Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution' • Hacker News Board

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#251

Post by f430 » Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 5:21 PM UTC

tablespoon wrote: post #160

It's also worth noting that it seems like Germans perceive the AstraZenica vaccine as second-rate, and were even skipping appointments in the hope of getting the Pfizer/BioNTech shot later. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/25/world/europe/germany-coro... : > Many people — including health workers — are skipping appointments or refusing to sign up for the AstraZeneca shot, which they fear is less effective than the Pfi…

I think the concerns are very valid about AZ and German's have a right to choose. Big point is that HN is largely an American forum so there will be a bias against AZ doubters.

Interesting that Twitter and Facebook also not labeling the concerns about AZ as "Fake News" so likely there is some merit to the claims against AZ.

I am also against taking AZ as well. If HN folks are confident it is fine go ahead. I will choose what I'm comfortable with and Germans or anybody else for that matter should have a say.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#252

Post by dahfizz » Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 5:22 PM UTC

amelius wrote: post #203

drcode wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A problem with bureaucracies is that they often care deeply if people die from an action they are responsible for, but are fine if there are massive deaths due to inaction.

The solution is simple though: politicians simply ask experts how many people die if they do X versus Y, and make sure it is recorded (e.g. by journalists) so they can refer to it later.

Even assuming this utilitarian viewpoint is the correct one, you're putting a lot of faith in the general population to trust the experts / journalists and to be un-emotional when examining the facts.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#253

Post by hef19898 » Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 5:23 PM UTC

neuronic wrote: post #238

hef19898 wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, in deed we have. As does France.

Historically interesting: In the Soviet GDR there was a 95%+ vaccination rate and people trust Russian/Soviet vaccine science (I am from the region). Introducing Sputnik V to Germany may boost vaccine acceptance in the East. The majority of the vocal deniers is localized around Munich btw, same with homeopathy advocates. Not sure why that is but I suspect 1888's medicine book by Eduard Bilz, which was extremely popul…

I never considered that angle. I wouldn't mind if Sputnik V would be certified in the EU as well. The more vaccines the better. And the faster we get out shit together here, the faster poorer countries can get their doses as well. Which was the EU plan anyway, at least initially.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#254

Post by lm28469 » Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 5:23 PM UTC

high_derivative wrote: post #11

giantandroids wrote: post #8

You do have to wonder if some of this is politically driven. Germany are losing hundreds of life's a day, while in the meantime the UK has administrated 23 million doses (not sure the ratio of those that were AstraZeneca) and not recorded a single fatality or adverse reaction and are seeing infection rates / deaths drop. I can understand caution under normal circumstances, but nothing is normal right now.

Same thought, I think this is part of political cover for the failing (in comparison) vaccination effort's in continental Europe. 'See, we were right not to vaccinate this fast' For the downvoters: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/15/eviden...

> We're too slow so we're going to ban half of our vaccine supply

Am I missing something, how's that supposed to help ?

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#255

Post by fasteddie31003 » Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 5:24 PM UTC

hatch_q wrote: post #240

fasteddie31003 wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the trolly problem. Pull the lever and kill one person. Don't pull the lever and kill 3 people. I'm a lever puller.

But the real risk here is that the lever will get stuck. Even if 1 person dies from vaccine - it can create huge, long-lasting case against vaccination, causing more people to choose not to vaccinate and eventually killing a lot more people. There must be no doubts with vaccines, 100% trust in them is essential.

Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the great.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#256

Post by qbasic_forever » Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 5:24 PM UTC

raducu wrote: post #190

fab1an wrote: post #133

Looks like this may be a bit more relevant than many of the snarky comments would suggest - the relevant German authority on this said that they have seen a unexpected increase in a specific type of blood clotting issue that usually is very rare: https://www.pei.de/DE/newsroom/hp-meldungen/2021/210315-voru...

