US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis • Hacker News Board

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#251

Post by anm89 » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 7:53 PM UTC

nostromo wrote: post #27

The US government has completely lost the ability to act strategically. Biden is currently in Saudi Arabia begging for more oil production, meanwhile he's blocking measures to increase North American oil production. So, instead of fixing our own problem with inflation, we're asking one of the worst regimes on Earth for help and enriching Russia with higher prices simultaneously. Even if you support greener energy, li…

There's an amazing essay on this: https://archive.ph/D9YWr

It feels bad to us to have these ridiculous politicians who spend 95% of their time on theatrical in fighting as the US has for the last ~15 years but in terms of first order effects, it doesn't really matter. Like the risk of something like a kinetic civil war is still roughly zero in the US.

But the problem is, no one actually believes that there is any need to do things like have a cohesive foreign policy or actually administer the government, people view the job of the politicians as to just repetitively engage in the kabuki theatre of dunking on the other team over over and again.

Which was fine when the world was basically peaceful and we could just lord over everyone with our massive military and totally dominant currency which were built up in the previous era. The problem is that this system is going to fail spectacularly when there are actual complicated geo political issues to deal with and I think we are in the early stages of witnessing right now.

Someone else made the observation that we are effectively trying to deal with this problem but cancelling Putin over twitter, because canceling people on twitter is one of the primary modes of governance in the US right now. That may sound hyperbolic but I think it's actually pretty accurate, a lot of the sanctions on Russia were companies self sanctioning after getting attacked on twitter.

It turns out saying mean things on twitter is not particularly effective against tanks and artillery.

Anyway, interesting times.

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#252

Post by 88840-8855 » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 7:55 PM UTC

jltsiren wrote: post #226

88840-8855 wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am sorry, but thinking that Russia will invade the Nordics is dumb. Ukraine made sense, but the Nordics.. that is ridiculous. People will not carry this ideological politics as soon as they will feel the pressure over a longer period. Sanctions will go, mark my words.

The real issue is that the invasion of Ukraine doesn't make sense either. Russia expected a quick victorious "special operation", where the troops go in and the Ukrainian regime collapses with minimal fighting. Those expectations had no basis in reality, and Russia ended up in a major war it didn't want and was not prepared for. If the current Russian regime can start a war based on gross misjudgment, they can do it…

This is simply wrong as you dont take history and dont take future into account.

History: brzezinski sums it up well. Russia has some weird imperialist interest in Ukraine. They have ZERO historical interests in the Nordics.

Future: Finishing this war will take how long? Active conflict 1 year give or take + licking wounds 3 year + restoring economy and finding your way in the new world order 5 years + getting ready for your theoretical war against the Nordics 10 years (this is the time Russia took to get ready for this one). In total: 19 years. How old is Putin again?

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#253

Post by tomp » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 7:55 PM UTC

snemvalts wrote: post #156

dxhdr wrote: post #62

Meanwhile RUB to USD is at its highest in nearly 5 years. Cutting Russia off from SWIFT has only strengthened their ties to India and China. Russia is still invading Ukraine, and now we're dealing with soaring food and energy prices at home. At some point you have to consider whether this level of diplomatic incompetence is intentional.

> Meanwhile RUB to USD is at its highest in nearly 5 years Is that meant to demonstrate economic strength? * Russians have massive amount of brain drain. Most of tech employees have left, leaving only people extracting oil, people who turn it into fertilizer and gasoline and supporting roles. * They can't build military tech because of sanctions. Starting to use 1950s and 1960s tanks. * They've privatized and violate…

> Russians have massive amount of brain drain. Most of tech employees have left

I doubt this will continue.

The West has clearly demonstrated that their sanction and Russo-phobia will target not just politicians and oligarch, but normal people as well. Students being expelled, employees and artists fired, hospitals not treating them, etc.

Ordinary Russians aren't safe/welcome in the West, and they know it. Going home is their only choice (or praying that Russia collapses soon and Russo-phobia ends... sounds like a gamble).

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#254

Post by nemo44x » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 7:56 PM UTC

AzzieElbab wrote: post #244

nemo44x wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't really matter now. Russia is about to reclaim the Eastern lands it wanted and then we'll hear about "negotiated cease fire" and the war will be over and a pointless waste of lives will have occurred as well as trillions in economic damages. Russia literally had a 0% chance of losing this thing in the end. Ukraine did well to defend early and Russia certainly mismanaged the strategy. Going at the mainland w…

why do you assume Russia wanted only the Eastern lands? Putin said he wanted all of Ukraine. The invasion started with attempt to take Kyiv. Why level Kharkiv if all you want is Donbas?

I think it was strategic to end the war quickly. They knew if they invaded the East it would be a drawn out thing. So they went for the head shot right away and hoped they could pressure a negotiation. But to their credit, Ukraine stood up to it and the Russian execution of their plan was poor. So they've since abandoned that strategy and have now settled for plan-b, which they will win eventually.

It's time to stop losing lives and to try diplomacy.

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#255

Post by themitigating » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 7:57 PM UTC

mc32 wrote: post #250

themitigating wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So "do this or we'll invade"? Why does it matter if a NATO country is on the border anyway? In the age of ICBMs, stealth bombers, and drones is the real concern that some large NATO force would march over the border for a land invasion of Russia?

