San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders • Hacker News Board

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#251

Post by p4coder » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 4:52 PM UTC

nkurz wrote: post #243

p4coder wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My daughter's school has 2000 kids. 4000 parents. In Santa Clara county the death rate for 40-60 is .5% [1] That would mean 20 parents dead if everyone gets it. Many of the households in immigrant families are multi generational. That will have a multiplying effect. [1] 12.7% deaths and 29.1% cases https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard-demogra...

While it's still going to be a very real number, I think you are overestimating the number of deaths considerably. I appreciate that you provided a link, but I don't think that source includes the information you would need to make the estimate you are looking for. First, I think that you are implicitly assuming that there are an equal number of people in each age category. In addition to the percentages you quote, y…

I simply did percent_dead times num_dead/percent_cases times num_cases. That leads to ~0.5%. I agree with you that IFR is unknowable without very thorough sero-survey. So all we have is CFR to go on. The ratio depends on population age and test availability etc.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#252

Post by deeviant » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 5:03 PM UTC

sbuttgereit wrote: post #32

Reading this I was expecting the same knee-jerk, panic response that has become the "acceptable" public health response to the problem the pandemic places before us. While I detect a hint of futility in this statement, I am nonetheless deeply heartened to know some public health officials are themselves questioning some of the simplistic premises that have been driving policy to this point at all levels of government…

People only tend to appreciate thoughtfulness and restraint when said thoughtfulness and restraint benefits and/or agrees with their own positions.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#253

Post by s1artibartfast » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 5:11 PM UTC

monodeldiablo wrote: post #222

s1artibartfast wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are substituting instructions for information. I lack information. For example: Has anyone in San Mateo caught covid eating at a restaurant? How many? Has anyone in San Mateo caught covid grocery shopping? How Many? Has anyone in San Mateo Caught covid exercising outside? How many? Has anyone in San Mateo Caught covid at school? How many?

There's no way to get the information you desire without Big Brother level tracing. And even then the error bars are huge. Symptoms set in days after exposure, and transmission is uneven at best. Full disclosure: I've had covid. We assume we were exposed at the clinic, where our kid needed emergency medical treatment. But if so, only one of us was with the child indoors -- in a cleaned room with a doctor in full PPE…

>There's no way to get the information you desire without Big Brother level tracing.

As I responded to the sibling comment, I don't think that is accurate. Of course many, if not most cases can not be traced, many certainly can be. Some people know exactly where they got covid, and who they exposed, and where.

The US has 50,000 full time contact tracers working to collect this information. Surely there is some data by now?

>Your questions are unanswerable.

IF the question is categorically unanswerable (which I don't believe), contact tracing programs should be disbanded.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#254

Post by matz1 » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 5:18 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #247

matz1 wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the healthcare worker is overworked, then the hospital should hire more worker. Its not like there is not enough healthcare worker looking for employment all over the country. The lockdown was needless because it is worse than the risk if covid.

The unemployment rate for licensed healthcare providers is very low. There are really no extra physicians out there.

And yet the hospital laying off and furloughing worker.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#255

Post by edmundsauto » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 5:47 PM UTC

babesh wrote: post #180

jacobolus wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> California only thinks in terms of lockdowns What are you thinking of? Personally I think we could do much better at hiring contact tracers, getting test sites into vulnerable neighborhoods, doing general community outreach, making sure public-facing workers have sufficient PPE, figuring out how to get infected people places to isolate away from their households, protecting incarcerated people, etc. But historicall…

My opinion is that people are tired of the orders and that they will not change people’s behaviors.

What makes you think this is a belief held by a large number of people, rather than a vocal minority?

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#256

Post by edmundsauto » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 5:49 PM UTC

s1artibartfast wrote: post #253

monodeldiablo wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no way to get the information you desire without Big Brother level tracing. And even then the error bars are huge. Symptoms set in days after exposure, and transmission is uneven at best. Full disclosure: I've had covid. We assume we were exposed at the clinic, where our kid needed emergency medical treatment. But if so, only one of us was with the child indoors -- in a cleaned room with a doctor in full PPE…

>There's no way to get the information you desire without Big Brother level tracing. As I responded to the sibling comment, I don't think that is accurate. Of course many, if not most cases can not be traced, many certainly can be. Some people know exactly where they got covid, and who they exposed, and where. The US has 50,000 full time contact tracers working to collect this information. Surely there is some data b…

It’s dangerous to not put much credence in where people think they got the virus. We have all kinds of biases that mean we are not going to be very good at this.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#257

Post by edmundsauto » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 5:55 PM UTC

trhway wrote: post #208

paganel wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Czech Republic and Bulgaria had harder/more restrictive lockdowns during the entire year compared to my country (Romania) and yet they have a death-rate higher than ours. Indeed, they managed to ride the first wave pretty much unscathed, but the second one looks like it hit both of them comparatively harder than it hit us.

it may as well happen that lockdowns put selective pressure on the virus for higher virulence. Anyway, the government bureaucrats are naturally go for simple short-term game like lockdowns without doing any complex long-term thinking (which for example would be the things like efficient preparation for the second wave and achieving herd immunity with minimal losses and minimizing the total losses).

Do you have any evidence for your first graph, or is it something that you contributed in order to add more zest to your internet comment?

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#258

Post by edmundsauto » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 5:57 PM UTC

matz1 wrote: post #229

simonbarker87 wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know many doctors and nurses and they are exhausted, over worked and thankful it didn’t get worse than it was To say that lock down was needless because the worst case scenario isn’t proof the lock down wasn’t needed. It is evidence (not proof mind) that the lockdowns worked. It’s like saying you didn’t need to save money because you never ran out of money so you didn’t need the savings in the first place

If the healthcare worker is overworked, then the hospital should hire more worker. Its not like there is not enough healthcare worker looking for employment all over the country. The lockdown was needless because it is worse than the risk if covid.

They are paying nurses up to $10k per week to travel and work in covid wards. Let me assure you, in America, we have a great shortage of skilled healthcare workers.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#259

Post by edmundsauto » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 6:01 PM UTC

sokoloff wrote: post #240

remote_phone wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He said generations worth of damage. Come on. It might hurt a kid for her SAT if it was this or next year but to think she would have long term damage from a couple of shitty years of school, that’s preposterous. Kids are made of sterner stuff than this.

I benefited from my parents’ achievements (scholastic, work ethic, and financial support). My kids will benefit from mine in the same way. It’s not hard to imagine that a year of subpar schooling could cast a multi-generational shadow on the most vulnerable.

Do we really think missing 8% of required schooling is that dramatic? I can’t be the only person who thinks the education being afforded the folks hit hardest is minimally valuable.

School sucks fir the vast majority of kids. It’s a warehousing system so parents can both work.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#260

Post by edmundsauto » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 6:03 PM UTC

babesh wrote: post #176

remote_phone wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course you will see negative impacts this year. Online education sucks. But assuming kids are back in school September 2022, will there be lasting effects? No. If there are gaps, they will be addressed because all kids will have suffered the same thing, it’s not like the one kid who got mono and missed 3 months of school by herself.

This is bad reasoning. If everyone produces less by the same amount, then even if you produce no less than the next person, the overall production has gone down.

This assumes public schools are so efficient that losing be 8% will be impactful? I just don’t see it.