I wish GPT4 had never happened • Hacker News Board

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#251

Post by __MatrixMan__ » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:15 PM UTC

pavel_lishin wrote: post #167

logicalmonster wrote: post #138

1) Chaudry's article is amazing in its lack of creative thinking. If people like Priya can be ~10 times more productive wielding some AI tools, that means that many companies can potentially produce 10 times as many products/services and make more things that will enrich peoples' lives. Though some people in some companies might be laid off, it doesn't necessarily mean that more people will be laid off than new jobs…

> that means that many companies can potentially produce 10 times as many products/services and make more things that will enrich peoples' lives. This has been the promise over and over again, for centuries, and it has consistently not paid off. Where's the predicted society where automation allows us all to work for two hours a day, and spend the rest at leisure? > Though some people in some companies might be laid…

> This has been the promise over and over again

And over and over again, we've underestimated and then normalized the capacity of our institutions, made of otherwise decent people, to achieve outcomes that we would call abhorrent if they were carried out by an individual. So the door closes on that opportunity because we fail to act.

If we're ever going to walk through that door, companies need to fear us, because they sure as hell aren't going to share with us out of the goodness of their hearts.

I'm not sure what the right move would be re: Priya. Maybe it's a strike for retraining benefits. Maybe it's a wave of resignation letters that mention her. Maybe it's an act of sabotage. But whatever it is, it has to be an existential threat because that's the only language besides money that our institutions understand.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#252

Post by DangitBobby » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:15 PM UTC

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #50

theusus wrote: post #8

This is a really pessimistic and shallow article. Who will prompt the AI for code? Manager? Also, you mentioned it gave wrong result at first. How did you know? Because you know how to code. As mentioned in other comment she should learn more about programming so she can become indispensible.

"The right moment to fire someone is the day before they become indispensable" It is not beneficial to human organizations to have indispensable members. You can argue it's not good for the mental health of the indispensable people either. When I first heard the quote in my first line, I thought it was cruel, inhumane and shockingly selfish on the part of employers. Nearly 30 years later, I see it almost entirely the…

Well it is needlessly cruel in inhumane. Why fire them? Train another cog so you have two identical cogs. No need to fire a working cog.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#253

Post by phpisthebest » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:15 PM UTC

transcoderx wrote: post #175

pavel_lishin wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that means that many companies can potentially produce 10 times as many products/services and make more things that will enrich peoples' lives. This has been the promise over and over again, for centuries, and it has consistently not paid off. Where's the predicted society where automation allows us all to work for two hours a day, and spend the rest at leisure? > Though some people in some companies might be laid…

How much do you think you would have had to pay for an iPhone 200 years ago? Are you sure society hasn't benefitted from productivity increases?

That depends on you believe society has actually benefited (on the whole) from iPhone, internet, social media etc

Which is a different question from productivity

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#254

Post by starkd » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:15 PM UTC

bryanlarsen wrote: post #160

safety1st wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As any student who takes Econ 101, or reads history, (or has heard of a country called Argentina? or has opened a newspaper during the past year of post-Covid inflation?) will learn, this assumption is factually incorrect. If you give everyone ten million dollars, there will be a phenomenal and rapid increase in the price of goods, especially consumer staples (since everyone got that money, and everyone buys staples)…

Sure if you give everybody 10 million dollars in pieces of paper, what you described happening will happen. Money is the measure of the productive capacity of an economy. If you increase the money without increasing the capacity then you get inflation. But let's be charitable and assume that "Gud" was talking about increasing the capacity commensurately. Because that's what's happening. AI, robots and almost zero mar…

Execting green energy to produce zero marginal cost is probably a bit too optimistic at this point. We have been adding green energy for at least 20 years now and energy keeps getting more expensive. Not even addressing whether its sustainable, but expecting a point at which additional solar panels or wind installations are going are going to produce extra energy at close to zero cost is expecting too much.

You might have that argument with nuclear energy, because most of the cost is upfront. But approval process for that will have to be expedited by congress.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#255

Post by brookst » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:16 PM UTC

inimino wrote: post #169

logicalmonster wrote: post #138

1) Chaudry's article is amazing in its lack of creative thinking. If people like Priya can be ~10 times more productive wielding some AI tools, that means that many companies can potentially produce 10 times as many products/services and make more things that will enrich peoples' lives. Though some people in some companies might be laid off, it doesn't necessarily mean that more people will be laid off than new jobs…

Your comment is amazing in its naivete. The first sentence in the post you are replying to already includes awareness of everything you said and more, while nothing in your comment suggests you understood the post at all. Priya doesn't become 10 times more productive, someone else uses the tool to do her job, which no longer exists.

