Earlier quoted context omitted.
And the first cars didn't have seatbelts. It's fine, these are not complicated problems, and they are much easier to spot and fix than most problems in software engineering at scale. Don't be fooled by the negative PR campaigns and clickbait, there's no reason to be skeptical about ML in general because of this. Also, Tay attempted to solve a much harder problem than image classification. It's hard to build a safe hy…
Forgive me, because I’m not an expert in ML. If this is an easy problem to solve why is it still a problem years after it’s so widespread that msm both knows about it and have written continual investigative journalism about it? It’s clearly not cutting edge anymore once it gets to that point and yet it’s still a problem. Why?
Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020)
251–260 of 285 posts
Re: Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020)
#252Earlier quoted context omitted.
> John von Neumann wrote an essay on the topic titled The computer and the brain I have to be honest, I would take any such comparison from the 1950's with a huge pinch of salt. I think perceptions about how "dumb" an individual neuron is as a processing unit have shifted quite a bit since then. > Also, I don’t think that comparing the training of a neural network to the brain is fair from an energy usage point of vi…
I only mentioned that essay because I think the fundamental vision of it is still correct — in serial computations silicone beats “meat” hands down. And that is in both power efficiency and performance. The fundamental difference between our current approach and biological brains is just as much a hardware one as it is theoretical. CPUs and GPUs are simply not best fit for this sort of usage — a “core” of them is way…
I just don't think this is a meaningful comparison, and I'm not convinced it's evidence of the "limitations" of biological computation.
Silicone beats biology in doing binary computation because they're a single-purpose machine built for this task. But a brain is capable of serving as a control system to operate millions of muscle fibers in parallel to navigate the body smoothly in unpredictable 3D space, while at the same time modulating communication to find the right way to express thoughts and advance interests in complex and uncertain social hierarchies, while at the same forming opinions about pop-culture, composing sonnets, falling in love and contemplating death.
For me to buy the argument that ANN's can be more efficient than biology, you'd have to show me a computer which can do all of that using less resources than the human brain. Currently we have an assembly line for math problems.
> a “core” of them is way too powerful for what a single neuron can do
I just think you're vastly under-counting the complexity of what happens inside a single neuron. At every synapse, there's a complex interplay of chemistry, physics and biology which constitutes the processing of the neurotransmitter signal from the presynaptic neuron. To simulate a single neuron accurately, we actually need all the resources of a very powerful computer.
So it may be the case that we can boil down intelligence to some kind of process which can be printed in silicon. But I think it's also entirely likely that the extreme parallelism (vast orders of magnitude greater than the widest GPU) of the brain is required for the kind of general intelligence that humans express, and the "slowness" of biological computation is a necessary trade-off for the flexibility we enjoy. If that's the case, it's going to be very hard for a serial computer to emulate intelligence.
Re: Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020)
#253What baffles me is the number of humans who think they are in the personal possession of some super special sacred form of magical and unexplainable intelligence. "AI is just stats" yes, indeed, but so is human intelligence. In many ways, AI from 2010 was already better than human intelligence. Three remarks: - The task many people seem to be benchmarking against is not just a measure of general intelligence, but a m…
"We have a very selective memory indeed. We have absolutely terrible judgment, are super irrational, and pretty reliably make decisions that are against our own interests, " This is a really bad argument - human intelligence is not highly rational, but it is deeply nuanced, using social cues, emotions, instincts and a miriad of other things. Computers can never be anti-knowledge because they lack the free will and so…
These things aren’t magical properties of a “higher” intelligence, they’re phenomena that emerge from structure. Give a robot a hindbrain and it will pick up on that type of things.
Re: Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020)
#254Earlier quoted context omitted.
I believe we do understand, broadly speaking, thinking and consciousness. There remains a lot more to learn, as in anything in science... IMO the main difficulty is that humans have terrible self-awareness or self-insight. We want to believe we're special, we want to believe we're intelligent, we want to believe we're different than machines. We're in denial about that. Our brains aren't any more special than compute…
Are you kidding? Go read Hegel's phenomonology of mind and get back to me on that
My comment is loosely based on a general appreciation of textbook-level neuroanatomy and recent advances in AI/comp sci.
Re: Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020)
#255Earlier quoted context omitted.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AnimatLab We totally do emulate organisms on that scale. The real challenge is simulating the sensory inputs and the feedback loop between the outputs, the environment as the body acts, then new inputs. Disembodied simulations of nerual networks don't work. They are part of a body, an environment, and all the feedback loops that come with it. It sounds like you really just want to see…
You don't need sensors, you just need a virtual room. > We totally do emulate organisms on that scale. The There is no evidence those emulations actually emulates those organisms. They just built a neural net in the same structure and assumes the cells doesn't matter. But cells are really smart and can navigate environments on their own, they are intelligent beings in their own right, and building a flea using a thou…
While technically true, I actually think this is way more difficult than it sounds, bordering on practical impossibility.
I think the other commenter was making a really important point. The simulated environment would need to be incredibly rich, to a point as to almost defy imagination.
Consider what happens to a human mind when confined in a box (prison) with limited opportunities for stimulation. There’s a room, a gym, other people with which to socialize, food, walls, an outdoors enclosure... And yet someone who spends their entire life in this type of environment will certainly be facing serious neurodevelopmental issues.
For human/mammal order of AI, I would even argue that simulating adequate inputs might actually be a more difficult problem than building the AI that responds to them!
