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Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

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Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#251

Post by churchill »

robgibbons wrote: post #233
roenxi wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> when real estate prices have dropped by more than 50% in tier 2 and below cities, and deflation has raged on. Can other economies copy that part? I know a bunch of people who'd like to be able to afford more houses & more groceries at the same time. I'd like that, I can't realistically afford a house in the city I live in without a 50% price drop. I'm sure China has a lot of problems, but key goods getting cheaper…

It's commonly referred to as a deflationary spiral because the falling prices lead to people (perhaps counterintuitively) holding off from large purchases, anticipating a continued drop in prices. Sort of a "buy the bottom" mentality. The lack of spending then further contributes to falling prices, job cuts, businesses closing, etc. It's really not a situation any economy _wants_. That said, I empathize with your sen…

I have never understood the concept of the deflationary spiral: no matter how much people want to save their cash for later, there are simply things they can't do without.

Food, energy, transportation, education, etc.

How long are you going to delay getting a new car simply because cars are getting cheaper and better? Once you probe the theory beyond the surface, it collapses. Yes, a deflationary economy will see less cash velocity than a ZIRP economy with cheap cash sloshing around. But, at the end of the day, humans MUST spend resources today to live to see their savings worth more.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#252

Post by roenxi »

robgibbons wrote: post #233
roenxi wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> when real estate prices have dropped by more than 50% in tier 2 and below cities, and deflation has raged on. Can other economies copy that part? I know a bunch of people who'd like to be able to afford more houses & more groceries at the same time. I'd like that, I can't realistically afford a house in the city I live in without a 50% price drop. I'm sure China has a lot of problems, but key goods getting cheaper…

It's commonly referred to as a deflationary spiral because the falling prices lead to people (perhaps counterintuitively) holding off from large purchases, anticipating a continued drop in prices. Sort of a "buy the bottom" mentality. The lack of spending then further contributes to falling prices, job cuts, businesses closing, etc. It's really not a situation any economy _wants_. That said, I empathize with your sen…

That is obviously wrong to the point where I am confused why someone always makes the claim. I'm looking forward to running in to someone who can actually follow up with some sort of defence of the position. Extraordinary claims, extraordinary evidence style.

Consider the computer industry. Prices have been falling pretty much across my entire life. Supply-demand suggests that people will keep buying new computers as the price drops and that is exactly what is happening. Demand for compute has never been higher. There is no waiting for improvements, if anything there is a mad rush to buy hardware that everyone knows is about to be obsoleted. It isn't even an irrational rush, the people buying that obsolete hardware often make good money (eg, bitcoin miners in the heyday).

Basic supply demand says as price drops demand increases. Basic life experience says as prices drop I can afford more and better stuff. Observation of real industries suggests - as we would intuit - that industries with regular price drops are actually healthy and great to be in for consumers in the small and the large. Theory suggests that everyone ignores nominal price fluctuations and focuses on real changes so systemic deflation is irrelevant. None of this supports the idea that deflation is bad.

Pretty sure the anti-deflation crowd are just wrong. They have no evidence or argument [0] as far as I can tell, and all the theory is stacked against them. China surely has problems. Deflation is not a problem. It is just a metric.

[0] EDIT Well I suppose they do have an argument, but it involves people randomly going crazy and choosing to live in poverty and discomfort because it gets easier to buy goods. Which is not an argument I really take seriously.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#254

Post by bugglebeetle »

roca wrote: post #248
bugglebeetle wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> US economy being the strongest in decades The vast majority of its people do not share in that success and have seen a declining standard of life relative to prior generations whereas in China, the opposite is quite demonstrably true, despite increasingly similar concentrations of wealth and political power.

On the contrary, real wages in the USA are the highest they've ever been. Social media and fentanyl are making people unhappy but for most people it's not an economic problem.

Sure thing, Dr. Pangloss.

> Average age of first-time homebuyers is 38, an all-time high.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/11/05/the-average-age-of-first...

> U.S. homelessness rose 18 percent in 2024, continuing multi-year upward trend

> https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/u-s-homelessness-rose-18...

> analysis of government data estimates that people in the United States owe at least $220 billion in medical debt.

https://www.kff.org/health-costs/issue-brief/the-burden-of-m...

