make much difference to the earth's orbit. E.g. an asteroid 100m across with the same density as the earth is going to have ~0.0000000000001 the mass of the earth.
Mass is relative to speed. If the object has a very high speed, it can reach the mass of the earth or even higher. That's why my understanding is that if it can escape the gravity of the earth, it means its own gravitational field is as or more powerful.
Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#253Woah. A 1% probability is a lot higher than I expected and am comfortable with (not that I can do anything about it)
Urban areas are only about 0.5% of earth surface, so rough approximation of a catastrophic hit chance is around 0.005%. The chance of you specifically being affected by this asteroid is vanishingly small.
You should personally be more worried about crossing a road or plugging in an electric appliance or being hit by a lightning. For others there's a lot more devastation going on globally that you could even do something about.
Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#254What can be done to increase the asteroid impact probability?
Waiting. In general the probability increases as more data is gathered, and the error ellipse shrinks with the Earth still inside. Then is suddenly drops to zero in the overwhelming majority of cases, when the Earth finally gets out of this shrinking error ellipse.
The precision (of the observed trajectory) increases. If the probability increased in general we should recalibrate our probability estimates.
Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#255Earlier quoted context omitted.
How far in advance would we know exactly _where_ on the Earth it will hit? If, say, New York is going to be destroyed, it makes a big difference if we know that a year in advance vs. a day.
Knowing if it will hit is a lot easier than knowing where. Knowing where, will depend on the angle of impact - if came basically straight in (tangent to the surface) we can be pretty accurate, but the more shallow the angle the harder it will be. With a shallow angle, we'll probably be able to tell the latitude pretty well, but not the longitude.
Nitpick: normal to the surface.
Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#256Earlier quoted context omitted.
by doubting, you've already ruled it out, haven't you? 95%+ is as good as it gets probably. For starters, we know corals will be dead in the next few decades, home of 25% of all oceanic species. The mass extinction event is underway and we aren't doing enough to stop it.
> by doubting, you've already ruled it out, haven't you? So you are attempting to create an environment where reasonable doubt is impossible. This behavior is actually part of the reason I have doubts. > we know corals will be dead in the next few decades Do we? > The mass extinction event is underway and we aren't doing enough to stop it. This is a clever dodge of the original question. Can you explain to me when ou…
Gotta be the acme of pedantic behavior to say "there's no proof climate change will kill ALL of us".
Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#257Earlier quoted context omitted.
How far in advance would we know exactly _where_ on the Earth it will hit? If, say, New York is going to be destroyed, it makes a big difference if we know that a year in advance vs. a day.
Does it though? People don't leave hurricane zones. People don't heed tornado warnings. I just have very little faith in humanity, and fell like "Don't Look Up" would be not too far off. Also, if you evacuate New York a year in advance, who's to say that the prediction isn't just a skosh off so that New York is left untouched but the real impact location was hit unprepared?
There's always a few holdovers, but my experience living in disaster prone areas is that people evacuate when evacuation orders are given. Literally nobody is going to come help you if you don't.
Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#258Earlier quoted context omitted.
Knowing if it will hit is a lot easier than knowing where. Knowing where, will depend on the angle of impact - if came basically straight in (tangent to the surface) we can be pretty accurate, but the more shallow the angle the harder it will be. With a shallow angle, we'll probably be able to tell the latitude pretty well, but not the longitude.
Nitpick: normal to the surface.
Oops! Yes, I meant to say perpendicular (or normal).
Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#259It needs a pictogram to help understand how destructive 8Mt of energy is. Is this a cool light show? Worldwide extinction?
Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#260Working link: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2024%20Y... 8.1 megatons of kinetic energy. According to the Torino rating, only risk of “localized destruction” (less than “regional devastation”): https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/torino_scale.html
Comparable in energy to a B-53 nuclear bomb, minus the radiation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B53_nuclear_bomb
What I just learned from ChatGPT…
Asteroids mostly contain the same naturally radioactive elements we find in Earth's rocks - mainly potassium, uranium, and thorium in very small amounts. When they hit Earth, they don't typically create radiation hazards. Scientists have checked out famous impact sites like Meteor Crater in Arizona and found normal radiation levels. While impacts can briefly create some radioactive isotopes through the collision process, it's really the impact's explosive force that does the real damage, not radiation.