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Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

briangitt.com

251–260 of 295 posts

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Panel temps go up and down depending on time, date, location, and weather. On cool, sunny spring days you can see panels produce more than they are rated. You can’t simply apply a fixed worst-case derate for all time to all panels regardless of installation details. Further, the derates are not additive, they are multiplicative. (A a 20% panel which has degraded in lab efficiency by 10% operating at 90% thermal effic…

A device that's 15% efficient is inherently more wasteful than a device that's 100% efficient, right? Therefore we're wasting something . That thing isn't input fuel, it's the materials used to build the device, and manage its lifecycle. That doesn't mean it's free - it just means we're considering different inputs. Total efficiency here is the sum of all inputs over outputs. For solar panels that's land use, that's…

A nuclear plant that is 100% efficient would be better than the current ~40% units but it is thermodynamically impossible. Thanks Carnot.

You are confusing operating/marginal efficiency with lifetime efficiency. Think about a power plant as a series of payments. You have one big up front payment to build the thing and a series of smaller payments to buy fuel and run it.

For solar, those smaller payments are zero. There is still the fixed upfront payment and that is why you would prefer 40% efficient panels to 20% efficient panels everything else being equal.

The marginal cost of rooftop solar is zero. Nothing is wasted. Really! No fuel is bought, the roof underneath is cooler and lasts longer, there are systemic benefits, etc. There is virtually no maintenance. No land is used (Solar land use is complicated but most places you can put solar wouldn’t support a nuclear plant). Light which would have bounced back into space or turned into infrared is instead made into usable, high grade energy. Land/build area that would otherwise do nothing is made useful. It is literally close to economic and physical magic. It is true that panels break, inverters die, upgrading is compelling, etc. However, most components are silicon, glass, copper, and aluminum. These are some of the most recyclable materials on earth. There are plenty of analyses of lifecycle energy and material costs and it is generally pretty favorable (1-2 year operating recovery time). The panels are warrantied in many cases for 25 years so idk where your 20 year then scrap lifespan comes from. Inverters tend to be the weaker link.

Finally batteries have marginal round trip efficiency because what you put in doesn’t come back out 1-1 so I am not sure I follow your point.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#252

The cost per kWh of solar and wind is a third of natural gas and nuclear. It's not even close. Filling the gaps left by intermittent production with storage is rapidly decreasing in costs, and will soon be low enough that Solar/Wind/Storage will outcompete Natural Gas or nuclear 95% of the time. There is probably a small role for other sources in filling capacity gaps during uncommon weather events (i.e. natural gas…

Could somebody smarter than me comment on the feasibility of geothermal energy breakthroughs like gyrotron drilling?

https://undecidedmf.com/episodes/why-this-fusion-tech-may-be...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gyrotron

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"we guys" also had Peter Altmaier, Markus Söder, and all the other Conservative leaders who successfully legislated solar & wind to death.

Are you sure you're not just making excuses for the failure of renewables in Germany to replace fossil fuels? Again, I mentioned Germany, but it isn't just Germany. No country in the world is running on wind/solar. There are no near-term plans for any country on Earth to replace fossil fuels with wind/solar. It isn't the fact that some conservative leaders put some extra taxes or regulations on solar and wind. It's t…

Yes, I'm pretty sure. The conservative govts of the different regions introduced legislation that meant you can't currently build wind energy _at all_ in many of the places where it would make sense. That wasn't a fluke; the stated intent was to keep wind energy from "ruining our beautiful landscape". The new (SPD/green/liberals) coalition is just in the process of slowly unwinding these.

For solar, the ministries are by now steeped in a mentality that's hostile to renewables. Robert Habeck (greens) is now minister of economy and ecology, and even when he told his houses to come up with regulation improvements to solar, the results were... weird. One report stated that the proposals included rules like "if I use any of my own PV generated power in my home, I receive none of the regular public subsidies anymore for the power I send into the national grid." There was no technical or logical grounds for that; it was just that all the ministry mentality by now was "if there's a way to put stones in the way of renewables, the default is to do that."

Frankly, and I'm sorry to sound rude about this, you need to stop using a country as an argument for which you clearly have no idea what the political & societal conditions are. Like I said in my first reply: find better arguments.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A device that's 15% efficient is inherently more wasteful than a device that's 100% efficient, right? Therefore we're wasting something . That thing isn't input fuel, it's the materials used to build the device, and manage its lifecycle. That doesn't mean it's free - it just means we're considering different inputs. Total efficiency here is the sum of all inputs over outputs. For solar panels that's land use, that's…

A nuclear plant that is 100% efficient would be better than the current ~40% units but it is thermodynamically impossible. Thanks Carnot. You are confusing operating/marginal efficiency with lifetime efficiency. Think about a power plant as a series of payments. You have one big up front payment to build the thing and a series of smaller payments to buy fuel and run it. For solar, those smaller payments are zero. The…

> The marginal cost of rooftop solar is zero. Nothing is wasted. Really!

No, it isn't. There's literally materials consumed to build the solar panels, and a 0.4-0.8 deaths per TWh generated. To your own point a 1-2 year recovery period on panels that last 20 is 5-10% loss in energy off the mark. We don't really have a recycling plan, but we better get one, because solar generates a ton of waste materials. To power the entire United States, we'd need 20,000 square miles of solar panel - the entire landmass of West Virginia. Replaced every 20 years, we'd need almost 100,000 square miles of solar panel in my lifetime. That's the entire surface area of Colorado.

