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Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

vincentschmalbach.com

251–260 of 431 posts

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#251
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Perhaps also society has become more conservative, so selling a really innovative product to a customer has become harder. Customers are more locked into existing products. Network effects, switching costs, familiarity and branding, staff training (for businesses) and learning something new....

Strongly agree here that there is platform lock-in; all the large platforms are playing subtle games to make it harder to explore new services outside them. To some people this might look like consumers are more conservative, but really it's just hidden dark patterns keeping them in the big platforms. I really wish the US government was more pro-business competition; they're merely pro-business in terms of ensuring e…

> Strongly agree here that there is platform lock-in; all the large platforms are playing subtle games to make it harder to explore new services outside them.

> To some people this might look like consumers are more conservative, but really it's just hidden dark patterns keeping them in the big platforms.

I personally observe that people have quite different "sensitivities" to this phenomenon. It might be true that such people exist, but at least in my "echo chamber" it's rather exactly the other way: the more dark pattern such people observe, and the more they feel "jailed" by these large platforms, the more they are willing to leave the platform - just out of spite. Thus, at least many people of my "echo chamber" show exactly the opposite behaviour from what you claim and the platforms intend.

Thus, I believe the conservatism is a different phenomenon: people become less willing to try out new things because they observed far too often that a new interesting service turned more and more into a dark jail over the years.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#252
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Perhaps also society has become more conservative, so selling a really innovative product to a customer has become harder. Customers are more locked into existing products. Network effects, switching costs, familiarity and branding, staff training (for businesses) and learning something new....

Strongly agree here that there is platform lock-in; all the large platforms are playing subtle games to make it harder to explore new services outside them. To some people this might look like consumers are more conservative, but really it's just hidden dark patterns keeping them in the big platforms. I really wish the US government was more pro-business competition; they're merely pro-business in terms of ensuring e…

The US government does business with men who say, “Competition is for losers”.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#253

I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory Unless you're a founder, you're unlikely to make any money, and predatory VC/backers using convertibles/senior debt to turn your equity into Zimbabwean dollars. Thats before any stats are calculated for lasting long enough to either IPO, make money or get bought out. As someone who did successfully exit, the stories of multiple-m…

I was the ~15th engineer at a YC startup that had a very big exit. Over 4 years I made less than $80k total (20k/yr) from my options while the founders made high 8 figures. Had I joined BigTech I would have made over $1 M just from stock and I would have worked less. Back during the dot com days, everyone from the secretaries to the chefs to the founders were getting rich but nowadays YC teaches their founders to kee…

> nowadays YC teaches their founders to keep the money and stock options for themselves and for the investors.

In founder-matching profiles, I've started saying that I wanted to spread the wealth around with early hires, more than the convention. If founders win, the early hires also win.

Lesson learned: no matter how busy a founder is, they are no less petty than anyone else, and some will make time for a call, just to see who this hippie a--h--- is. :)

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#254
> The low-hanging fruit of the mobile/web era has largely been picked, making truly innovative opportunities harder to find.

I sort of disagree with this. While clearly the lowest hanging fruit have already been picked, I still see a ton of good ideas! This might come off as rude, but if you’re the type of person who follows the standard track of graduate with a cs degree then work at big tech for 5 years with your main hobby being socializing or working out, then yeah good ideas will hard to come up with. For those of us interested in tech but with highly non-linear career paths, startup ideas basically fall out of the sky.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#255

IMHO building startup became a status symbol which means that the payment in respect for making a courageous adventure is lost and commoditized. We are slowly seeing the same for academia. Point 2 resonates with me. Risk adjusted it is very unlikely that one will make a reasonable salary doing startups. So it is conviction and heart that needs to drive it. For me, the main issue is that every time I voice the idea ab…

> every time I voice the idea about building something I get bombarded with premature growth and commercialization concerns instead of excitement about how to solve the problem.

Talkers hate doers and those who dare to think of doing something.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#256

> What's changed? Largely, the make up of the audience in HN. I sincerely doubt that the hard core of people doing startups, thinking of doing a startup, or just very interested in the topic has gone away or changed attitude very much. But the profile of HN has grown. It's a miracle that it's still an interesting and curious group, but from comments I'd be astounded if there were not a far greater proportion of peopl…

Yep not a tech worker at all but here because i like tech and the discussions

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#257
post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was the ~15th engineer at a YC startup that had a very big exit. Over 4 years I made less than $80k total (20k/yr) from my options while the founders made high 8 figures. Had I joined BigTech I would have made over $1 M just from stock and I would have worked less. Back during the dot com days, everyone from the secretaries to the chefs to the founders were getting rich but nowadays YC teaches their founders to kee…

> nowadays YC teaches their founders to keep the money and stock options for themselves and for the investors. In founder-matching profiles, I've started saying that I wanted to spread the wealth around with early hires, more than the convention. If founders win, the early hires also win. Lesson learned: no matter how busy a founder is, they are no less petty than anyone else, and some will make time for a call, just…

I joined a startup that was big on this message. They were previously at startups and felt they didn’t get a fair share in an exit.

Well it turns out even that wasn’t enough and they did the same thing. I suspect VCs control too much of the financing.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#258
post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, this is often overlooked in all the talk of $300k FAANG salaries. Few people get those senior salaries, and those who do get it because of their unusual skills and experiences. A stint at a startup is still a pretty good way to get those skills and experiences, compared to spending the same amount of time as a junior developer somewhere else. If you can make capital gains equivalent to FAANG senior salaries whi…

levels.fyi will give you some confidence in the wage. Google, Meta, Amazon & microsoft all do banding, so the base wages is mostly public (hence why its all bollocks about wage negotiation, there isn't any.) The first level of senior for most of these orgs will tip the scales at around $300k Having worked at both startup and FAANG, I don;t think startups actually give you the skills to flourish here in corp land. Sur…

Funny, my experience is engineers (at ICT level) at big companies are also really bad at politics - all they do in public setting is ask for more perks and benefits.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#259

I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory Unless you're a founder, you're unlikely to make any money, and predatory VC/backers using convertibles/senior debt to turn your equity into Zimbabwean dollars. Thats before any stats are calculated for lasting long enough to either IPO, make money or get bought out. As someone who did successfully exit, the stories of multiple-m…

The other bit here is that hacker news attracted a lot more engineers (vs more entrepreneurial-leaning folk) in the intervening time - and engineers never really made bank on startups. Even in successful startups the engineers are typically lower on the pay-out ranking than the less-technical founders and the VCs...

That’s a good point. Also the engineer personality tends to be extremely risk averse.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#260
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only realy reason to join a startup is that you either believe in the "mission" or that you believe it will bring you joy to work in that way. Or the startup was a stepping stone in your career. Big Tech wouldn't hire you, b/c you have a different background, so you work at a startup to develop experience and then switch to Big Tech.

Then go from a CTO to an L4 at Google.

and that’s a good thing! As you get a little older and your life needs more stability (oh no I only make 400k at my 9-5)
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