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Who killed nuclear energy and how to revive it

americanaffairsjournal.org

251–260 of 277 posts

Re: Who killed nuclear energy and how to revive it

#251
post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Solar panels use rare earth metals This is a falsehood, one that Shellenberger was notorious for spreading. No, solar panels do not use rare earth metals. That you repeat this well-debunked lie suggests you're getting your talking points from an echo chamber, not reliable sources.

Sorry, you're quite right that they don't use rare earth metals -- I was thinking of the Cadmium telluride and CIGS combinations used in some thin-film solar panels (which aren't rare earth metals -- it's been a while since I've done chemistry), but looking at it some more it seems like they aren't toxic (even though the constituent elements are). My bad (though I don't know who Shellenberger is.) However, since the…

CIGS has close to zero market share. CdTe is around 5%, last I checked.

The vast majority of PV sold is crystalline silicon. The only toxic element used there is lead in backing sheets, but even that is being phased out (in part for environmental reasons, and in part because higher efficiency versions of Si cells can't tolerate the heating needed to bond to the lead; in any case there is nothing essential about the lead.) The only rare element used is silver for front contacts, but that could be replaced by copper with the use of a very thin layer of nickel or molybdenum to prevent reaction of the copper with the silicon.

The environmental impact from PV is largely from the mundane components, like steel, aluminum, and glass. PV to power the world would use these materials in small quantities compared to that used for global industrial society as a whole (global annual production of steel is 2 billion tonnes, for example). If that society deals with the impact of its overall non-energy activities, it could deal with the impact of building and maintaining a PV energy source to power it.

Re: Who killed nuclear energy and how to revive it

#252
post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is simply no evidence that nuclear power is dangerous Wait, what? You even started your own reply with “Nuclear power is not without risk.” > a lot of evidence to suggest it is the safest, most effective power source we have created. A lot of evidence also suggest the opposite. Again, you took the time to explain how technically nuclear was simple, without engaging with the context it is used in. PS: Fataliti…

Its a full footprint measurement. Coal miner deaths for instance count against it. A study attempted to aggregate fatalities from atmospheric effects from emissions. It does make nuclear look particularly good, but this is also because it is so energy dense that effort is efficiently allocated. It makes everything except oil and coal look good on a chart. Most of the deaths attributed to nuclear are more steam plant…

> Its a full footprint measurement.

Nope, I was interested and looked at a few publications compiling it, and as its name says it only takes directly attributed deaths into account. Albeit it will count air pollution and particles from coal operation as leading to deaths. An example of that: https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2011/03/deaths-per-twh-by-ener...

Of course that number also relies on governments providing the stats, and no gov wants to give accurate numbers on what’s happening with nuclear waste for instance, or water pollution. Even now the JP gov. is in half denial as it would be a further economical catastrophe to fully own it.

A way better number would be the maintenance, healthcare and environmental cost per energy produced, which would put nuclear way behind anything but fossil energy.

Re: Who killed nuclear energy and how to revive it

#253
post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its a full footprint measurement. Coal miner deaths for instance count against it. A study attempted to aggregate fatalities from atmospheric effects from emissions. It does make nuclear look particularly good, but this is also because it is so energy dense that effort is efficiently allocated. It makes everything except oil and coal look good on a chart. Most of the deaths attributed to nuclear are more steam plant…

> Its a full footprint measurement. Nope, I was interested and looked at a few publications compiling it, and as its name says it only takes directly attributed deaths into account. Albeit it will count air pollution and particles from coal operation as leading to deaths. An example of that: https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2011/03/deaths-per-twh-by-ener... Of course that number also relies on governments providing the…

Wind and solar numbers should also include amortization for deaths during power outages and deaths caused by peaker plants.

Re: Who killed nuclear energy and how to revive it

#254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not killing all the fish in a river is also generally something that should be aimed for, since that can have knock on effects on ecosystems. We’d rather not find out what happens and accidentally instigate some kind of environmental disaster that might lead to farm failures or something unexpected.

