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Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

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Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#251

Post by jessriedel »

mrgordon wrote: post #242
necubi wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not saying there wasn't excitement about AVs. The specific claim I'm disputing (which I've heard over and over again over the past few years) is that either company considered AVs to be the only path to profitability. The history is a bit complicated, because before the IPOs neither company was focused on profitability as a primary goal.

I agree for Lyft but Uber pretty aggressively pushed the vision as necessary for their future when they were burning so much cash on ATG.

They pushed it as necessary for their future because the future will be self-driving and anyone without access to that tech will be out-competed. That's completely different than it being necessary to their future because their present business model cannot be made profitable.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#252

Post by jessaustin »

jeltz wrote: post #141
pmiller2 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do drivers make any money while keeping the overall price less than a taxi? Factor in fuel and maintenance, and drivers are already getting pretty screwed on these platforms.

They don't. Which is why Ubers cost only slightly less than normal taxis in markets like Sweden where Uber has to follow the same regulations as their competitors. The low prices they have in markets like the US are not sustainable.

Prop 22 voters think otherwise... but yeah they're delusional.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#253

Post by azylman »

deeeeplearning wrote: post #161
jeltz wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only because they have burned so much VC. Both Uber and Bolt charge like normal taxi companies in Stockholm and can therefore afford to pay their drivers at the same time as making a profit. And as far as I know Bolt is basically already profitable, they just copied Uber's business but reduced the administration costs and did not blow a ton of cash on self driving cars. Having their HQ in Tallinn rather than SF also…

Hard to pay your execs and engineers insanely bloated Tech salaries on Taxi profit margins. It's a bubble ready to pop.The guy saying they will profitable in the next year is delusional.

"The guy" - the CEOs of both companies? You're essentially stating that the CEOs of Uber any Lyft are lying to their investors, which is a crime. That's a serious accusation and some actual evidence is needed.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#254

Post by jessaustin »

pishpash wrote: post #193
zerocrates wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do they get ROI on rides or Eats? I was under the impression they were still pretty substantially subsidizing prices on those, though maybe that's just out of date information.

It's not about subsidies as a business model so much as a war of capital attrition with weaker competitors, which is necessarily not endless.

Current competitors may go out of business. If there really is a niche, however, seeing off current competitors won't be the end of it. There's always someone else, who may not have burned so much VC.

The other option is that there will never be a sustainable business here.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#255

Post by thotsBgone »

dekhn wrote: post #231
arcticfox wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that right? That seems phenomenally bad. I feel like I have normal American driving habits and I drive a standard 10k miles per year... So I'm going to kill a pedestrian every 100 years? Assuming I drive normally for ~50 years, 500k miles, I have a 50% chance to kill a pedestrian?

only assuming a random naive model. how careful you are and how dangerous the location also matter.

Yeah, but it's also only counting pedestrian deaths.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#256

Post by [deleted] »

neolog wrote: post #199
mlboss wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read somewhere that there are different levels of "tech" company. A truly tech company would work without any human intervention for multiple days without breakdown. A non-tech company involves human in every tasks required for work. Most of the companies fall somewhere in between. Ride services/Food delivery company cannot function without humans.

Are there any companies that work for days without human intervention?

[deleted]

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#257

Post by ProAm »

cercatrova wrote: post #191
ProAm wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are a logistics and pricing company. If they would license this tech they'd be rich beyond belief. They companies could really be Uber-for-X.

I'm not sure they'd make as much as owning the network end to end. Vertical integration is hot right now, see Apple. Uber already has delivery via freight as well as getting into air delivery, so why would they need to license it? It just makes more sense to keep the tech proprietary and use it for their various enterprises.

It's tough to say, I think profitability would come faster than being a taxi company with an app (disregarding freight and air for now). But I think there is a much wider prospective customer base and recurring revenue licensing the tech stack as a SaaS. And that's not to say they have to give up Uber as a taxi company while they do both. It's a much more reasonable moonshot than the autonomous driving experiment they did that killed someone moving fast and breaking things. I see a lot of value there.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#258

Post by ProAm »

boh wrote: post #108
ProAm wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are a logistics and pricing company. If they would license this tech they'd be rich beyond belief. They companies could really be Uber-for-X.

Most companies prefer logistics/pricing models to be profitable. Being a pump-and-dump for VCs isn't something they can license out.

Isn't that just tuning compared to the race as a loss leader for market share?

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#259

Post by ProAm »

umeshunni wrote: post #113
ProAm wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are a logistics and pricing company. If they would license this tech they'd be rich beyond belief. They companies could really be Uber-for-X.

That's an interesting thought experiment. At the high level, Amazon is also primarily a logistics and pricing company. They could also license their tech (or white label it a la Shopify) and make a lot of money, but they realized at some point that owning the user relationship was key to unlocking more value than just owning the tech.

I think Amazon is licensing that tech to all 3rd party sellers now right?

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#260

Post by argonaut »

pmiller2 wrote: post #241
argonaut wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taxi medallions used to cost hundreds of thousands (SF) to more than half a million (NYC). Nowadays they still cost tens of thousands in SF and hundreds of thousands in some areas like NYC. Also, more efficient use of time from app-based routing.

I'm not convinced. Do you have evidence that "more efficient use of time from app-based routing" actually results in drivers making more money?

Medallions alone should be enough to make a difference. The efficient use of time probably has much less of an effect on earnings, if true.
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