Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

A (possible) solution to Covid-19

tillett.info

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

251–260 of 585 posts

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#251

Post by losvedir »

danieltillett wrote: post #239
losvedir wrote: post #224

How does the Iceland data suggest the hypotheses that 1) an attenuated strain exists in the wild and 2) it provides immunity to the worse strain? It's asserted in the post, but I don't see it. It seems likely to me their experience isn't any different from any other country's, and they're just testing more. The idea in the post is obviously a good one if it can be done, it's just that it seems like a generic idea tha…

It doesn’t which is why I never claimed it did??? As for why people aren’t working on this idea I don’t know. Maybe someone is and they will send me an email and I can update my post. I would certainly be extremely happy with this outcome.

I was responding to this from your blog post:

> This data suggests a simple and testable hypothesis – there are natural strains of SARS-CoV-2 in the world that have mutated to be non-pathogenic (asymptomatic), but are still infective and will provide immunity to the more pathogenic (deadly) strains.

From the structure of the post it sounded like "this data" referred to Iceland plus the Wuhan study.

If you only meant the Wuhan study then apologies for misunderstanding.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#252

Post by Igelau »

jka wrote: post #10

This seems risky but worth consideration. Can you provide peer / concept review from virologists? A few items of feedback: - You could use a title that includes a distinct word to identify your proposed solution: "Using accentuated COVID-19 strains as a (possible) solution". This helps people to communicate and refer to the idea concisely. - The top three paragraphs may be known to your target audience; consider allo…

I hear the phrase "peer review" thrown around so much it's reaching semantic satiation. I get that it's the way respected science gets done, but it's also the laziest possible critique because you're literally asking for someone else to think about it for you.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#253

Post by new299 »

danieltillett wrote: post #221
new299 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What are regulatory agencies going to to do? If you were to start doing this without regulatory approval, the most likely outcomes seems that you’d be arrested [1]. Do you have anything that suggests otherwise? > 1. We would know it is safe in humans before we began. The regulatory requirements for “knowing it is safe in humans” are currently quite high. As things stand, I would expect trials to be required. Can yo…

I am not going to be spreading the virus around so why would I be arrested? Actually once a “safe” strain was identified and could be tested for it would be impossible to stop it being spread by individuals on their own to those they know. As we have seen with the whole HCQ fiasco regulations have a habit of getting lowered once there is data, even poor data. If we contact trace everyone who has been infected with th…

Perhaps I’ve missed something in your argument then. I’d need to understand exactly how you are planning to promote the spread of the attenuated form. If you’re talking about a “sequencing driven” Pox party [1] then I suspect you will run into issues. Particularly if you were to say that the Pox party will infect you with an attenuated form of the virus and vaccinate.

Both the diagnostic (sequencing or otherwise) and claim that you are vaccinating individuals would seem like they’d require regulatory approval. But I’d be interested in evidence that suggests this is not the case in a modern context.

Overall, it seems like the idea is as dangerous as deploying an untested mRNA vaccine. Because of this, I’d suspect that regulatory or other authorities would get involved.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pox_party

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#255

Post by barbs »

danieltillett wrote: post #247
TuringNYC wrote: post #235

Dear @danieltillett - Thanks for the thoughtful piece. You noted on your post "live attenuated (oral) polio vaccine" but later wrote "Apart from the time it will take to develop, trial, and mass produce a vaccine (12-18 months), it is unlikely that any vaccine will be practicable." So how do you imagine this solution being administered if not as a vaccine? Is the solution a Pox Party ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P…

A pox party would work. Given the strain will be infectious like the dangerous strains it is not going to be too hard to spread it around. You can look at it from the other perspective - once identified it would be impossible to stop people spreading it around on their own. Let’s say one of you friends got infected with this “safe” strain you would quickly head over to their home for a cup of tea and a good chat.

Much like the dangerous virus can mutate to a less harmful version of itself, isn't there a risk that the benign version could mutate back to a (more) dangerous form if spread this way?

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#256

Post by meroes »

There's multiple people here suggesting everyday people spread a possibly less lethal strain, in ways that will likely spread every other contagious disease they also had.

I think this post needs to be removed now

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#258

Post by danieltillett »

losvedir wrote: post #251
danieltillett wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn’t which is why I never claimed it did??? As for why people aren’t working on this idea I don’t know. Maybe someone is and they will send me an email and I can update my post. I would certainly be extremely happy with this outcome.

I was responding to this from your blog post: > This data suggests a simple and testable hypothesis – there are natural strains of SARS-CoV-2 in the world that have mutated to be non-pathogenic (asymptomatic), but are still infective and will provide immunity to the more pathogenic (deadly) strains. From the structure of the post it sounded like "this data" referred to Iceland plus the Wuhan study. If you only meant…

Yes both. The Icelandic data suggests there is genetic diversity in SARS-CoV-2 and the Wuhan data suggests there are strains that are less pathogenic.

There is also a Singapore study that has identified strains with large gene deletions, but I haven’t yet updated the post to include it [0].

0. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987222v1....

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#259

Post by IdoRA »

A naturally attenuated strain would still be regulated. In the US, 21 USC §321(g):

> (1) The term "drug" means… (B) articles intended for use in the diagnosis, cure, mitigation, treatment, or prevention of disease in man or other animals;

CBER would be the responsible center for the FDA. Other countries have analogous regulations.

Could you come to market with a naturally attenuated strain? Yes. Would it take less time? Not really, because you don’t get to do an “end run around the regulations” as you put it in another comment. The logistics of making sure it works and then setting up the supply chain and quality systems are what take the most time. There are no shortcuts in medicine.

Post reply on HN