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EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

electronicsweekly.com

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Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#251

Post by pmayrgundter »

How much does a chip fab cost? Internet says $10-20B [cost]

The last paragraph says they "would need about a dozen new fabs to be built and in full volume production by 2030"

max out 12*20 = $240B, but they say total cost $500B. Supply chain really on par with fab cost? Hm.

[cost] - ChatG estimates $10-20 for SOTA on par with TSMC

- https://www.quora.com/How-much-does-it-cost-to-build-a-semic...

- transitively sourced to a "third-party analysis by IBS" https://www.granitefirm.com/blog/us/2023/04/29/cost-of-chip-...

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#252

Post by throwup238 »

flamedoge wrote: post #151
romwell wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>ASML isn't guarding profound insights revealed by the gods requiring some sort of eternal liver pecking sacrifice to obtain. As someone who's worked in semiconductors... [citation needed] on that claim. >If the EU plays hardball to too great an extent, other countries will replicate the research. If they could have , they would have . Many have been trying, and still are. >China will already have started their attem…

> The EU does not have a track record of staying ahead when they tangle with Asians for tech manufacturing supremacy. ASML is literally the one that won vs Japan's Canon/Nikon. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/race-technological-dominance-...

In a consortium they started in the late 90s with Intel and a couple of other companies to license US Department of Energy EUV research from Lawrence Livermore. There’s a reason the US has control over where ASML hardware can be exported - a lot of the technology was originally developed and funded in the US.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#253

Post by ouroborosidiots »

izacus wrote: post #142
ouroborosidiots wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Land owners do end up paying tax on all the money they earn no? And if people are living in a country, they still tend to spend at least 50-60% of it in the local economy itself. (Anecdotal numbers based on expat friends' spending there). So the expats spend their home country resources for 20-25 years to get educated and be qualified enough to leave it and contribute to a different country's economy, taxes. Now the…

So basically you're making living for locals unaffordable to trade of for tiny amount of taxes from expats and tiny amount of landowner taxes (which are avoided if possible via tax avoidance schemes)? Sounds like a terrible tradeoff, isn't it? I also don't get your focus on education, this is Europe, not US where college costs 200.000EUR per person, the aggregate education costs don't even come close to tax breaks.

> So basically you're making living for locals unaffordable to trade of for tiny amount of taxes from expats and tiny amount of landowner taxes (which are avoided if possible via tax avoidance schemes)?

Living for locals getting expensive is because of higher paying jobs - whether or not it is the immigrants who are helping build those industries - no? What is stopping local realtors building more affordable housing for more people? Imo. these immigrants are just accelerating the process of those industries being built.

And I meant more than just taxes. Expat friends of mine are spending 50-60% of their income in the local economy itself. So even if they are getting taxed at 20-30% lower rate for the first 5 years, they probably spent a lot more than the missing 20-30% taxes to gain the skills needed to move there. Do keep in mind that the employers won't be hiring them and moving them from elsewhere if they are not generating more revenue than they are taking in.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#254

Post by pas »

throwaway2037 wrote: post #242
jdietrich wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but the semiconductor market is mature bordering on stagnant. There's a high-risk/high-reward competition for the leading edge that is currently dominated by TSMC, but there's just not much money to be made from the older nodes that the automotive, aviation and military segments care about. Building out capacity to secure your supply chains is potentially a very sensible strategic decision, but I'll eat my hat…

> the semiconductor market is mature bordering on stagnant Is this true? And by what measure? I see nothing but incredible growth driven by cloud, mobile, and AI/ML.

barriers to entry are getting higher by the minute, there are no new entrants, most of them are state-sponsored, and it's true for the whole supply chain.

sure, there's technological progress and demand, but the market is in a near pathological state. (very short lifecycles, huge investments required even for fabs to keep up, etc. sure, it's unlikely that it will collapse, as demand is very strong, but market participants are very exposed to external factors. there is a huge discontinuity due to the dilemma of staying put and trying to beat the competition on price, or going all-in and building a new fab or at least upgrading one to be able to offer a newer/better process node. which leads to even more consolidation.)

