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London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

hsj.co.uk

251–260 of 391 posts

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#251
post #201
post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, January 2019 in London Commissioning Region hospitals: 1033 open adult critical care beds; 882 in use. 85% utilisation. Best-case forecast Jan 2021: 2078 critical care beds required, 1,661 available (increase of ~600). Forecasted 125% utilistation.

I don’t think beds really work in a way that allows 125% utilization.

They do when they start converting other wings into ICU space

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#252

This article is confusing. It starts off by saying this is an analysis of "best" and "worst" case scenarios for continued growth in cases, but later it says: > HSJ understands that the briefing was part of an attempt to get senior clinical leaders to focus on what they would have to do, if current growth trends were not surpressed by the tighter lockdown . So, er, what if the growth trends are suppressed by the tight…

It's not immediately obvious from any reporting but the "rules" in London haven't actually changed significantly since the 20th December (schools did not reopen as planned but they'd been closed since before then anyway for the Christmas break).

The only meaningful change in the past couple of days is the "takeaway pint" ban (which is unlikely to make any difference and is purely symbolic).

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#253
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A colleague made the point that we need more pictures of overflowing morgues and ICUs and (like is happening in LA) people waiting in an ambulance for 7-8 hours (and some of those people dying because of it). Just like the US government banned (discouraged?) pictures of caskets coming back from war. These images need to be on the news and on news websites 24/7.

There should be more awareness about what is going on in hospitals all year round. Media hype can make everything extreme. And there are many theories to explain, for example NY morgues may have been overflowing because morgue owners were afraid to accept people who died from Covid. Is there actual evidence that people died because they couldn't receive care? Even in Italy I have not seen the evidence, just YouTube v…

Maybe they died because aliens coincidentally Tele-killed them. Lots of theories!

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#254
post #203
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the beginning of this pandemic, I watched a 2-3 min video of a Turin hospital (back when Italy was the epicenter in the west) of people silently choking to death in their ventilators. It was absolutely fucking eerie and insane and every time I think of doing something risky, I think about the sound in that video. Unfortunately in this context, it is illegal to film people in a hospital. I think that's a fair rule…

If the person gives their consent to be filmed I don't think it's morally wrong. If I ended up in intensive care due to the covid I'd agree to be filmed for prevention

Or you can blur faces etc.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#255
post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The people in the video seem to just walk around outdoors and not very close to other people. That many people obviously will mean a risk that some of them go into stores, but if there is a reasonably safe thing to do outdoors (like a particularly nice street) it’s natural that this becomes extra popular when people want to find something to do outdoors.

Most of them are far closer than I would be comfortable without a mask outside. I only take mine off when there is no one around for like 25 yards, because you never know when someone will cross paths with you and end up very much in your personal space. You can be sure if people are this lax in a busy commercial district in public, they are just as lax when they gather with their friends and family in private, which…

25 yards? Outside? Humans really are bad at evaluating risk, I guess.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#256
post #201
post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, January 2019 in London Commissioning Region hospitals: 1033 open adult critical care beds; 882 in use. 85% utilisation. Best-case forecast Jan 2021: 2078 critical care beds required, 1,661 available (increase of ~600). Forecasted 125% utilistation.

I don’t think beds really work in a way that allows 125% utilization.

Yes, that’s the point.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#257
post #246
post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So by that calculation 1.32 million people (2% of 66 million) would die and we're supposed to NOT react strongly to people who hold that opinion?

As supposed of advocating lockdown ? How many million of people would suffer from lockdown?

Really not sure how to perform that comparison. How do we equate one death vs one "suffer", and how do we count the "suffers" of people who take ill of covid in the free-for-all scenario? I think the ball is in your court on this one but, frankly, good luck

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#258
post #38

Because on one hand the government thinks it's OK for people to die alone in ICU and bury them without their friends of family[1]. But on the other hand said that it's OK to meet people to celebrate Xmas with[2]. Sources: [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-52312653 [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-55056375 Edit: Downvoted? It's not even my opinion. It's facts. Damn. Or do you think that's not the r…

Meanwhile in Australia the "cricket has to go ahead", crowds and all, despite Sydney being on the knife-edge of heading towards a second wave. All because the politicians involved are huge cricket fans and even server on the boards of cricketing organizations. I've never understood why politicians are allowed to have such blatant conflicts of interest, but they get to write the rules, not us...

NFL and college football have been dealing with outbreaks all season. The people demand their spectacles.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point I'm not sure they're capable of feeling embarrassed or stupid. They get all riled up and start acting out, but it doesn't look like insulting and embarrassing them is working...

Surprise surprise, amplifying division just further amplifies division. We're hearing this: A: "I'm dying inside because of lockdown. I can't work and I'm this close to the end of my rope." Should the response be this? B: "People are dying outside because of COVID. I don't care about your pain. You are an idiot." A: [storms capitol] Or this? B: "This sucks all around for sure. Your pain is real, and I feel it too. Th…

Of course, some people can't be reasoned with and others will just go off the handle because they're crazy. There's no point in being nice to those, but people forget about all the others that are not far gone and we could help them to understand. That's never going to happen if we start every sentence by calling them idiots right off the bat.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#260
post #160
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So now the number of free icu beds in hospital and number of death are the only kpi we look at to make decisions? It is crazy how people opinion like mine is fully ignored in Europe. today we tolerate flu deaths so that people can live freely, why shouldn't we tolerate covid deaths to live freely?

You will tolerate deaths until it becomes a loved one or yourself. At that point you'll realise that all you need to do is stop being an idiot and understand that with some restrictions we can significantly reduce deaths and at some point in the near future resume "free life". "It's crazy" how much people are willing to risk just because they can't be patient.

> You will tolerate deaths until it becomes a loved one or yourself.

Couldn't you argue that a loved one may die because of the consequences of the lockdown? Undiagnosed cancer, depression, suicide, aftermath of the ruined economy? Is anyone keeping this tally?

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