The limit on the temperature is as low as 26C or 79F. It's not like the river is boiling. Furthermore this heat dissipates downstream, it's not affecting the entire waterway. This heat has the potential to harm fish in a segment of a few rivers. By comparison, throttling carbon-free energy production has the certain impact of producing more greenhouse gases, which will contribute to global climate change. I seriously…

* many rivers have some kind of migratory fish integral to ecosystems in both the river and whatever the outlet is, so you can’t just mark rivers as discrete segments and say the effect is isolated

* the oceans haven’t warmed by all that much and we are already seeing the impacts, it’s not really that much of a stretch to say rivers would see similar effects

* given humanity’s track record with the question “how bad could this be?” and unintended consequences, erring on the side of caution seems warranted. In particular, humanity has a bad track record with river management

Re: Who killed nuclear energy and how to revive it

#255
post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Solar panels use rare earth metals This is a falsehood, one that Shellenberger was notorious for spreading. No, solar panels do not use rare earth metals. That you repeat this well-debunked lie suggests you're getting your talking points from an echo chamber, not reliable sources.

Sorry, you're quite right that they don't use rare earth metals -- I was thinking of the Cadmium telluride and CIGS combinations used in some thin-film solar panels (which aren't rare earth metals -- it's been a while since I've done chemistry), but looking at it some more it seems like they aren't toxic (even though the constituent elements are). My bad (though I don't know who Shellenberger is.) However, since the…

> However, since the currently proposed solution for renewables is to pair them with large battery banks to solve the reliability issue, the greenness issues with batteries still stand.

Incorrect. First of all, utility scale power storage can be done many ways, such as pumping water up a hill in the daytime and then letting it flow back down the hill at night.

These are called "kinetic battery towers" or more generically "gravity batteries" https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_battery

As far as classical batteries go there's many chemistries coming online soon that are far less hazardous such as sodium ion batteries

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sodium-ion_battery

There's also saltwater chemistries, sugar based, paper nanotube, it's a long list.

When considering nuclear we're always told to look at the currently nonexistent small scale next gen advanced nuclear of the future. Then it gets compared to renewable energy technology from 15 years ago.

It's either intellectually sloppy or dishonest. Either way it's bad engineering. We can do better than nuclear - cheaper, safer, quicker to build, less management required, more scalable, etc. We don't have to worry about secret weapons programs or have international treaties to build them, no tsunami or earthquake risks, and best of all, the alternatives actually exists today

Re: Who killed nuclear energy and how to revive it

#256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Its a full footprint measurement. Nope, I was interested and looked at a few publications compiling it, and as its name says it only takes directly attributed deaths into account. Albeit it will count air pollution and particles from coal operation as leading to deaths. An example of that: https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2011/03/deaths-per-twh-by-ener... Of course that number also relies on governments providing the…

Wind and solar numbers should also include amortization for deaths during power outages and deaths caused by peaker plants.

To me that whole notion of “# of deaths by xxxx” is starting to look so absurd. Would we compare fry pans by looking at the number of death per meals cooked ? Even going for a pure lead sprinkled with Teflon flakes pan wouldn’t give us any interesting number by that metrics, and I feel energy production is basically the same.

There needs to be more granularity than “death”, and the numbers need to come from somewhere else than the government also involved in running the plants.

Re: Who killed nuclear energy and how to revive it

#257
post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, you're quite right that they don't use rare earth metals -- I was thinking of the Cadmium telluride and CIGS combinations used in some thin-film solar panels (which aren't rare earth metals -- it's been a while since I've done chemistry), but looking at it some more it seems like they aren't toxic (even though the constituent elements are). My bad (though I don't know who Shellenberger is.) However, since the…

> However, since the currently proposed solution for renewables is to pair them with large battery banks to solve the reliability issue, the greenness issues with batteries still stand. Incorrect. First of all, utility scale power storage can be done many ways, such as pumping water up a hill in the daytime and then letting it flow back down the hill at night. These are called "kinetic battery towers" or more generic…

> Incorrect. First of all, utility scale power storage can be done many ways, such as pumping water up a hill in the daytime and then letting it flow back down the hill at night.

This requires specific geography (natural elevation and water reservoirs that can be used for this purpose without affecting the local environment and without creating a flood risk for local residents) which is not available everywhere in the world where we would need to generate power (and if we're playing the game where every negative externality is an issue with the technology, there's also the general environmental concerns with dams). I think it's disingenuous to argue that the primary plan at the moment is not batteries -- that is where an enormous amount of time and resources are being invested, and the entire conversation about the reliability issue with renewables is usually hand-waved away with "batteries".

