Batteries: How cheap can they get? • Hacker News Board

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#251

Post by SideburnsOfDoom » Fri, Jul 05, 2024, 11:50 AM UTC

torginus wrote: post #59

Ladies and gents this is what standard-issue Silicon Valley style grift looks like (following in the footsteps of the great Kurzweil). Ignore basic physics, massage data so you can more credibly fit an exponential curve on it, and extrapolate a fantastic future for it. All this to underpin the grand illusion of capitalism that exponential YoY growth is sustainable to justify insane VC valuations. Which is even more p…

We know that tech adoption follows an s-curve that is only exponential in the lower parts. No-one is claiming truly unbounded exponentials for these techs.

The thing is that they have been exponential so far. clean energy forecasts based on linear trends, not on doubling of installations or on halving of prices have been consistently too pessimistic.

We can expect this to continue for a short while longer, until inflection points are reached.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#252

Post by weberer » Fri, Jul 05, 2024, 12:03 PM UTC

jvanderbot wrote: post #17

I would love a 5-20kwh battery backup in my home, I even have a place for it. But when I called my local solar/battery installer they said that it was illegal to install grid-charged battery backups in home. I live in Minnesota. They even told me the power from a hypothetical solar rig is sold to the grid utility, not stored, and they give a discount on future winter rates as payment. This seems like a lousy deal.

>it was illegal to install grid-charged battery backups in home

So it would be legal if it were only charged by your house's solar panel? That doesn't sound like a big problem to me.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#253

Post by ppsreejith » Fri, Jul 05, 2024, 12:08 PM UTC

jsnell wrote: post #201

> If we start with 2410 GWh in 2023 and grow with 59% per year that gives us 61.917 GWh in 2030. That would mean almost exactly 8 doublings in 2030. There's an order of magnitude error here. That's an increase of about 26x. 8 doublings would require an increase of 256x. Now, anyone can make a simple math error. But, like, it should be totally obvious to anyone that 7 years of 60% annual growth can't possibly be anywh…

I think the unit is off. Starting from 2410 GWh & a compound increase of 59% per year gives us: 61,915 GWh (2410 * 1.59^7) which is about 61.915 TWh. So perhaps the author meant 61.915 TWh instead of GWh.

No way is this in anyway close to 8 doublings though. That would take 12 years or by 2035. (1.59^12 = 261x)

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#254

Post by taneliv » Fri, Jul 05, 2024, 12:17 PM UTC

Gibbon1 wrote: post #229

taneliv wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference between surface solar radiation levels in the US and Europe are wild[1], fully agree on the rounding error view. Anchorage seems to receive the same level of watts per area as Germany and Poland. [1] https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-I5kzJIeV4Ds/VFSHUX3374I/AAAAAAAAA...

Amusing southern California is getting more watts per m2 then A lot of North Africa. This is a good source, population by latitude. http://www.statsmapsnpix.com/2021/11/world-population-by-lat...

It's missing the "most population in smallest (circular) area" view, as defined in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeriepieris_circle .

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#255

Post by luke541 » Fri, Jul 05, 2024, 12:25 PM UTC

duffpkg wrote: post #19

Lifepo4 (lithium iron phosphate) batteries for the home are pretty cheap as of today. Power storage for residential use in a 48v metal rackable linkable system with battery management system (BMS) is $89/kwh shipped/duty paid from reputable chinese suppliers CATL/Seplos etc. You have to wait for sea shipping, add $30/kwh if you want to buy it in the US today. From the same suppliers sodium batteries are currently $13…

89$/kWh seems way too low. If I'm mistaken please point out where I could buy them cause I'll gladly buy some. On well known Chinese market places the price is 5x to 10x that (I live in Europe)

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#256

Post by vel0city » Fri, Jul 05, 2024, 1:10 PM UTC

throwaway81523 wrote: post #157

kccqzy wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You might as well just buy an electric vehicle with V2L or V2H functionality, and then add a generator outlet to your electric panel. The added benefit is that well, it's a battery strapped to a car. So if you have an extended power outage, you simply drive your car to a charger elsewhere and come back with a full charge. I'm sure Minnesota wouldn't be stupid enough to outlaw EV charging.

There have been weather events and suchlike where it has been impossible to charge an EV, though gas was still available.

And I've been in weather events where I had electricity at home and yet all the gas stations around didn't have electricity to run their pumps.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#257

Post by vel0city » Fri, Jul 05, 2024, 1:13 PM UTC

Dylan16807 wrote: post #231

edmundsauto wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My concern would be draining the fuel reserves in a vehicle to power my home reduces my mobility. It seems like mixing objectives and in an emergency, I want to keep my super spare backup if I needed to flee.

So you're worried about a weather emergency that takes out your power, followed a few days later by a second emergency that requires you to evacuate a long distance? I don't think I'd do very much to prepare for that scenario.

It can be the same emergency. It doesn't have to be a second one.

You might plan on riding out a storm, thinking utilities might be out a day or two max. Day 5, still no utilities, no known date for resumption of services, and supplies are running extremely low. How do you get out?

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#258

Post by qubitcoder » Fri, Jul 05, 2024, 1:47 PM UTC

gambiting wrote: post #245

roygbiv2 wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just about everything in Australia needs a license to do. Even down to network cabling.

The rule is - if it's going inside the wall, only a licenced electrician can do it. Yes it also extends to things like speaker or HDMI cables. It's mad.

Mad, indeed. It's hard to imagine those rules are followed, especially for speaker wires and HDMI cables.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#259

Post by Workaccount2 » Fri, Jul 05, 2024, 2:16 PM UTC

lazide wrote: post #178

grecy wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All of the quotes and interactions I had with the local solar installers were reminiscent of the used car lot if not outright fraud. I had exactly the same experience. They absolutely would not tell me the actual system cost, only how much I would save on my current bill per month. It felt exactly like a car salesman only talking about monthly payments, and it was horrible.

Yup. I’ve (US) also talked to a few local ones to just see if they had a couple panels I could buy off them for close to wholesale for a personal project - which if they were actually involved in installation would be trivial - and just got blank stares. They were clearly just doing lead generation for some other company they had no direct connection with, and didn’t even have any idea who to talk to that could even…

These companies are the equivalent of people who received a free product to review and then post a referral link for it in the details. Of course, they glow about how amazing the product is and how you should drop everything and buy it.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#260

Post by DennisP » Fri, Jul 05, 2024, 2:17 PM UTC

pfdietz wrote: post #2

He projects (at current growth and experience rates) that battery cells will reach $8/kWh by 2030. Wow!

But with several math errors, which make him off by a decade. He multiplies by 1.59 annually and gets a 25X increase in total battery in seven years. That actually takes eight years, but whatever. Then he says that's eight doublings, but eight doublings is a 256X increase. That would take nine years at 100% annually (first year to go from 1 to 2, then 2^8=256). But we only have a 59% annual increase so getting to 256X takes about 13 years.

He also seems to be off by one in the cost reduction. At 25% per doubling it takes nine doublings to get to 10% of the current price. So add another year or two to get to $8.

It's still interesting that we could get to $8/kWh by 2040 or so, especially since it seems physically plausible that sodium batteries could get that cheap, and that we could build several days of grid storage using them. And by 2030 we still get a cost drop of almost two-thirds, down to $28/kWh if we accept his claim of $80/kWh in 2023.