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#255

Post by 8note »

dgfitz wrote: post #231
culi wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no reason to think Deepseek is engaged in any such practices. It's also open source unlike many of the western counterparts

You posit that individual freedoms exist inside China? I posit they do not.

when do i get to use my western freedoms to inspect OpenAIs datasets?

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#256

Post by churchill »

cess11 wrote: post #170
yoavm wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not the OP, but here's one I feel quite uncomfortable with: https://quran.com/en/an-nisa/155/tafsirs - "The Hour will not start, until after the Muslims fight the Jews and the Muslims kill them. The Jew will hide behind a stone or tree, and the tree will say, `O Muslim! O servant of Allah! This is a Jew behind me, come and kill him". Other examples from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An-Nisa include "Men are the prote…

The New Testament has similar passages. One of the most well known has Jesus attacking pilgrims and money changers in the temple. John is rather obviously antijewish. "I have not come with peace" is another well known, not very palatable one.

LMAO - you need to rehearse your lines better. Can't even make a coherent refutation of John's supposed antisemitism.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#257

Post by bobxmax »

pphysch wrote: post #131
bobxmax wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is so bang on. What's so insiduous about the West is how inundated everybody is with propaganda, but there's plausible deniability built into the system that everybody believes they're a free thinker. Reddit is a good example - one of the biggest aggregators and disseminators of information for tens of millions of people, primarily in the West. People who see themselves as above-average intelligence. Yet massive…

/r/worldnews is a great example of the potency of American propaganda. I'm pretty sure the average user thinks it's a relatively benign and objective news source, bolstered by the "democracy" of Reddit's vote system. And that couldn't be further from the truth.

Yep. That's the best example - completely inundated with government propaganda, and yet millions of people are freely consuming it daily and shaping their world view around it.

When you look at Reddit CEO's board affiliations, it starts to become clear this is not accidental.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#258

Post by bobxmax »

yoavm wrote: post #146
Bilal_io wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Western LLMs have a bias when it comes to Israel and Palestine issue. Out of curiously, what part of the Quran do you consider controversial?

Not the OP, but here's one I feel quite uncomfortable with: https://quran.com/en/an-nisa/155/tafsirs - "The Hour will not start, until after the Muslims fight the Jews and the Muslims kill them. The Jew will hide behind a stone or tree, and the tree will say, `O Muslim! O servant of Allah! This is a Jew behind me, come and kill him". Other examples from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An-Nisa include "Men are the prote…

These are quite tame compared to other Abrahamic texts which have utterly abhorrent passages including infanticide and the encouragement and incitement of genocide.

The "fighting Jews" is in contexts of self defense and warfare. Jews can live in peace in Muslim societies and must be unharmed. One of the Prophet's wives was a jew.

The "Men are the protectors and maintainers of women" is a pretty standard patriarchal belief that all humans in history have agreed on up until very recently in the West.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#259

Post by joshuahedlund »

A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #250
lolinder wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And now they're at the point where the population pyramid is collapsing. It's hard to make any predictions about the future when they got here riding a baby boom and now their ratio of elderly to working age is about to go through the roof. https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2023/

Japan, Germany, Italy, and numerous other countries are all much worse off. Assuming things don't change, China in 2050 will be in approximately the same position as Japan today . Germany and Italy, to take but two examples of large Western economies, haven't had native above-replacement TFR since ~1970. Even in the US, TFR is well below replacement right now, and in fact is basically comparable to China's TFR from 2…

> Assuming things don't change, China in 2050 will be in approximately the same position as Japan today.

What metric do you have in mind here? It looks like Japan’s population has dropped ~2% from peak in the last 25 years. China is projected to lose ~8% in the next 25.

Or if we look at percent of population over 65, Japan is at ~30% today. China is projected to jump from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1359964/world-population...

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#260

Post by verygoodnotbad »

yellow_lead wrote: post #2

> Liang Wenfeng: We believe that as the economy develops, China should gradually become a contributor instead of freeriding. In the past 30+ years of the IT wave, we basically didn’t participate in real technological innovation. We’re used to Moore’s Law falling out of the sky, lying at home waiting 18 months for better hardware and software to emerge. That’s how the Scaling Law is being treated.

That sounds true to me. It seems like the CEO is pretty focused on truth.

So maybe he also understands that the US has good reason to tariff and restrict Chinese investment. It is not only for the benefit of the US people, but of the world and the Chinese people. It is not out of emotional fear, but morality and responsibility, which are obviously trans-cultural.

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