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#255

Post by baq »

cgeier wrote: post #179
lupusreal wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It happens to be a very important component, that's how.

With that argument, Germany also has "full control" over those machines, as the optics are a "very important component" manufactured by Zeiss.

Um yes?

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#256

Post by baq »

pmayrgundter wrote: post #251

How much does a chip fab cost? Internet says $10-20B [cost] The last paragraph says they "would need about a dozen new fabs to be built and in full volume production by 2030" max out 12*20 = $240B, but they say total cost $500B. Supply chain really on par with fab cost? Hm. [cost] - ChatG estimates $10-20 for SOTA on par with TSMC - https://www.quora.com/How-much-does-it-cost-to-build-a-semic... - transitively source…

it costs $10-20B if you have the process figured out.

good luck building a working fab from scratch without a blank check 20-year R&D investment.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#257

Post by epups »

logifail wrote: post #238
shiroiuma wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Another is that the foreigner may have got the job instead of it going to a local. The birth rate is falling and well below replacement level already, and talent shortages are well-known to be a problem. It's too late to worry about protecting the jobs of locals.

> It's too late to worry about protecting the jobs of locals What does one offer to locals to show them that they matter? Remember that all locals - even if they are poor or unemployed - have a vote. If one washes one's hands of an entire group one should not be surprised the next time an election comes round if the outcome is a form of protest.

The Netherlands already voted for a Eurosceptic, invoking similar rhetoric as you here - "replacement" of locals by foreigners, taking their jobs, etc. Interestingly, as is almost always the case in Europe, the places with fewer immigrants voted more harshly against them.

The question we should ask is whether this is rational or not. I think not. If the Dutch want to vote themselves into a Brexit, then so be it - the foreigners will go elsewhere, trade barriers will be erected to "protect" the local economy, and time will tell who will be ahead economically and culturally.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#258

Post by scott_w »

mattclarkdotnet wrote: post #164
SllX wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Better to compare corporate revenue which is typically 5% or less of market cap for FAANG. I wouldn’t even bother with that much. You’re comparing international corporations’ reported revenue with one measure of one country’s general economy. I know a lot of us here are from countries that are either really really big or really really rich or both, but most countries are not really really big or really really rich.…

Reported revenue is pretty reliable. Profits not so much. Revenue for a company and GDP for a country are at least broadly comparable.

I know it's harder to know for sure, but wouldn't a country's "revenues" (tax, other revenues) vs corporate revenues be better? A country doesn't have instant access to its GDP.

Or possibly just expenditure for both? I know borrowing can fill the gap between income/expenditure but it gives and idea of the actual cash that either entity can access.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#259

Post by chucke1992 »

tormeh wrote: post #191
sofixa wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any sources or proof of that or are you working back from biases?

There are no "backwards bureaucracy" index, unfortunately, but that's what I hear. Sweden has a smooth system. To be fair, that seems to be common in Scandinavia. Germany is a mess for sure. Have heard nothing good about Spain/Italy. France seems to have a problem with powerful individual bureaucrats. Anyway, if you want something slightly more systematic, look at the Ease of Doing Business rankings, but keep in mind…

Germany is a huge mess. Especially their constant desire to request paper copies left and right for everything.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#260

Post by hardware2win »

literalAardvark wrote: post #223
leonheld wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The software engineers don't realize that cutting-edge integrated hardware is actually harder than typing a bunch of letters into a terminal. lol.

That's because they've been allowed to call themselves engineers for so long that they're starting to believe they are. Industry is so hard that they often don't even hire from outside. You've either finished school and interned in or you're too difficult to retrain.

>That's because they've been allowed to call themselves engineers for so long that they're starting to believe they are.

What a take.

Is doctor telling bullshit about computers less doctor-ish?

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