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Taking Risk

tomblomfield.com

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Re: Taking Risk

#251

Post by mike_hearn »

dan-robertson wrote: post #189
mike_hearn wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remember you have to normalize for population size. And when we say the US we really mean one small part of it. People in the US often move to California to start their startups, they don't necessarily stick around in the part of the US they're currently in. This is largely due to the VC ecosystem there which makes "irrationality" relatively safe vs everywhere else in the world where it doesn't. Tom's article makes t…

I think your population size argument is something like: - SFBA has ~2% of the population of the US - London has ~10% of the population of the U.K. - the populations of the areas are similar (ca 7e6) So for SFBA to feel full of startups, you can get away with e.g. 0.2% of the population of the US doing tech startups in the Bay Area at any one time, but for London to feel similarly full of startups, you would need 1%…

Nothing so fancy, I just meant that a bigger population size will inherently create more successful companies. But your stats about population density are interesting, thanks!

Re: Taking Risk

#252

Post by benjaminwootton »

a_c wrote: post #245
csomar wrote: post #220

This is the most useless post one can read about some guy who is happy with his life and complain others are not doing things that he is thinking about... > just days before my start date at McKinsey, which finally gave me the confidence to choose the startup over a prestigious job offer. I highly doubt many people are getting offers at McKinsey and getting funded at the same time. The dude talks about risk but he li…

There is a saying that pessimist is right while optimist makes progress.

I haven’t heard that saying before but it certainly feels correct. I know a few successful people who don’t seem particularly bright or analytical, but keep pushing on in the misguided belief that things will work out. And sometimes they do.

Re: Taking Risk

#253

Post by DeathArrow »

light_triad wrote: post #155

There's many factors that make Europe less competitive than the US: small fractured markets, low salaries, high cost of living relative to wages, Brexit costs, fear of being labeled a failure, working to live, focus on worker's rights, stability, and pensions, general risk aversion etc. A big issue is there's a lack of mega successes high margin software businesses that pump knowledge and money back into the startup…

In Romania there's a huge pool of very talented SWEs. What do they do? They either work for foreign companies, or for a local company working for foreign companies.

They mostly outsource their skill. There are maybe two of three software products made by a local company known worldwide.

This is the result of risk aversion and lack of capital.

Re: Taking Risk

#254

Post by csomar »

a_c wrote: post #245
csomar wrote: post #220

This is the most useless post one can read about some guy who is happy with his life and complain others are not doing things that he is thinking about... > just days before my start date at McKinsey, which finally gave me the confidence to choose the startup over a prestigious job offer. I highly doubt many people are getting offers at McKinsey and getting funded at the same time. The dude talks about risk but he li…

There is a saying that pessimist is right while optimist makes progress.

There are endless sayings. You can make a post about optimism as a startup accelerator fuel. I am just addressing the OP points.

Re: Taking Risk

#255

Post by DeathArrow »

buynlarge wrote: post #181
matwood wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UK is a giant version of the Cayman Islands. It's a big bank providing financial services to rich people while keeping them anonymous. Everything else is secondary. And Brexit only made it worse.

On the other hand, the UK is one of the safest countries in the world, is full of kind people, has a general abundance of food, gives workers a relatively large number of days off in a year, has a functioning police force and takes care of sick people and those who can't work for whatever reason. Of course it is not perfect. The people of Britain may not have huge bank accounts, but this is partly because they collec…

> takes care of sick people

I've read horror stories about the healthcare system in UK.

Re: Taking Risk

#256

Post by K0balt »

K0balt wrote: post #202
Aromasin wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in the same boat. I've been chasing my tail for the last 6 years, just trying to keep my head above water financially. I'm a computer hardware engineer so the pickings are slim to none outside of the military-industrial complex, which pays shit outside of sales and executive management. Ended up at one of the big US semiconductor companies where I got paid 1/3rd of what my peers in the US earn, with similar expen…

I have a question. What if there was a place that you and a few colleagues could go where you could have your living space and office space provided, basic food served, and basic amenities. Such a place would probably be somewhat isolated and probably not in your own county. If such a place existed that catered to founders in exchange for minimal equity, is that something that would interest you, theoretically?

Huh, I’m guessing from the downvote that the answer is no. That’s kind of what I thought.

Risk is often a stand -in for comfort.

In general, I find that teams that are willing to be uncomfortable will come through. Ones that aren’t will fall apart.

I think this is because at some point, the level of commitment that is typically required to thrust a project above the noise floor implies a significant level of discomfort and sacrifice.

A great idea and a great team are not going to make it without either a) being logistically able to do what most projects are unable to do (backing) or 2) being willing to do what most people are unwilling to do (chutzpah).

It’s very rare that an idea or product is so great that it will succeed on its own merits alone.

For better or for worse, many cultures foster a sense of risk aversion and conservative attitudes about discomfort. It’s hard to assemble a team that will go the distance in these cultures without strong funding out of the gate.

I’m not sure that’s a bad thing, but it does seem to stifle entrepreneurial adventurism.

Re: Taking Risk

#257

Post by DeathArrow »

If we look solely at US vs EU or US vs UK, we might think that US have a huge amount of money and the salaries are greater. But this doesn't solely explain why US has a healthy startup scene while EU or UK doesn't.

China was a poor country - and maybe still is if we factor GDP/capita - but they've built a thriving startup scene.

So maybe it's about the money, but not about the amount of money. Instead it's about how societies and governments manage to focus whatever amount of money into startups. It's about building a virtuous cycle, where startups produce wealth which is channeled into building further startups.

Re: Taking Risk

#258

Post by DeathArrow »

mushufasa wrote: post #182

My pithy take on the most important explanatory factors here: 1) EU/UK startups lack a big enough common market to sell into to go from 100 to 1,000,0000 relative to US and Chinese startups. 2) Tax laws in many EU countries significantly limit founders' exit opportunities and magnitude of personal financial success. This "tail wags to the dog" because of risk/reward: if the ultimate reward is not high, a founder can'…

>1) EU/UK startups lack a big enough common market to sell into to go from 100 to 1,000,0000 relative to US and Chinese startups.

Are US companies selling only in US market? Why can't EU/UK startups address global markets?

Re: Taking Risk

#259

Post by oblio »

robertlagrant wrote: post #231
oblio wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone hates moving if their lives are good enough. They generally only move because they think their environment has structural problems that can't be solved within, say, 5 years. For example: bad healthcare, generalized low level corruption, bad infrastructure, bad air quality, no opportunities, etc. Americans are probably the only developed people that will move en masse just to make a bit more money, and even t…

Americans don't move en masse. They move as individuals. Lots of people in the UK move to London to make money. Move to the capital, make your pile, leave at 50 and buy a big house.

> Americans don't move en masse. They move as individuals.

LOL, literal much? :-)

Also, as always, being too much of a pedant comes back against you:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_Trail

I know it's not applicable to the modern day, but there you go, mass migration in the US :-)

Re: Taking Risk

#260

Post by DeathArrow »

jbms wrote: post #156

Cynical theory, the UK is now full of the descendants of all those who said "Emigrating? That will never work", and that's set the culture. Grafters and optimists have had many opportunities to leave over recent centuries.

>Cynical theory, the UK is now full of the descendants of all those who said "Emigrating? That will never work"

If that was true, why didn't people from US emigrate again?

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