Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because: 1) taxation destroys money. 2) new money can be absorbed by economic growth. Imagine you have $100 in an economy and 100 apples. $100 is added, so there’s $200/100 apples. Inflation might occur. But if you make 100 more apples, so there’s $200/200 apples, the ratio of money to goods didn’t change, and you wouldn’t get inflation. That’s an extremely contrived example, but it gets the point across. Considering…
Hence the new budget designed to tax everyone to the gills. The fed and the government is coming to terms with the fact that they can't magically conjure up growth.
Banking in uncertain times
251–260 of 378 posts
Re: Banking in uncertain times
#252Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because: 1) taxation destroys money. 2) new money can be absorbed by economic growth. Imagine you have $100 in an economy and 100 apples. $100 is added, so there’s $200/100 apples. Inflation might occur. But if you make 100 more apples, so there’s $200/200 apples, the ratio of money to goods didn’t change, and you wouldn’t get inflation. That’s an extremely contrived example, but it gets the point across. Considering…
Even in this example where inflation doesn’t occur, consumers will never benefit from the productivity gains that allowed producers to make more apples. Something clearly changed that allowed more apples to be produced. Maybe a significant amount of capital was invested in more machines, or a new, faster growing cultivar of apple was developed. In any case, the entire benefit of the free market economy is that compet…
Re: Banking in uncertain times
#253Earlier quoted context omitted.
I just don't get this about the system in the US. If you keep creating money out of thin air — which as per my admittedly naive understanding is equivalent to just printing money without giving back anything in return — wouldn't it ultimately lead to a collapse or a hyper inflation? Like it did in Venezuela a few years ago (???). Why is the US seemingly immune to this kind of thing?
The money is mostly created as debt, with the obligation to repay more money. So it's not "not giving anything back in return". A company wants some money to fund business expansion. So it borrows $1m with a promise to pay $1.06m back, which it can fund because it has customers. The bank in turn can fund this by borrowing $1m and promising to pay back $1.03m (when lending activity increases this money comes from the…
Re: Banking in uncertain times
#254Earlier quoted context omitted.
There are many problems with your understanding, but the simplest total failure of your model is that if the bank did just get the money from somewhere else to lend, it is not creating it. You are not describing the bank "creating" money, which they actually do as per how I described. You are describing the bank borrowing money.
I disagree . And language can get tricky here. You don't need deposit amounts in order to make loans. There is a bunch of gymnastics under the hood of the transaction I described but none of it requires consumer deposits.
If you need to involve the FED (which you don't as per how I described) then the FED creates the money, not the banks. This invalidates your entire premise.
Re: Banking in uncertain times
#255The article does something it shouldn't do: Conflate short term interest rates with holding 10 year treasuries. At least compare like for like. The yield curve has moved up, but not by the 4% in the article, and 'up' compared to.. quantitative easing time. From https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/... 2023-03-14: 10Y: 3.64 2021-03-12: 10Y: 1.64 2019-03-14: 10Y: 2.63 2017-03-14: 10Y: 2.60 2015-0…
> We went multiple years without a bank failure, of any size, in the United States. This is objectively false, unless by "multiple years" he means 2 years. The data is out in the public[1] so why not do some basic research before putting out claims like that? Basic mistakes like this makes me question rest of the article and the author's grip on the subject. https://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/bank/
Re: Banking in uncertain times
#256Earlier quoted context omitted.
This isn’t an accurate description of the mechanics of money printing in the US, the UK or the EU.
Interpreting "printing money" to replace the more technical "controlling the size of the monetary base[1]" seems reasonable. How is that incorrect? Unless you're talking about literal printing press operations, "the fed tries to tweak the money supply to control inflation as one of its dual mandates" seems like an absolute correct, if simple, explanation of why we don't have hyperinflation. (I know tone is hard to co…
Re: Banking in uncertain times
#257Earlier quoted context omitted.
Interpreting "printing money" to replace the more technical "controlling the size of the monetary base[1]" seems reasonable. How is that incorrect? Unless you're talking about literal printing press operations, "the fed tries to tweak the money supply to control inflation as one of its dual mandates" seems like an absolute correct, if simple, explanation of why we don't have hyperinflation. (I know tone is hard to co…
>> Interpreting "printing money" to replace the more technical "controlling the size of the monetary base[1]" These are different things. Printed money is cash (or currency) and it represents a small amount of the total money in use, just under 3% in the UK. I don't have the figure to hand for the US but it's comparable, less than an order of magnitude difference. Printing money isn't a significant driver of the size…
Re: Banking in uncertain times
#258> Society depends on this mismatch existing. It must exist somewhere. The alternative is a much poorer and riskier world, which includes dystopian instruments that are so obviously bad you’d have to invent names for them.
I guess I'll dispute this. It is useful that this mismatch exists, since it (1) lowers the cost of long-term borrowing for mortgagors, businesses, and governments and (2) lowers the (direct and/or opportunity) cost of holding cash. But I don't think society is dependent on this mismatch, and I don't think the alternative would be anywhere near as bleak as Patrick suggests.
If bank regulators changed capital requirements to require banks to fully back deposits with cash equivalents, long-term borrowing would be a lot more expensive, but the market would still clear. There's already plenty of demand for safe long-term debt, and that demand would only increase as long-term interest rates went up. E.g., if checking accounts paid -2% interest and CDs paid 10%, lenders would put less money in checking and more in CDs, even if it meant they would have to sell the CD at a discount if they needed liquidity.
Of course, the US government will take any and every opportunity it can get to indirectly subsidize mortgages, so this is pretty moot in practice.
Re: Banking in uncertain times
#259In defense of bailouts, we need to acknowledge the systemic risks that a failing bank can pose to the broader economy. If we let a major bank collapse without intervention, the consequences could be far-reaching and have negative ripple effects throughout the financial system. By stepping in and providing a bailout, the government helps to maintain confidence and stability, ensuring that the entire system doesn't col…
Re: Banking in uncertain times
#260Earlier quoted context omitted.
If those assets are in your hold to maturity portfolio, they are still worth $100m. This return is guaranteed unless the Federal Bank defaults on those treasuries.
$100m future dollars , which are less valuable than present dollars.
The day you are paid, you will still get handed exactly $100m million.
Every day between now and then you will still have exactly $100m in bond holdings. How many cheeseburgers you can buy with that number of dollars may change from day to day, but the number of dollars will not.