> These are called "kinetic battery towers" or more generically "gravity batteries" https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_battery

These sound reasonable when you first hear the idea, but they're unworkable for a few reasons (wind, you don't get that much storage from each block, and if the blocks are concrete you're probably going to be net-negative when it comes to CO2 for a long time). Pumped-storage hydro is a far better solution where you can use it (with the caveats above).

> When considering nuclear we're always told to look at the currently nonexistent small scale next gen advanced nuclear of the future. Then it gets compared to renewable energy technology from 15 years ago.

Maybe that is what other people argue, I am not arguing that. But I do find it funny you go out of your way to talk about a technology (sodium-ion batteries) which the Wikipedia article you linked explicitly says has basically no market share and has very significant drawbacks (limited energy density and very limited recharge cycles) -- if we can't talk about non-existing nuclear technology then we also shouldn't talk about currently-non-viable battery technology.

> It's either intellectually sloppy or dishonest. Either way it's bad engineering.

I don't understand why you're arguing against things I am not saying. The original criticism I was responding to argued that nuclear power has many negative externalities that nobody talks about (the list even included the usage of concrete) -- my point was simply that if that is the metric you wish to use, then no form of renewable energy can be considered green (any power station immediately becomes non-green purely because it uses concrete!). My point was simply that's a ludicrous metric to use.

Re: Who killed nuclear energy and how to revive it

#258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> B. Dealing With Variability and Stability > Much of the resistance towards 100% RE systems in the literature seems to come from the a-priori assumption that an energy system based on solar and wind is impossible since these energy sources are variable. Critics of 100% RE systems like to contrast solar and wind with ’firm’ energy sources like nuclear and fossil fuels (often combined with CCS) that bring their own st…

Yes, it’s fairly obvious that one would have to oversize capacity, etc. to get to renewable purity. But note this is all hand-wavy future talk, whereas in the here and now, the over reliance has led to higher fossil fuel use. It’s like language design, where language features could be thought of free with a ‘sufficiently smart compiler’. In theory, yes 100% renewable is possible. In theory, theory and practice are th…

> But note this is all hand-wavy future talk, whereas in the here and now, the over reliance has led to higher fossil fuel use.

I don't see how this claim could make any sense. Are you saying that if we didn't have renewables, we'd be using less fossil fuels? How could that be? In the US, nuclear construction flatlined long before wind and solar came along. Were renewables not coming on now, the alternative would be fossil fuels, and in particular natural gas. Elsewhere, coal would have been the alternative.

Perhaps you're saying that IF CO2 charges were added, nuclear would have been favored. But with CO2 charges, renewables are also favored, and likely dominate at a lower CO2 charge level than would be required for nuclear. Getting the last bit of generation fully defossilized on a nuclear grid would require truly enormous CO2 taxes, perhaps as much as $1000/tonne.

Re: Who killed nuclear energy and how to revive it

#259
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The alternative is not fossil fuels, that's arguing a strawman, it is renewables.

It’s not a straw man, it’s the whole point, and no one is saying not to push as hard as possible on renewables too. Porque no los dos? The best part of nuclear is that it slots in for coal as base load with no other changes. If we can do that until solar+wind+storage catch up we can get to net zero faster.

"Nuclear" and "faster" don't belong in the same sentence. Renewables can be brought online, and start displacing CO2 emissions, far faster than nuclear can. Any expenditure on new nuclear is a move away from the optimal path to reducing CO2 emission.

Re: Who killed nuclear energy and how to revive it

#260

Some counterintuitive “cheery thoughts”. The “safety” aspect of nuclear power is usually discussed in the most narrow sense. The regulatory burdens may be excessive but no other power source is a thermonuclear weapon in a “close to critical state” as its normal condition. Yes, one could fly a small plane into one and maybe nothing will happen but as the Ukraine war points out military grade attacks are not counted in…

> thermonuclear weapon

Unless they've installed fusion reactors while I wasn't looking, no nuclear power plant is "thermonuclear".

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