Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater • Hacker News Board

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#251

Post by plater » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 9:19 AM UTC

octopoc wrote: post #60

hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

If I may ask, what are your thoughts on BuildZoom? If I go through them can I be more certain about quality work? I have heard many horror stories of people who had houses built and the builders made terrible mistakes. The person having the house built had to micromanage them and kept finding bad mistakes, like "forgetting" to put insulation in walls before the drywall, putting a window in the wrong spot, or putting…

Someone I know who had their house built took pictures of the construction site every day.

That way, if an issue turned up later, he could prove by showing the pics that they forgot to do something or did it in the wrong way.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#252

Post by karolist » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 9:27 AM UTC

hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

I know a person who built his aerated concrete house working a day job over 3 years, he did 98% of the tasks himself and probably 95% of those alone whilst maintaining a full-time day job. He has a non-english blog with many pictures and process documentation and was a huge inspiration to me whilst I DIY'd my new 2 bdr apartment from this https://imgur.com/a/UXfmx0Y to this https://imgur.com/a/vGntuhJ in the span of 6 months and a day job doing everything myself (all the furniture, electricity, kitchen installation, etc etc). I have many pictures but never bothered to post them up. When you do things yourself you can take your time and do things like this https://imgur.com/a/8cd1iHO with the tiles, everyone said it's impossible to do this connection with a laminated floor but I figured it out and it's holding great (took me 4 evenings to make the cuts, pour out epoxy basin to "catch" the heights etc).

I guess my point is, if you're interested in DIY it's ... doable, YouTube can be a great help depending on your region. I'm an ISTP in the Myer-Briggs scale and don't get bored digging into little details as I assume many people on this site. 3 years in no failures in anything I've did, people who hired regularly posted cracked corners, even ceilings in the local facebook group.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#253

Post by blitzar » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 9:32 AM UTC

arthurcolle wrote: post #100

tayo42 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.

Stocks only go up

You misspelt Stonks.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#254

Post by wombat23 » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 9:32 AM UTC

tayo42 wrote: post #25

mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.

I've been wondering the same. Apparently, where I live (HCOL) people don't care about ever paying off the full amount, as long as the monthly installment is low. Regulations only require that you paid off 33% of the house value after 15 years.

You do need to start at 20% capitalization though, which at current prices means they need to own assets already (market risk), or have bonkers amounts of currency sitting around (inflation risk). I understand the FOMO some people must have.

I wonder if ultimately there is a cascade happening, where increased valuations lead previous owners to either take new mortgages, or sell their old house, and pay more for a new one. Which creates a cycle of ever increasing prices? I've never read anything though whether such an effect exists.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#255

Post by Bombthecat » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 9:33 AM UTC

imgabe wrote: post #217

Bombthecat wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? In germany they expect prices to go up until 2030 and then stagnate! Not go down! Stagnate!

Nobody has any idea what will happen in 9 years. That is too far away of a prediction to have any meaning.

Well.. You kinda can. Demand and supply, they basically say :until 2030 demand will be higher than supply. Germany is building way to slow and not enough.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#256

Post by CraigJPerry » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 9:34 AM UTC

gjvc wrote: post #246

lbriner wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is hard since even experienced and capable builders might still take you for a ride. In the UK, plumbers are notorious for not turning up to jobs and not even calling etc. Those that know what they are doing are also prone to inflate a quote to someone they think can afford it. The other problem in the UK is there is no formal registry for a "builder" as opposed to plumbers, electricians and even window fitters th…

> The other problem in the UK is there is no formal registry for a "builder" as opposed to plumbers, electricians and even window fitters that have to be registered. In the UK, electricians do not have to be registered.

I always understood electricians did have to be registered and qualified https://www.competentperson.co.uk/

But I don’t know for sure.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#257

Post by MrYellowP » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 9:37 AM UTC

mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

They don't need an excuse. Thanks to the idea of the Great Reset, everyone with enough money is trying to have a house they will eventually rent away, or live in it themselves.

There's zero reason for prices to go down. None. I've read that plenty of houses are being bought even above asking price, so cost of building isn't a real factor.

Sure, I'm not counting the crash where all the clueless dumb money will try to sell their houses.

When the bubble pops only the idiots will try to sell, and the smart money will grab whatever they can. ROI in terms of "old money" is irrelevant. What matters is getting rid of old money and investing it in something that brings in new money post-crash.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#258

Post by blitzar » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 9:39 AM UTC

cryptoquick wrote: post #235

> "Builders still have to clear their inventories of having purchased higher-priced lumber. It takes a while to clear the system," Lee said. "Yes, lumber prices from the mills came down dramatically over the summer, but that's unfortunately taken a while to reach the rest of the industry and consumers." > Lee said when it comes to new home construction, pricing is being complicated by ongoing pandemic-related supply…

I believe it. I am actually more worried about a deflationary spiral and an actual depression when the covid punch bowl gets taken away than moon growth for ever.

Things were shitty before covid happened, and many were expecting a recesion in 2020 before covid existed, markets siezed up late q3 19, and needed help then. The world has since been living on vast quantities of high grade heroin dished out all over the world, quite rightly by various central banks.

Only once the covid tide goes out we will see who has been swimming naked.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#259

Post by dagw » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 9:39 AM UTC

CraigJPerry wrote: post #256

gjvc wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The other problem in the UK is there is no formal registry for a "builder" as opposed to plumbers, electricians and even window fitters that have to be registered. In the UK, electricians do not have to be registered.

I always understood electricians did have to be registered and qualified https://www.competentperson.co.uk/ But I don’t know for sure.

My understanding is that anybody can do any type of electrical work (in homes), but certain type of electrical work needs to be certified. If your electrician isn't certified then a third party certifier has to certify the work after completion.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#260

Post by cerved » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 9:42 AM UTC

zthrowaway wrote: post #232

tayo42 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.

As someone with two realtors in my family, my understanding is most people are living beyond their means and don’t actually have the money. But the rates are low and loans are being handed out like hot cakes. People are carelessly and knowingly going into negative equity right now and will have a big wake up call once this market stabilizes, they’re going to be stuck for quite some time. Some of these people are even…

it worked out so great last time..