blinks Ok, I really wasn't expecting this to land at the top of HN. I'd love to stick around to answer any questions people have, but it's 10PM and my toddler decided to go to bed at 5PM... so if I'm lucky I can get about 4 hours of sleep before she decides that it's time to get up. I'll check in and answer questions in the morning.
In future postmortems (of which I hope there will be very few or even none) you may want to spell out your 'lessons learned' to show why particular items will never recur.
> at the present time it is possible — but quite unlikely — that a hardware failure would result in the Tarsnap service becoming unavailable until a new EC2 instance can be launched and the Tarsnap server code can be restarted ... So far such an outage has never occurred
I read the postmortem as that a hardware failure did cause it to be unavailable and the code could not be restarted, a new server had to be built.
If that is correct, as well as writing up learning (as Jacques mentions) this page could be updated with outage information -- or even info on changes to reduce risk of repetition.
For what it's worth, one outage of a single day in fifteen years is impressive. If my ballpark math is correct, that's 99.992% uptime, ie four nines.