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Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

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Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#251

Post by the-dude »

misja111 wrote: post #99
gambiting wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev And when those American soldiers are killed by Russian missiles, do you then declare full on war on Russia, and we basically all die? Because like....there is no other good option out of this you know. By placing American(or NATO) troops and assets in the harms way, you need to be prepared for what you are going to do if those…

> And when those American soldiers are killed by Russian missiles, do you then declare full on war on Russia You are assuming here that Russia would be willing to cause a World War by attacking those American soldiers. > as a Pole the risk of actually being involved in military operations is making me extremely uncomfortable right now. But the alternative, to let Russia have Ukraine, will become very uncomfortable in…

The analogy of the invasion of Iraq ( Shock & Awe ) and Blitzkrieg are striking too. What is your point?

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#253

Post by neuronic »

We stopped Nord Stream 2 in Germany, finally. The former GDR state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern was obviously hoping for much needed jobs and taxes, but we stopped it now.

It was always wrong to accept this pipeline, it was purely political.

Now I also hope the US will stop all oil imports from Russia as well if not already done so.

We need to cut off Russia from every single international penny and influence.

In Germany, we can substitute the gas pipeline with LNG terminals accepting gas from various countries, including the US. At least until we further increase energy independence. Only bureaucracy and politics are in the way. Get them out of the way.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#254

Post by sillysaurusx »

I'm trying to help people evacuate from Ukraine. If you know anyone who wants out, DM me:

Twitter thread: https://twitter.com/theshawwn/status/1496761074258952193

Telegram: https://t.me/theshawwn

Urgent: If you know anyone near Kiev who can drive two elderly people plus one child to Romania, please contact me ASAP. (Note: Male drivers need to be under 18 or over 55, since they'll likely be stopped by law enforcement along the way.)

I know this sounds straight out of a novel, but I'm just doing whatever I can to help people. (I guess it shouldn't feel surprising that a lot of people want to leave all of a sudden...)

I can help cover travel expenses, though I'm not sure the best way to send money.

If we pool our resources, our collective odds go way up.

The current plan is to cross into Romania via Karpatia Sanatorium: https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Kiev,+Kyiv+city,+Ukraine/Kar...

They might be willing to pick up one non-adult (55yo) along the way.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#255

Post by jollybean »

jacquesm wrote: post #214
jollybean wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would have changed the course but not the objective. The Kremlin apologists in American politics are really disturbing. Putin's objective is to re-integrate Ukraine into the 'Russian Empire', he's taking the 500-year view and so 'Nord Stream 2' is irrelevant. NATO acquiescence to his demands would have just changed maybe the nature of Putins' actions, or not but he would have continued. The big issue is obviously…

> In hindsight, I actually kind of blame the Germans a lot for this. Germany has been very successfully sucking in business and talent from the rest of Europe, building their economy while completely avoiding the 'responsibility' that comes along with that power. Partly military, but definitely geostrategic issues of security. The complete lack of historical awareness is impressive.

Lazy ad hominem with total lack of rhetoric or reason is 'impressive' by HN standards.

In the meantime, here are some more actual facts:

German/European dependence on Russian Energy [1]

'Foreign Policy' articulation of the problem, with specific reference to Germany, and their intransigence on supporting sanctions directly as a result of their energy policy [2]

Germany Energy Mix, 1990-2020 [3] which decisively illustrates that if Germany had continued it's Nuclear program - without even expanding it - it could be entirely independent of Russian (and other) imports.

Germany's continued disregard TO NATO agreements with respect to military spending [4] and some of the political causes.

All the while [5] Germany grows into EU's hegemon (due to favourable Euro policy, weak France, absent UK et. al.)

Here is exactly the argument that I am making in academic terms [6]

"There is no disputing Germany’s dominant economic role within the eurozone (EZ) and the broader European Union (EU). Its GDP represented 29 percent of total EZ GDP in 2016 and, as of 2015, it was the top intra-EU trade partner for 18 out of 28 countries ... for reasons it is largely responsible for, the growth of exports to the ROW has been growing faster. The German trade surplus, however, is larger with the ROW than it is with other EU nations.

Economic leadership in the world or in a region, however, entails responsibilities, especially in a world system of monetary production economies that compete with each other according to political and economic interests."

And it goes on to make the fairly obvious case.

[1] https://www.newstatesman.com/chart-of-the-day/2022/02/how-eu...

[2] https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/03/germany-energy-sanction...

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Germany#/medi...

[4] https://warontherocks.com/2018/07/the-real-roots-of-germanys...

[5] https://www.e-ir.info/2021/08/23/europes-hegemon-the-nature-...

[6] https://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_913.pdf

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#257

Post by CodeArtisan »

gambiting wrote: post #72
CodeArtisan wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 to "enforce peace". Same with Crimea in 2014. Then Luhansk and Donetsk a few days ago. Now the rest of Ukraine. Discussion with Putin is futile. When Russia started sending troops next to the Ukraine borders, NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev. It's too late now.

>> NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev And when those American soldiers are killed by Russian missiles, do you then declare full on war on Russia, and we basically all die? Because like....there is no other good option out of this you know. By placing American(or NATO) troops and assets in the harms way, you need to be prepared for what you are going to do if those…

I am not a native English speaker and may have badly expressed myself. I am not urging the "west" or "allieds" to intervene nor i am condemning them for not to. But if they were serious about stopping Putin, they would have sent troops weeks before the invasion. When Joseph Biden went everyday on television to warn that the invasion was imminent and that usa will not send troops but instead establish more economic sanctions, it was pretty clear to me that they already had accepted to abandon Ukraine to Russia.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#259

Post by mopsi »

creato wrote: post #193
mopsi wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And Russia would've been scared and retreated. Yes. Without sarcasm. This happened several times with Trump, who despite all his faults, was a master bullshitter and master at seeing through other bullshitters. A notable episode was an attack by Russian Wagner group on a small outpost held by 30-something US special forces soldiers guarding a gas plant in Syria. Signals intelligence was later able to capture a few…

You're omitting a critical detail: Russia denied that those forces were Russian, effectively green lighting the US response. That's not a useful "test". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham

Denying involvement is their modus operandi, which backfired in this case. They obviously didn't expect one of the worst humiliations in modern military history.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#260

Post by ayngg »

jl6 wrote: post #121

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus Russia’s exports are >50% oil and gas products. The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables.

This is happening because the west has no leverage and asymmetrical priorities. Russia -really- cares that Ukraine stays out of NATO, probably to the point where they would scorched earth the country before it joined, and the west only kinda cares about Ukraine comparatively, as demonstrated in 2014 and 2008. If they actually really care, sanctions don't mean much.

Makes me wonder why the west thought the third time would be the charm in this case. A big difference may be domestic politics in the west, things are pretty tenuous both socially and economically, which could benefit from this grandstanding far from home.

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