In the past, I've had students call my problem sets “emotionally trying”

> After all, he might have gone pro but he wasn't even in the top half nevermind the top quartile.

No, he was deep in the top percentile of players. By the time you even get to NFL draft, you're clearly one of the best ones. Even the last draftee will make millions of dollars. To make your analogy meaningful, instead of comparing top 250 players, compare top 10,000 ones. If you're not in top 10,000 football players, should you stop striving for career in professional football? Hell yeah.

> Let's take another biological example, which is weight training. (...) What would you say to someone who said "if you're not cutting it at the gym, better quit early rather than later?"

This is another false analogy. People who go to the gym do this for their own personal benefit, not to make a career out of it. These are completely different scenarios. I'm not telling people that they should quit learning stuff for their own personal benefit, only to quit dreaming about the research career if they are unlikely to succeed in it.

> Is it really the case that you have found a cheat code and one true metric to determine whether a human will reach academic significance or not?

You really are unable to resist strawmanning, aren't you? Can you quote exactly what made you think I claim that? Can you honestly engage in what I actually say?

You're right about mediocre researchers and their career satisfaction, and you're right to say that there's too many people pursuing research careers who shouldn't, but on the one hand you 're saying that some people are talented and special and on the other hand you're saying that the people who do well in life are those whose circumstances other than their talent (e.g. caring for a disabled child) enable them to make a valuable contribution to science.

So, someone who is talented and special, can nevertheless fail to make a valuable contribution because of their other circumstances. That's not life being unfair in handing out talent to everyone, that's the organisation of society being dysfunctional. Who knows what groundbreaking discoveries we are missing because the next Einstein or the next Darwin is a single mother of two living on benefits, in some inner city ghetto? If talent is not cultivated, it never yields fruit.

There's unfairness, and then there's the incompetence and pretentiousness of people who hold the keys to the treasury. I think the concern is mainly with the incompetence, and when people complain about unfairness, often it's the incompetence that really bothers them. After all, you can't do anything about unfairness, we really can't all be Albert fucking Einstein. But we should really be able to do a lot more about the incompetence that keeps most people from reaching their true potential.

Btw, I so disagree with you about what school results tell you about kids' talents, but that's another discussion I guess.

> Our dang wants this place to be all about intellectual curiosity but most users just want to vent and argue a bit, right?

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Let's go back to the Tom Brady example [1]. The last pick in the draft isn't coming from someone who was already at the top of his game. It's coming from someone who before that point had a history of not being top of the pack both on his high school team and college team. Would you say he's in the top 10,000 football players when he has NEVER been a starter?

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Brady began his football career as the backup quarterback on the Padres junior varsity team. At first, Brady was not good enough to start on the 0–8 JV team, which had not scored a touchdown all year.[25] Brady ascended to the starting position when the starting quarterback was injured. He became the varsity starter in his junior year and held the position until he graduated.[26]

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Brady played college football at the University of Michigan from 1995 to 1999.[41][42] After redshirting in 1995,[43] Brady spent the next two years as a backup quarterback, while teammate and future NFL quarterback Brian Griese led the 1997 Wolverines to an undefeated season, which was capped by a victory in the Rose Bowl and a share of the national championship.[44] When he initially enrolled at Michigan, Brady was seventh on the depth chart, and he had an intense struggle to get some playing time. At one point, Brady hired a sports psychologist to help him cope with frustration and anxiety; he even considered transferring to the University of California, Berkeley to play for the California Golden Bears.[45][46]

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With Tom Brady, you have someone who objectively, quantitatively and qualitatively, was not top of the pack in high school or in college or at draft, the formative years where the wheat is physically supposed to separate from the chaff. And yet, he ended up developing into the best player of all time.

More generally, I'd say that it's not a strawman when someone points out where you're not engaging with details and concrete examples someone else is bringing up. It just means that at best, you don't think it's worth your time to engage with the details, or at worst, you just don't think that rigorously.

I'm not here to tell you how to live your life. It's yours to live and not mine. But my unsolicited advice is that you'd probably live a more fulfilling life if you did a better job at reading between the lines and absorbing the detail from those that disagreed with you, rather than defensively taking it as an affront towards your character. I've made clear at multiple points that I agree with a lot of what you said, but disagree with enough of how you get there to voice it over because I think it's based on risky assumptions. I've also cited really specific examples so that we're not arguing on rhetoric, but you refuse to return in kind. Why do you feel above needing to explain with evidence and substantiation, and detail? There is no need to feel shame at being wrong. None of us are perfect. Changing your mind isn't proof of being unintelligent; on the contrary, it's proof that you're awake, aware, learning and growing. The "smartest" and certainly the most successful people do this the most, not the least.

At this point, I've said my piece. If you want to ignore evidence which is inconvenient to your conclusions, then be my guest, but ironically then, you'd be guilty of "when the activity is intellectual, rather than physical, however, people tend to react more emotionally, or allow their ideology to overshadow some hard facts about human existence."

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Brady

Didn't Einstein say something like the reason he worked out General Relativity first was that he stayed with the problem longer rather than that we was actually smarter than all the others in the field?

And there is Edison's aphorism, something like "Invention is 1% inspiration, 99% perspiration."

There is plenty to do for those who are not the absolute smartest.