This is supposed to be transparent, right? so who's selling?
Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip
251–260 of 688 posts
Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip
#252I used to be excited to see crypto currency related threads on HN's front page, bc I would be excited to see the technical discussion about he merits and criticisms of the technology. Nowadays, I am just disappointed when the discourse devolves into politics, cultism (on both sides), and misinformation.
Where could I go to see discussions about just the technology?
Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip
#253Earlier quoted context omitted.
> If $SPY dropped 40% we'd all call it a crash. This isn't that different If $SPY was 40% up since last month, would that be normal? ETH is still currently higher than its value from April 19th. Cryptocurrency market is extremely volatile. This isn't that far from normal.
SPY is up 50% since 2019 (pre covid crash). As someone partially invested in index ETFs, this worries me. Index funds aren't supposed to be nitro, they are supposed to be slow and plodding, and 10% annual is supposed to be huge. I think major indices should be nice, slow, inertial gains from ~6-7% annual, tops. Why? When at any point as an engineer or a scientist have you observed large exponential growth to be susta…
Considering how much the money supply was increased, and the pending inflationary effects, the 50% up creates a "looks good on paper" sentiment the Fed is eyeing for to keep the economy moving: people spending money, taking on debt, etc. But the real increase (adjusted for inflation) will be less impressive. The on-paper increases pop sentiments, though, which is exactly what's needed in a potential economic crisis spawned by a pandemic.
Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip
#254Earlier quoted context omitted.
Thank you for the disinterested take! It's refreshing to see this as a top comment when so often I see "Crypto makes me sick" which offers zero information and doesn't belong on HN. A few points to the repetitive comments I keep seeing: 1. Bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme. Various cryptocurrencies operate in such a manner, but Bitcoin and Ethereum have value propositions: settlement and programmable money respectively.…
> I do not understand how every time cryptocurrency comes up armchair HN users come along and comment when they, very apparently, have almost no understanding of the topic This in itself is a meme - "All criticism is ignorance!" Bitcoin is not a ponzi or a pyramid scheme, that's true, but it has aspects of both, with its declining emission and stacked rewards for early adopters. And Bitcoin is for settlement now is i…
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Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip
#255Earlier quoted context omitted.
Thank you for the disinterested take! It's refreshing to see this as a top comment when so often I see "Crypto makes me sick" which offers zero information and doesn't belong on HN. A few points to the repetitive comments I keep seeing: 1. Bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme. Various cryptocurrencies operate in such a manner, but Bitcoin and Ethereum have value propositions: settlement and programmable money respectively.…
> I do not understand how every time cryptocurrency comes up armchair HN users come along and comment when they, very apparently, have almost no understanding of the topic This in itself is a meme - "All criticism is ignorance!" Bitcoin is not a ponzi or a pyramid scheme, that's true, but it has aspects of both, with its declining emission and stacked rewards for early adopters. And Bitcoin is for settlement now is i…
> The truth is that bitcoin is an instrument of speculation. Little else
Right now it is because it's experiencing tremendous growth. When it becomes less volatile it may yet become more currency-like.
Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip
#256Earlier quoted context omitted.
> If $SPY dropped 40% we'd all call it a crash. This isn't that different If $SPY was 40% up since last month, would that be normal? ETH is still currently higher than its value from April 19th. Cryptocurrency market is extremely volatile. This isn't that far from normal.
In terms of risk-adjusted returns, Bitcoin worse than index funds. You can get smoother returns using 3x ETFs like TQQQ and TECL compared to bitcoin and about the same absolute returns. Nasdaq 100 has much better sharpe ratio compared to bitcoin. Same for FAAMG portfolio
When I google "Bitcoin Sharpe ratio," every article that comes up shows its ratio to be quite high.
Here's a chart comparing various assets' Sharpe ratios over time, always for the previous four years. Bitcoin's is at top of the chart, staying over 2 and sometimes over 3: http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-risk-adjusted-return/
The lowest I've found is in this article, calculating over the past five years a Sharpe ratio of 1.6: https://www.forbes.com/sites/baldwin/2021/03/02/how-bitcoin-...
According to this, from 2007 to 2021 the Sharpe ratio of the Nasdaq 100 was 0.97: https://backtest.curvo.eu/portfolio/nasdaq-100--NoIgcghgzgJh...
And this gives a FAANG portfolio Sharpe ratio of 1.25: https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/3-ways-to-evaluate-the...
In terms of absolute returns, TQQQ has done well but not so well as Bitcoin. Since 2016 TQQQ has done 12X, compared to Bitcoin's 85X. Since April 2013 (as far back as Coingecko goes) TQQQ has gone up 37X, compared to a Bitcoin's 272X.
As a bonus, Bitcoin has a long-term correlation with the S&P500 of only 0.01, according to the Forbes article linked above.
Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip
#257Earlier quoted context omitted.
I see you often comment on Bitcoin negatively, curious why?
It's a substantially-manipulated negative-sum distributed Ponzi scheme. The most blatant example of a naked emperor I've seen in my lifetime. And it consumes the energy of Argentina to achieve as much work as a Raspberry Pi.
Missed a couple of early opportunities to buy eh? Don't worry about, expending your energy is going to get you nothing. Even if it all implodes tomorrow all you can do is say "I told you so". And you may feel superior to others, but no one will care. And if it doesn't implode you are here expending energy unnecessarily, which, we have already gathered, is an activity that you don't appreciate.
Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip
#258BItocin has among the worst risk-adjusted returns of any investment. I would not touch it. NASDAQ 100 and or fang portfolio way better.
This is clearly false- Bitcoin had a return of 100000% in the last decade. It's completely irrelevant with those kinds of numbers what the "risk" was.
...Now, you may have a personal opinion that the next decade will not see similar returns, but that is a completely subjective assessment on your part, even if you try to pretend that you're being objective by using the phrase "risk-adjusted returns".
Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip
#259Earlier quoted context omitted.
Currencies are used to purchase things. If the purchasing power of 1 BTC changes dramatically, it matters.
You're assuming I care how much something costs in dollars.
This makes me wonder how you pay for basic living expenses like rent/mortgage, food, clothes, etc
Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip
#260Earlier quoted context omitted.
Thank you for the disinterested take! It's refreshing to see this as a top comment when so often I see "Crypto makes me sick" which offers zero information and doesn't belong on HN. A few points to the repetitive comments I keep seeing: 1. Bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme. Various cryptocurrencies operate in such a manner, but Bitcoin and Ethereum have value propositions: settlement and programmable money respectively.…
> I do not understand how every time cryptocurrency comes up armchair HN users come along and comment when they, very apparently, have almost no understanding of the topic This in itself is a meme - "All criticism is ignorance!" Bitcoin is not a ponzi or a pyramid scheme, that's true, but it has aspects of both, with its declining emission and stacked rewards for early adopters. And Bitcoin is for settlement now is i…
> The Nakamoto Scheme is an automated hybrid of a Ponzi scheme and a pyramid scheme which has, from the perspective of operating a criminal enterprise, the strengths of both and (currently) the weaknesses of neither.