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CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

nytimes.com

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Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#251

Post by Analemma_ »

drewbug01 wrote: post #17

> The agency made its new assessment with “low confidence,” which means the intelligence behind it is fragmentary and incomplete. I do believe that's all one really needs to know about this shift in their thinking. In other words: it's really far from certain. --- One thing that is, however, quite certain: there are very real political reasons to favor one theory or another. For example, Sen. Tom Cotton is quoted as…

> But the real goal of the constant back-and-forth over where it came from is not about finding the truth; that much seems quite obvious to me.

Yes, the annoying thing is that "the truth about covid" literally only matters to culture war grievances, it has no relevance whatsoever to the actual world. If it was a lab leak, then China needs to improve their BSL-4 safety... but they need to do that anyway[0]. If it was zoonotic, then they need to clean up the wet markets... but they need to do that anyway. The true origin of covid makes no difference at all, and I wish these people would just come out and admit this is all domestic political peacocking.

[0]: and so does everyone else, for that matter. The US has also had several close calls with BSL-4 leaks; if covid did originate from a lab leak, the fact that it wasn't from an American lab is just sheer dumb luck.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#252

Post by leptons »

hansvm wrote: post #205
scarface_74 wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Now the most important thing is to make China pay for unleashing a plague on the world Does COVID being a “plague” jibe with the talking point that COVID is “no worse than a cold”

[flagged]

“The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#253

Post by philjohn »

nxm wrote: post #122
steveBK123 wrote: post #62

It was never an implausible theory so the censorship over it was foolish. Of course the immediate jump to conclusion in the first few months by some who found it politically expedient was no better either. People need to be more comfortable saying I don’t know but we are looking into it.

Back then anyone who suggested the lab leak theory was immediately labeled a conspiracy theorist by main stream media.

Were they? Or were those who claimed it was the only possible answer, without the evidence to back that up?

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#254

Post by pstuart »

strangecasts wrote: post #239
pessimizer wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I do believe that's all one really needs to know about this shift in their thinking. In other words: it's really far from certain. There's never going to be any conclusive evidence of the source of covid, and anyone claiming they have certainty (who wasn't a witness to a lab leak) is simply lying to you. What they're doing is going along with everyone else worth listening to, who find the coincidence that we were f…

> It's so strange to demand so much more proof of lab origin than one does of non-lab origin. It's not, zoonotic transmission has happened many times, lab leak is the extraordinary claim requiring extraordinary evidence

And there's been mutations in the virus since the initial exposure. How could that happen? How can a virus change its genetic code without a lab to do it?!?!!/s

Regardless of the source, it was dangerous but could have been better mitigated if it was taken seriously as a threat (not just a "common cold").

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#255

Post by philjohn »

nxm wrote: post #124

But the fact checkers back in 2021 labeled the lab leak theory as false/misinformation. Meanwhile anyone who suggested it was labeled a conspiracy theory by the main stream media.

That's absolutely false. If people claimed that it was definitively lab leak in origin, it was (correctly) labelled as false. Can you cite me examples, with wording, of people positing it, but not claiming it outright, who were censored?

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#256

Post by labster »

strangecasts wrote: post #239
pessimizer wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I do believe that's all one really needs to know about this shift in their thinking. In other words: it's really far from certain. There's never going to be any conclusive evidence of the source of covid, and anyone claiming they have certainty (who wasn't a witness to a lab leak) is simply lying to you. What they're doing is going along with everyone else worth listening to, who find the coincidence that we were f…

> It's so strange to demand so much more proof of lab origin than one does of non-lab origin. It's not, zoonotic transmission has happened many times, lab leak is the extraordinary claim requiring extraordinary evidence

You just set an arbitrary bar that that is higher for the lab leak based on an “everybody knows” argument. That’s not science, it’s faith.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#257

Post by ychan268 »

I mean which country benefited from COVID? China controlled the virus first then lost a lot from strict lockdown, western had many death cases not to mention developing countries. If some Bie Inc made COVID, I don't think they have the courage to piss all governments.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#258

Post by eightysixfour »

cypress66 wrote: post #211
eightysixfour wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it is non-trivial to impossible for them to prove it wasn’t. Which is perfect for political tools and wedges.

Ok. But I'm saying it's almost impossible that no one knows, as the parent comment suggests. Edit: my original comment was not intended to be a reply to you, but to the parent.

Ah, fair. If it was a lab leak, it is likely someone, or many people, know. I doubt any of them have any incentives to share that information.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#259

Post by jandrewrogers »

spanktheuser wrote: post #172
derektank wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both the FBI and DOE, which have their own foreign intelligence gathering capabilities, had previously assessed that COVID was caused by a lab leak with moderate confidence. So while I agree with you that the truth will likely remain shrouded in some mystery, most of us that believed it originated from zoonosis at first (and I would include myself in that camp) should update our priors both based on the CIA assessmen…

My priors include none of the agencies having expertise in epidemiology.

You are wrong, something that you could have easily checked yourself. There are many sophisticated epidemiology groups throughout defense and intelligence. It is a longstanding critical part of their mission, for a variety of end purposes.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#260

Post by tveita »

stvswn wrote: post #132

It's pretty wild to me that a good portion of commenters here seem to think that only one side can politicize Covid's origins when the cited article itself says that the conclusion predates the new administration. The natural origin bitter-clingers are still citing papers that claim to lean towards natural origin with the thinnest possible evidence. I admit I'm not a virologist, but I am a bit skeptical that this com…

Out of curiosity, have you seen the debate between Peter Miller and Saar Wilf, summarized in https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/practically-a-book-review-r...?
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