How many people are in the workforce today compared to 100 years ago?

Shouldn’t the huge productivity gains we’ve seen mean that there are fewer people with jobs today than there were then, by your reasoning?

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#256

Post by kissgyorgy » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:16 PM UTC

I 100% agree. GPT-4 just deepens the already huge gap between the richest and poorest and will raise another tech giant.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#257

Post by eloff » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:16 PM UTC

Veen wrote: post #225

eloff wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That cycle has gone on since the start of the Industrial Revolution. Jobs are destroyed, people complain and protest, new jobs are created and the total economic pie and the absolute size of the average person’s slice increases. A valid question is are there inventions for which this would not be true? I think yes for general AI, but also yes for people who are unable to migrate between a job lost and any of the new…

You're right, but the phrase "people complain" elides a lot and shows a callous lack of empathy. People complain because they lose their jobs, their homes, their standard of living, their future prospects, their ability to feed their families, their relationships, their social status, their healthcare benefits and therefore their healthcare, their mental health, and in some cases their lives (suicide is not unusual f…

How that is handled really comes down to how your society has agreed to establish a social safety net.

In Northern Europe it’s handled quite well. In the U.S. it’s handled with a “callous lack of empathy” as you phrased it.

My point is disruption is the engine of progress, but it also causes temporary pain (that might not be temporary on the scale of human lifetimes.) It’s the wrong reaction to want to stop or slow progress. You can actually prove that through the lens of game theory and the fact that we have multiple human societies. The right thing to do is ensure your society doesn’t leave the losers of that process behind.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#258

Post by goldemerald » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:16 PM UTC

surgical_fire wrote: post #156

Funny thing - I've been using ChatGPT as a programming assistant. My experience with it is that the more knowledgeable I am at the domain, the more useful it is. It often generates code that won't compile or won't run correctly, but that sort of goes in the correct direction, enough that I can spot the blunders and refine my questions. Quite often I even learn a few new things when using it to explore libraries and f…

This article is not about ChatGPT, but GPT-4. I've found the latter to be significantly better at being a coding assistant in all areas: the code actually compiles and often works out of the box. Even better than chat, I can paste it's generated code and simply respond with any errors given and it will fix it accordingly, something I had lots of trouble using chat to do. GPT-4 is that much better and it makes sense to me that the author is lamenting now and not 4 months ago.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#259

Post by rvz » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:16 PM UTC

> I don’t see a long-term career in software anymore. Any dreams I had of earning decent money as a software engineer are slowly fading. Lex Fridman in his podcast said “if you’re anxious about GPT4 its probably because you’re a shitty programmer”. I mean, I’m not the smartest in the room but I have generated value with the software I’ve made. And was convinced that I’ll make decent money as long as put in the work. I’m just not that sure anymore.

The flushing of the mediocre has begun. Already scared of a bullshitting sophist and Lex Friedman is correct on this. This also puts title inflation into perspective with so-called 'senior' engineers being actually less than junior; deferring to GPT-4 for everything and expecting hopelessly utopian salaries which will be certainly reduced. I'm afraid GPT-4 has fired the gun to the race to zero, with everyone (including both juniors and seniors) being affected.

Learn to adapt.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#260

Post by neltnerb » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:16 PM UTC

namarie wrote: post #207

listenallyall wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can do that without it being a job Yes, you can , but his argument is that most people don't -- and he's right.

I think people are confusing having a job with work . Making things out of epoxy resin takes a lot of work and it's satisfying. If everyone had UBI people would absolutely still work a lot. It's just that they wouldn't have to have a job in order not to become destitute.

Yeah, I am confused by the idea that not being forced to work to stay alive means your can't (or won't, whatever) find anything of worth to do with your life.

Where did that unexamined assumption come from? Do they care about nothing other than standard employment based "work" and so never considered doing something other than staring at a wall when they're not doing it?

Family. Friends. Volunteering. Gardening. Games. Hobbies. Learning to play music, or cook, or who knows... studying biochemistry and doing that because it's rewarding and easier to do in a setting with more people in the same place. Or starting a company if that's your thing, or call it an open-X project and build a community that doesn't require "work" to contribute.

I'm so confused, why on Earth would the agency to choose be bad, it's so patronizing.