But that's ok because I'm not arguing against rooftop solar lol. I never was. That doesn't change the fact they're not particularly efficient, and there's a lot of room to improve. I was arguing in favor of nuclear, which, with seawater extraction, can be completely renewable.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is some bad reasoning. Solar efficiency is very different from say engine efficiency. A very efficient combustion engine is 35% efficient meaning it wastes 65% of the energy in the input fuel. Solar panels don’t waste sunlight and have no input costs. Rooftop solar turns 20% of something that would have been 100% wasted into high grade energy. A very efficient coal power plant is 45% efficient before transmissio…

>Solar efficiency is very different from say engine efficiency. A very efficient combustion engine is 35% efficient meaning it wastes 65% of the energy in the input fuel. Solar panels don’t waste sunlight and have no input costs. They're exactly the same kinds of waste. A 35% efficient IC engine wastes 65% of the energy in the fuel heating itself up. A 20% efficient photovoltaic cell wastes 80% of the energy in the l…

This argument only stood if the fuel for the IC engine were raining from heaven for free and would go 100% to waste if not burned, and if the combustion process itself produced no other waste than heat, both of which are obviously not true.

You have to consider /all/ inputs and outputs for any honest assessment of efficiency.

Yes, I am aware solar cells need to be manufactured, producing waste in the process. Still, the same applies for all alternatives, neither fossil nor nuclear plants grow on trees.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#256
post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are 100% in agreement that societies subsidies of fossil generation far outstrip anything else. My question was about your claim that nuclear has the lowest subsidy of any generator. > It is extremely unlikely that a nuclear accident will ever exceed these damages. I mean, the Fukushima cleanup (~$500B) is costing about three orders of magnitude above the liability ceiling ($450M) of the private insurance componen…

First of all, these numbers for the Fukushima cleanup don't make sense. 500B is the annual budget of medicare , or roughly the market cap of a FAANG. Your source appears to be wikipedia, so I looked into it, and their figure is from a scientific american article in which the Japanese government is quoted as saying 15 billion USD for the cleanup and 60 billion USD for relocation damages. Quite a lot of money, but defi…

Honestly curious about how you come to the conclusion that the risk of hydro is that much bigger than nuclear. One would assume that this is a pure engineering problem and therefore "mitigated many times over" just as well as in nuclear?

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#257

The cost per kWh of solar and wind is a third of natural gas and nuclear. It's not even close. Filling the gaps left by intermittent production with storage is rapidly decreasing in costs, and will soon be low enough that Solar/Wind/Storage will outcompete Natural Gas or nuclear 95% of the time. There is probably a small role for other sources in filling capacity gaps during uncommon weather events (i.e. natural gas…

Storage is a big, unsolved problem. As a quantitative resource on that I can recommend "Sustainable Energy: Without The Hot Air" by the great (and unfortunately recently deceased) David MacKay [1], it's available for free. For a large country like the UK or Germany you need to increase electricity production with a slew rate of 6-8 GW/h in the morning, and decrease it with the same rate in the evening. Currently the…

It is certainly an unsolved problem but there are nice ideas floating around. I don't know about feasibility or scalability but some suggest to just elevate land with fluid pressure or they suggested air filled tanks that are drawn to the bottom of seas so that energy is generated from buoyancy. That latter approach allegedly can be scaled to multiple GWh.

Sure, you need a deep see and installation is difficult but the latter approach has the advantage of not needing pumps, which are usually maintenance heavy.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#258
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Making solar and wind consistent with various kinds of storage is likely going to be more economical than producing said energy with nuclear power plants. As for comparison to natural gas and such, CO2 taxes will be increased until those are phased out. Still economical? Taxes will be raised until they aren't. We have to leave most of the carbon in the ground.

Economical is one thing, but what about sustainability? Isn't nuclear more sustainable in that it produces less overall waste?

Nuclear does create waste and that problem is not solved contrary to popular belief.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So what is? Cost. It's the reason few nuclear plants are being built. No other reason is needed.

I'm not buying that all the solar panels, batteries, and grid infrastructure will produce little waste. Do you have any references to studies this or are you just going by gut feeling?

Last year we had the first ever permanent storage open. If it really opened, perhaps it was delayed again. Because storing nuclear waste long term is not a solved problem aside from the fact that uranium isn't endless either. Deconstructed nuclear plants also need to be cleaned up.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Storage is a big, unsolved problem. As a quantitative resource on that I can recommend "Sustainable Energy: Without The Hot Air" by the great (and unfortunately recently deceased) David MacKay [1], it's available for free. For a large country like the UK or Germany you need to increase electricity production with a slew rate of 6-8 GW/h in the morning, and decrease it with the same rate in the evening. Currently the…

It is certainly an unsolved problem but there are nice ideas floating around. I don't know about feasibility or scalability but some suggest to just elevate land with fluid pressure or they suggested air filled tanks that are drawn to the bottom of seas so that energy is generated from buoyancy. That latter approach allegedly can be scaled to multiple GWh. Sure, you need a deep see and installation is difficult but t…

Where can I read more about the air filled tanks being “scaled to multiple GWh”?
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