Re: Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020)
#256We are paying for the incredible bamboozle that is the phrase "Machine Learning." If we used computerized statistical inference instead and the phrase "machine learning" did not exist the attitude to people from investors to regulators, from customers, vendors, doom sayers and boosters alike would be vastly better taken as whole. Nearly everyone here knows mostly when seeing AI written or hearing it that it's a total…
The term "machine learning" fits the field, but the venn diagram of "what those two words could mean in english" versus "what the term means in the field" is a huge circle enclosing a tiny subset.
It's way too broad, and a term that naturally lent itself to a far more narrow interpretation by people first finding it wouldn't have this problem.
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It's fascinating to me, as someone that works with (rudimentary, non-ML) game AI, that - until recently, nobody really even tried doing game AIs that even "trained their heuristics". Like, I get how AIs couldn't form a general plan or any of that, but I was shocked, as an adult, to learn that i.e. FPS AIs were too dumb to even take "guesstimate" values like how much they needed to lead a shot (i.e. honing ballistics calculations), and at least train the aiming value for that based on inputs and success/failure criterion. As a kid, the obviousness of the idea, and triviality of how much effort it ought to take (surely a couple of hours, tops?) had me convinced that of course everybody was doing that.
Once I became an adult, I learned the bitter truth that even banally simple ideas are shockingly difficult to put into practice. The devil's in the details.
Re: Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020)
#257This article is mostly a straw man, while still containing some valid ML criticism. I am a ML s(c|k)eptic too, in that popular conceptions of what ML is currently overpromise, often don't even understand what ML actually is, and are often just some layperson's imagination about what "artificial intelligence" might do. This article is the opposite. He's treating ML as basically a simple supervised architecture that do…
A ML model and most of what we currently call AI, is a statistical model. It predicts things, and in the process of "training" this model we can also learn about the world it interacts with.
Anyone who has ever spend any amount of time on the issue knows that the idea of "generalizing" or "adapting"in ML corresponds directly to causal inference. This is not some secret to be uncovered by every other pundit, it's a direct consequence of ML models being.. statistical models. If our AI can understand when statistical relationships hold and when they do not, then it is inferring causality from data. Currently, we are dealing with ML algorithms adapting or generalizing: learning which regularities to "trust" and which to "discard" when the "DGP" changes. This sounds nebulous and difficult, but that's only the case because the models are complex.
Nevertheless, the underlying statistical problem is old. Ancient. Talked to death in every scientific field that tries to do an experiment, to infer some causal parameter from observational data, or construct counterfactuals to guide policy. Similarly, the divide between quantitative and qualitative approaches, are decades (if not centuries) old.
These problems are so well understood that we can state very precisely what needs to happen to make our inference causal. The catch is, that first it depends on the DGP and our model thereof, and further that none of these things can be proven to be true in the same framework. Whether the DGP is as we need it to be, or whether the model identifies what we want, is something we can be confident about given a set of assumptions, but it is not something we can know to be true. And guess what, if the model is complex, then so is thinking about its inferential capabilities.
The discussion seems tired, because it is. It's not a deep philosophical issue. It's a practical one. That doesn't imply there is a good solution to it either, but the basic issue hasn't changed for a long time. Maybe we are not trying to predict a treatment's effect on some randomly selected population, maybe we are instead trying to land a plane under conditions we can barely foresee. But what needs to happen for these two predictions to be unbiased, consistent, low variance, whatever... has not changed.
Researchers are frustrated with these article, because pundit after pundit claims to uncover some general problem with AI or ML in face of reality. But it is not about AI. It's about statistics, and we all want to say: "Yes, we know. Now what?"
Re: Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020)
#258Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's a good point, but amount of training data these neural networks take doesn't seem compatible to me. If I read all day everyday from the moment I was born until now, I couldn't have read 45 terabytes of text.
Don't forget the training that you did before you were born through evolution. It wasn't text but was a bunch of transferrable skills that help us understand text.
I guess if we want to reduce the comparison to something vague like "the human brain and neural networks both developed over many iterations," I could agree with that, but that doesn't seem very interesting.
If the two were actually comparable, it would look more like: 1. Use NN (or GP) to develop set of hyper parameters 2. Give said HP to neural nets that, thanks to the HP, can be trained on a very limited said of data.
I am not aware of any successes with methods like these.
Re: Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020)
#259Earlier quoted context omitted.
Easy to fix technically , but first the issue must be recognized and demonstrated, then the delicate process of negotiating the social and economic realities in which the technology operates. And that's the problem with ML in general: its failure to recognize the implicit biases in choice of dataset and training and the resulting problems, of which Microsoft racist chatbot Tay[1] is merely the most blatantly ludicrou…
And the first cars didn't have seatbelts. It's fine, these are not complicated problems, and they are much easier to spot and fix than most problems in software engineering at scale. Don't be fooled by the negative PR campaigns and clickbait, there's no reason to be skeptical about ML in general because of this. Also, Tay attempted to solve a much harder problem than image classification. It's hard to build a safe hy…
Re: Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020)
#260Earlier quoted context omitted.
And the first cars didn't have seatbelts. It's fine, these are not complicated problems, and they are much easier to spot and fix than most problems in software engineering at scale. Don't be fooled by the negative PR campaigns and clickbait, there's no reason to be skeptical about ML in general because of this. Also, Tay attempted to solve a much harder problem than image classification. It's hard to build a safe hy…
Forgive me, because I’m not an expert in ML. If this is an easy problem to solve why is it still a problem years after it’s so widespread that msm both knows about it and have written continual investigative journalism about it? It’s clearly not cutting edge anymore once it gets to that point and yet it’s still a problem. Why?
No doubt there are still plenty of other issues with ML that haven't (yet) made it to popular attention, and the people employing it aren't making decisions based on social value or common good, but simply invoking free markets and capitalism as their guiding philosophies.