Isn't it much the same as VietNam, don't help the NVA or we'll help them split and take over NV (though it worked out the other way around)?

Whataboutism

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#256

Post by hdjjhhvvhga » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 7:57 PM UTC

dxhdr wrote: post #62

Meanwhile RUB to USD is at its highest in nearly 5 years. Cutting Russia off from SWIFT has only strengthened their ties to India and China. Russia is still invading Ukraine, and now we're dealing with soaring food and energy prices at home. At some point you have to consider whether this level of diplomatic incompetence is intentional.

The problem is, if you decide to give up and sacrifice Ukrainians on the altar, there is no guarantee Russia will stop at Ukrainian borders. And several Russian politicians, including Putin himself, suggested otherwise, arguing it's just taking back what's theirs. This basically means invading several other European countries - obviously not now, but at some point in the future.

So yes, you could turn a blind eye on Russian soldiers murdering people, stealing, raping, and so on, but it would be naive to think it will eliminate the problem: it will make it worse in the long term.

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#257

Post by jacobolus » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 7:58 PM UTC

lawxls wrote: post #233

snemvalts wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Meanwhile RUB to USD is at its highest in nearly 5 years Is that meant to demonstrate economic strength? * Russians have massive amount of brain drain. Most of tech employees have left, leaving only people extracting oil, people who turn it into fertilizer and gasoline and supporting roles. * They can't build military tech because of sanctions. Starting to use 1950s and 1960s tanks. * They've privatized and violate…

* Those who left have already returned, my coworkers never left, nor will I in near future. * Electronics can be imported via China and Kazakhstan. Thousands of kilometers of line of contact, plenty of T62's in good condition, why not give them to separatists? It is not as if Ukraine has anything better to offer. Cruise, ballistic missiles on the conveyor and in the air. Every day and night. * So? You are not plannin…

> It is not as if Ukraine has anything better to offer.

They have 260+ captured Russian tanks, for one thing. Ukraine has asked supporting countries to instead send howitzers, anti-air guns/missiles, and multiple-launch rockets. By the end of this war Ukraine might end up with the largest tank army in Europe. https://oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenti...

By most reports Ukraine (and Russia for that matter) are both much more limited by supply of trained tank crew than lack of physical tanks. Hundreds of Russian tanks requiring 3 crew members were already being driven by crews of 2 (in some cases untrained), and therefore combat ineffective right from the start.

Russia has lost an estimated 1000+ tanks in 3 months of war, and now has all but stopped doing maneuver operations, whether because they are scared to lose more or have run out of supply. From what I understand Russia’s tank production has entirely stopped for lack of microchips and other components.

> Cruise, ballistic missiles on the conveyor and in the air. Every day and night.

The rate of Russian use of long-distance missiles dropped off dramatically after the first couple months of the war. They wasted their missiles blowing up hundreds or thousands of militarily irrelevant civilian targets (apartment buildings, hospitals, schools, etc.). External experts don’t have perfect knowledge of Russian supplies, but the most plausible inference is that the Russian military is running out of whatever stores they were willing to use here. (Presumably there is still some reserve, but missiles getting used are not being obviously replaced.)

What the Russian military does have a lot of compared to Ukraine is artillery and artillery ammo, and unguided rocket launchers. Pretty much all of the stockpiled 152 mm (Soviet caliber) artillery ammo in Europe was already sent to Ukraine and Ukraine has almost run through it all, but Ukraine doesn’t yet have enough 155 mm (NATO caliber) howitzers to replace the 152 mm artillery that is out of ammo. Hopefully they will get hundreds more NATO howitzers in the coming weeks and months.

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#258

Post by mc32 » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 7:58 PM UTC

themitigating wrote: post #255

mc32 wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't it much the same as VietNam, don't help the NVA or we'll help them split and take over NV (though it worked out the other way around)?

Whataboutism

Nope. It's just acknowledging how the world works (realpolitik --despite what anyone would love to think is a principled approach)

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#259

Post by tut-urut-utut » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 7:59 PM UTC

gambiting wrote: post #91

cpursley wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're getting downvoted by Americans with big fat paychecks in the Bay Area and other coastal cities on the energy self-sufficient North American content. Like it or not, Europe runs on Russian gas/oil/grain for the time being. The current crop of EU officials are probably not evil, but they are incredibly incompetent. By any object measure, the sanctions have filled the Russian Government's coffers and made Europe…

I downvoted them and I'm Polish - I see Ukrainian people on our streets every day, I hear their stories and their suffering all the time, my family is housing several refugees already. The stuff that Russia is doing to that country is making my blood boil. If anything, I'm incredibly upset that EU is not doing more to tighten the screw on Russia. If we are unwilling to send our militaries to fight Russia in Ukraine,…

Then let's agree that we don't agree. And if we can't find a common interest, let's just split the EU.

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#260

Post by gardenfelder » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 8:00 PM UTC

It seems to me that there is another concern entailed by this topic: climate change, and along this dimension: the use of fertilizers in the context of farming methods which release, instead of capture, carbon. What's emerging in that space is regenerative agriculture, aka no-till agriculture. Perhaps it's the case that the fertilizer in play is not really necessary?