I'm set to take the oxford d vaccine, but I could also take the pfizer vaccine. I've had elevated blood markers for clotting during covid-19, and now I hear of this. I'm thinking of taking 75 mg aspirin, before and after the vaccine. On the other hand, the issue is the patients have low platelet count and I understand that this is the way aspirin reduces blod clotting. So, do these patients have low platelet count be…

Talk to your doctor before making decisions. Taking aspirin right before a vaccine might not be a good idea as it can blunt your immune system response, but the whole point of a vaccine is to elicit a strong immune response that builds memory. I know acetaminophen is specifically mentioned as something not to take right before the COVID-19 vaccines (and afterwards, if you can deal with the immune response naturally).

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#257

Post by freewilly1040 » Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 5:25 PM UTC

libertine wrote: post #243

ArkanExplorer wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Surely more people will die from COVID than from blood clotting, due to this delay? Or perhaps not, given that 2020 deaths in Germany were 985,145, only 4.85% higher than 2019, and only 3.2% higher than 2018 (and so basically in line with what we would expect from an aging society). https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoel...

You're missing the point. This is an anomaly. It's not about the "oh it's worth the risk compared to COVID 19". If it's a side effect it wasn't spotted in the trials, why was that? It's not a side effect? It was a problem in production? What problem? Was is tampered with or was an accident? What failed in QA to let that batch come to the public? Was is a storage problem that compromised the batch quality? Was it whil…

No one is saying side effects should not be investigated. The question is whether the vaccine administration should be halted in the meantime, and that would be determined by the risk/reward of preventing covid deaths.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#258

Post by kitd » Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 5:26 PM UTC

lastofthemojito wrote: post #170

drcode wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A problem with bureaucracies is that they often care deeply if people die from an action they are responsible for, but are fine if there are massive deaths due to inaction.

Feels similar to government IT risk aversion that I've seen. Folks are afraid to approve a new piece of software, or a new version, or a hotfix or whatever, because what if it goes awry and causes problems? But little weight seems to be put on "what if we keep running the same version we've been running for years and now that there's a known vulnerability, someone exploits it?".

"Better the devil you know" etc etc

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#259

Post by colechristensen » Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 5:26 PM UTC

hef19898 wrote: post #237

colechristensen wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US, ~160,000 people over the age of 85 have died while 216 people under the age of 18 have died. Covid represents a proportion of deaths from all causes of 13.5% for 85+ and 0.58% under 18. The trend in between the age group extremes continues in an expected way. You can't make the same decisions about risks when you have one side so skewed by age. There is absolutely no guarantee that side effects from vaccin…

0.58% is an order of magnitude higher then 30 out of 17 million. Going by these numbers, AZ is still better than COVID. And I doubt any worse than other vaccines.

That is an incorrect statistical comparison.

It is 0.58% of all deaths being caused by covid. As in 994 out of 1000 people under 18 died in the same period from other things.

Compared to people who are alive covid killed 0.000288% (or 1 in 350,000) under 18s.

30 in 17M is too few to have a reliable statistic, but that comes out to 1 in 567,000.

If that holds, is age invariant, etc. etc. and ignoring the time-based nature of the covid deaths, taking that vaccine would represent a *50%* increase in death risk for under 18s, which is just absurdly high. (it doesn't matter that that 50% isn't exactly right, anything remotely close is an unacceptable risk)

Statistics is hard.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#260

Post by ipaddr » Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 5:26 PM UTC

yokaze wrote: post #71

Nursie wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure at this point. When it was one suspicious death, countries suspending the vaccine definitely seemed like an overreaction, and unfortunately this particular vaccine has been something of a political football and subject of a lot of noise. But as more blood-clot deaths emerge... you gotta think caution is wise. OTOH yes, we in the UK have administered a lot of this stuff, and you'd think someone would have…

> But as more blood-clot deaths emerge... you gotta think caution is wise. I would challenge the term "caution", as it implies giving the vaccine is more risky than not. > Difficult to call, but I hope it's all being investigated thoroughly I agree there. But rather not for medical reasons.

It may be more risky for a certain population (it looks like younger people). We just don't know yet.

The majority of people getting the vaccinations are older. Perhaps we will see more cases will emerge for the younger age groups.