Stock market charts you never saw (2021) • Hacker News Board

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#251

Post by coliveira » Fri, Jan 20, 2023, 1:19 PM UTC

bionsystem wrote: post #235

trompetenaccoun wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone doesn't know how to successfully invest or there wouldn't be so many middle class and poor people. Buying and holding (a broad index tracker) seems like the best strategy for someone who doesn't know about the businesses or can't be bothered to follow the market. It's the most passive strategy. Imo the mistake most make is they mentally compare it to themselves reading a bit online and then picking stocks ba…

There are hedge funds beating markets over and over, some have been macro driven, some are equity driven, some are quant driven... Now of course it's a pareto law, only a handful out of 100 will get all the excess return and the others will stagnate or underperform indices (or even fail completely). But the same goes for building any company, most of them fail and we watch winners in awe.

Most hedge funds don't beat the market, and this is widely known. Moreover, from the few that beat the market, some are involved in insider trading and other deceptive practices. From the remaining ones, a good portion can be explained by sheer luck.

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#252

Post by coliveira » Fri, Jan 20, 2023, 1:22 PM UTC

baby wrote: post #242

bionsystem wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are hedge funds beating markets over and over, some have been macro driven, some are equity driven, some are quant driven... Now of course it's a pareto law, only a handful out of 100 will get all the excess return and the others will stagnate or underperform indices (or even fail completely). But the same goes for building any company, most of them fail and we watch winners in awe.

I remember reading this book pointing out that the big hedge funds that would repeatedly beating markets in the past ended up failing hard in recent years. That really nothing beats index funds.

Some people will point to Warren Buffet, but he is not really a "normal" investor. Buffet only invests in a company after he talks directly to management and does a lot of analysis that is not available to normal investors. I consider him to be a legal insider trader.

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#253

Post by ghaff » Fri, Jan 20, 2023, 2:07 PM UTC

rgmerk wrote: post #190

8note wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd expect a good portion of deaths involve very expensive health care for the last few months or years of life. Live off dividends, then sell to pay for the healthcare right before you die

In the US. In most other developed countries a) healthcare is funded by the government (to a first approximation). b) end-of-life healthcare expenditure is considerably lower outside the US.

And Medicare for those 65 and older in the US is funded by the government.

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#254

Post by bennyelv » Fri, Jan 20, 2023, 2:10 PM UTC

duderific wrote: post #110

nly wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Peoples perceptions of number sizes don't change quickly. 1 million will still seem like a big number. It's likely at some point we'll have to re-denominate. There will be a 'new Pound' or something that is worth 100 'old Pounds'. You can see the number phenomenon today. People still talk about "winning £1M on the Lottery" like it'd set them up for a life of luxury. To reasonably replace even a median UK full-time sa…

Or we can make 100 trillion pound notes like in Zimbabwe https://www.cnn.com/2016/05/06/africa/zimbabwe-trillion-doll...

It was ZWB (Zimbabwe dollars), but I can see why you would assume "pound" given the country's history. Source: I have one of these notes on my coffee table :) It lives with a $1 bill that was printed only a couple of years before it.

Bad stuff happens when a government gets these things wrong!

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#255

Post by 314 » Fri, Jan 20, 2023, 2:48 PM UTC

robbintt wrote: post #229

ryeights wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is not known, however, is if those returns were achieved through legal means…

Are you referring to the tax evasion? I think they paid a slap on the wrist. Otherwise I am interested.

Bernie Madoff promised high returns while obfuscating his business model as well. It went well until it no longer did.

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#256

Post by 314 » Fri, Jan 20, 2023, 2:54 PM UTC

tiffanyh wrote: post #198

Geometric mean I’m surprised to see no mention of geometric mean . People far too often incorrectly use Arithmetic Mean (“average”), which doesn’t compute correctly due to the compounding nature of the stock market. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/071113/break...

One of the main discussions in the paper is about the difference between arithmetic means and geometric means, and how people have different perceptions of annualized returns. Perhaps you should read it (again)?

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#257

Post by gbasin » Fri, Jan 20, 2023, 3:09 PM UTC

metacritic12 wrote: post #9

nfcampos wrote: post #4

Revised follow-up paper https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3805927

It seems like this follow up paper clarifies the data's vision a lot more. Notable changes from the previous version discussed in a sister thread here: - There is no more emphasis on price-only-inflation-adjusted returns. Good riddance: getting rid of dividends makes no sense and is borderline intellectually dishonest just to make the point. - He no longer argues stocks don't work for the long run, just that bonds we…

The 3rd one is interesting and something I hadn't considered as much before — may be applicable still in less regulated markets

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#258

Post by Aachen » Fri, Jan 20, 2023, 3:42 PM UTC

anyfoo wrote: post #195

Aachen wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's why one is advised not to invest what one cannot miss

But then what? Put it into a money market account where it gets eaten up by inflation?

More like a bank account falling under the deposit insurance. Don't gamble with money you can't do without, is what I was trying to convey.

If you mean for a pension (assuming there is no state-supplied minimum pension that you could live from if necessary), get a pension plan where it stipulates how much you'll get per month rather than something where you depend directly on the market's daily whims.

Very wide-spread ETFs are an exception due to their track record: if you are rich enough that you could survive a 15-year market recession then those are an option as well.

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#259

Post by awb » Fri, Jan 20, 2023, 3:47 PM UTC

ClumsyPilot wrote: post #200

awb wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think they've been slow for maybe the last 20 years Really? 20 years is the difference between a generation being raised pre/post: * smart phones * streaming services (endless free content) * massive computing storage / processing upgrades * mass adoption of eCommerce * video calling * ubiquitous social networking * EVs * mRNA vaccines * Mars exploration * LHC * 3D printing It amazes me to look back at 2003 and s…

Between 1940s to 1980s we went from a disconnected world to spaceflight, moon landings and global commercial aviation. Radar was invented, the atom was split, nuclear weapons shook the world. Television appeared What have you got to place against that, smartphones? Streaming, seruously?

40s-80s is a 40y gap vs. 02-23 is a 20y gap.

The last 20 years have been more revolutionary from a digital / social / information perspective. A person in a remote village in a foreign country can now use StarLink to access the world’s information on Wikipedia. They can learn any new skill on YouTube. And they can work for a large US tech company via Slack / Skype, or open up a small business on Shopify and accept money instantly in any currency. Translation across any two languages can be done instantly via smartphone. It’s transforming cultures, countries and the global marketplace.

It doesn’t have the visual of a moon landing, but it’s still incredible and has more practical implications for a larger number of people.

I don’t think we’ll really start to see how massive the impact is until another 20 years when we look back and see the ripple effects of this digital connection we’re creating throughout the world.

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#260

Post by Invictus0 » Fri, Jan 20, 2023, 3:52 PM UTC

astrange wrote: post #233

Invictus0 wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Think about your investments intelligently instead of looking for a guaranteed sinecure.

Do not do that. Thinking about investments violates like four of the rules. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bogleheads®_investment_philo... The purpose of financial advisors is to stop people from thinking; if you just stop thinking on your own you'll never need one.

I could hardly imagine a dumber thing to say but you do you buddy.