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Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

nytimes.com

251–260 of 1001 posts

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#251
post #36

There is part of me that thinks that this A.I. fear-mongering is some kind of tactic by Google to get everybody to pause training their A.I.s so they can secretly catch up in the background. If I was to do some quick game theory in my mind this would be the result. Imagine being Google, leading the way in A.I. for years, create the frameworks (tensorflow), create custom hardware for A.I. (TPUs), fund a ton of researc…

"You release Bard and it is an embarrassing disaster, a critical fail leading to an almost 50% reduction of Google's stock price" This didn't happen so maybe you need to reexamine your entire premise.

This is actually interesting. If you get you finance news from twitter and reddit you would actually assume that the claim/lie about "50% reduction of Google's stock price" is true and that FAANG is about to collapse along with the rest of the S&P500 and the petrodollar has gone to 0.

Why is that?

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#252

We are barely scraping the surface when it comes to understanding the future dangers of AI. Geoffrey Hinton is uniquely positioned to point out where the dangers are, and from what I've gleaned from interviews one of his main concerns atm is the use of AI in the military: fully autonomous military robots might not be possible to curtail. The tried and tested method is international agreements. The current focus on ar…

An EMP bomb can easily sort out robots but nothing can protect us from data and ip theft. That’s the real danger here unless regulated quickly.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#253
post #195

So he still doesn't accept his own responsibility? He may think that Google acted responsibly, but he published his research for others to replicate, paving the way for OpenAI and consorts. Why did he publish it? Vainglory. He didn't even need it for his career. And no, the model is not something somebody else would have come up with 6 months later. The comparison to Oppenheimer at the end is so trite. First, it's a…

I bet most people are downvoting because they don't believe in keeping research secret, and that it is even counter-productive.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#254

My honest take is a lot of these famous academics played almost no part in the developments at openai. But they want the limelight. They aren’t as relevant as they want to be. In many cases, they were directly wrong about how ai would develop

I don't disagree. But for me, their mistake wasn't in the algorithms or their approach or anything like that.

The problem has always been, and now will likely always be, the hardware. I've written about this at length in my previous comments, but a split happened in the mid-late 1990s with the arrival of video cards like the Voodoo that set alternative computation like AI back decades.

At the time, GPUs sounded like a great way to bypass the stagnation of CPUs and memory busses which ran at pathetic speeds like 33 MHz. And even today, GPUs can be thousands of times faster than CPUs. The tradeoff is their lack of general-purpose programmability and how the user is forced to deal with manually moving buffers in and out of GPU memory space. For those reasons alone, I'm out.

What we really needed was something like the 3D chip from the Terminator II movie, where a large array of simple CPUs (possibly even lacking a cache) perform ordinary desktop computing with local memories connected into something like a single large content-addressable memory.

Yes those can be tricky to program, but modern Lisp and Haskell-style functional languages and even bare-hands languages like Rust that enforce manual memory management can do it. And Docker takes away much of the complexity of orchestrating distributed processes.

Anyway, what's going to happen now is that companies will pour billions (trillions?) of dollars into dedicated AI processors that use stuff like TensorFlow to run neural nets. Which is fine. But nobody will make the general-purpose transputers and MIMD (multiple instruction multiple data) under-$1000 chips like I've talked about. Had that architecture kept up with Moore's law, 1000 core chips would have been standard in 2010, and we'd have chips approaching 1 million cores today. Then children using toy languages would be able to try alternatives like genetic algorithms, simulated annealing, etc etc etc with one-liners and explore new models of computation. Sadly, my belief now is that will never happen.

But hey, I'm always wrong about everything. RISC-V might be able to do it, and a few others. And we're coming out of the proprietary/privatization malaise of the last 20-40 years since the pandemic revealed just how fragile our system of colonial-exploitation-powered supply chains really is. A little democratization of AI on commoditized GPUs could spur these older/simpler designs that were suppressed to protect the profits of today's major players. So new developments more than 5-10 years out can't be predicted anymore, which is a really good thing. I haven't felt this inspired by not knowing what's going to happen since the Dot Bomb when I lost that feeling.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#255

This made me think of Clarke's first law: When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.

I've heard this before, but why would it be true? Serious question. I've seen Chomsky argue that LLMs can't regurgitate his linguistical theories - but ChatGPT can! I've seen Penrose argue that AI is impossible, and yet I think that ChatGPT and AlphaZero prove him wrong. I know about Linus Pauling and quasicrystals. Is this a general rule, or are people sometimes wrong regardless of their age? There's also a danger t…

[deleted]

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#256
post #222
post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is such a blurry line for autonomous munitions. militaries used dumb imprecise munitions for decades - then precision weapons. A2A missiles used to lock on radar signature leading to huge risks related to accidentally shooting airliners/friendly craft. Now antiship missiles dynamically select their target over 300km away to maximize the chance of hitting a big ship. During the war on terror, ML models would dec…

The line already drawn, no indiscriminate killings of civilians, all this technology only minimizes civilian suffering, furthermore it is more humane to use terminators instead of 20 years olds clearing buildings and autonomous tanks/tracks driving though IEDs filled streets. War is deeply in human nature, it is not going away, question is; how to make it more humane and minimize indiscriminate killings and suffering…

I would like to join other commenters in questioning whether or not civilians are already routinely and indiscriminately killed.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#257
Not knowing anything about Hinton's work, I am guessing there is no mystery to why he left. Many people leave after a couple of years. His initial grant of RSUs has vested and he wasn't able to make a sufficiently large impact within the company to justify him staying.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#258

We are barely scraping the surface when it comes to understanding the future dangers of AI. Geoffrey Hinton is uniquely positioned to point out where the dangers are, and from what I've gleaned from interviews one of his main concerns atm is the use of AI in the military: fully autonomous military robots might not be possible to curtail. The tried and tested method is international agreements. The current focus on ar…

My biggest concern for military use of AI is how incompetent most military contractors are. These huge companies employ an army of not-very-good engineers whose primary purpose seems to be to over-complicate projects. Imagine the same teams that make planes which need to be hard rebooted every few days, now they're making advanced AI to dynamically target and kill people.

> now they're making advanced AI to dynamically target and kill people.

I'm curious, which projects are working on this? Any ones that we know about?

In terms of production weapons I know the newer Switchblades, Excalibur, and even Javelin do some fancy automated targeting before the terminal phase but that's not really AI beyond image recognition and the targets/specific destination are pre-selected. I'm curious what sort of applications would use autonomous targeting without overt human involvement.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#259
post #99

“The idea that this stuff could actually get smarter than people — a few people believed that,” said Hinton to the NYT. “But most people thought it was way off. And I thought it was way off. I thought it was 30 to 50 years or even longer away. Obviously, I no longer think that.” Calculators are smarter then humans in calculating, what does he mean by that?

> Calculators are smarter then humans in calculating, what does he mean by that?

My understanding of what he means by that is a computer that is smarter than humans in everything, or nearly everything.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#260

Not knowing anything about Hinton's work, I am guessing there is no mystery to why he left. Many people leave after a couple of years. His initial grant of RSUs has vested and he wasn't able to make a sufficiently large impact within the company to justify him staying.

Is a 10 year vesting period normal?
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