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What is energy, actually? (2011)

jancovici.com

251–260 of 286 posts

Re: What is energy, actually? (2011)

#251
post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Warren Buffett likes to regularly point out that the Fed's rates act like gravity on stock valuations. The lower the rates, the less gravity. The same is largely true of how housing is affected by the Fed's rates. If you want to absolutely crush housing prices, push Fed rates back up to where mortgage rates are at 15-20% again. What that all really means is, the lower the rates, the more asset valuation inflation o…

What you're describing would completely cripple the economy and raise rents rather than lower them, the opposite of what you hope for. A severe tax on property would simply force property owners to raise rents. This in turn would price people out of the market. The housing stock would suffer as property owners would have no excess funds to make improvements and repairs to property. Building of new property would slow…

In what way have the VAT had disastrous effects on European economies? Goods are more expensive, but that is no disaster.

Re: What is energy, actually? (2011)

#252

> The term “GDP per energy unit” is nothing else than the energy efficiency of the economy: the more efficient the economic system is, the more GDP is produced with the same amount of energy. In other words, when this term increases, it means that for the same amount of kWh (or BTU!), we can have more furniture, glasses, cars, frozen peas, buildings or coffee machines. FWIW, i want to point out that this is an often-…

> For example, something like 30%-50% of the electricity we generate (okay, transform) is lost in the grid on the way to the consumer.

I don't think it is that much.

Plus electricity is not our main energy consumption.

And most of our machines have actually a decent efficiency. And/or it is hard to optimize. ICE for example have not even progressed that much in several decades. One or two dozen % maybe? And they will also not improve much in the future.

So we can not sustain by merely efficiency improvements. Because we are talking about reducing the energy consumption greatly. Like x2, 3, 4. But of course efficiency is crucially important, and part of what will be required.

Re: What is energy, actually? (2011)

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Kind of amusing that this idea is posted here on Hacker News, the center of people seeking jobs and companies that are the definition of growth. But that's the good kind of growth, you see? I'm being sarcastic, of course. The ironic (and to me: annoying) thing about the really vocal moralists is that the concept of self-reflection seems to be entirely foreign to them. The problem is always with other people, and th…

> The ironic (and to me: annoying) thing about the really vocal moralists is that the concept of self-reflection seems to be entirely foreign to them. The problem is always with other people, and those other people just need to change, no matter at what cost. That's your assumption, and I believe it's pretty wrong. Advocating for changes that go against your own immediate self-interest isn't lack of self-reflection;…

I believe you misunderstood my point. I wasn't talking about people advocating for change against their own immediate self-interest, I was talking about people suiting their own self-interest by advocating for other people to change, regardless of what that entails for those other people and, most importantly, without consideration for whether the advocacy is merited and just, given their own position.

> Advocating for changes that go against your own immediate self-interest isn't lack of self-reflection; if anything, it's often a signal of a correctly pointing moral compass.

People like to advocate for change a lot, and they often do so whilst working in the opposite direction of that change. I consider that hollow.

Re: What is energy, actually? (2011)

#254
post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Warren Buffett likes to regularly point out that the Fed's rates act like gravity on stock valuations. The lower the rates, the less gravity. The same is largely true of how housing is affected by the Fed's rates. If you want to absolutely crush housing prices, push Fed rates back up to where mortgage rates are at 15-20% again. What that all really means is, the lower the rates, the more asset valuation inflation o…

Why 5%? That's enough to very nearly double the recurring cost of my house (mortgage, insurance and taxes), which seems overly punitive. Does this get offset somewhere else? Looking at a few quick numbers from Google, just residential property alone would add 50% to current US tax revenues. I'm guessing that means we'd be in the ballpark of doubling Federal tax revenue. I guess that's not necessarily a bad thing, but…

> Why 5%?

I need to make it high enough to 1. make home ownership expensive enough that people who own "too much" pay their fair share 2. to pay for the supplemental basic income that covers this high tax for a modest one bedroom unit so I don't end up killing people who are willing to scale down.

I actually wanted it to be slightly higher than seven percent so you end up paying the sticker price of the house once every about ten years but that seemed a little too extreme.

Re: What is energy, actually? (2011)

#255
post #39
post #21

The argument is based on looking a the world as a whole. In developed world energy intensity of GDP is decreasing even when you take into account imports. Post-industrial economies can grow while decreasing energy use. What the author is suggesting is that the developing world should stop growing. I can't agree with that. They need their electricity and washing machines. GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2011 PPP…

They need their electricity and washing machine, but do they need exotic vacations and long commutes in powerful cars? Do they need clothes that are made to be worn for a very short time? Do they need technology that's cheap to the point of it being wasted without an afterthought?

Do we need a future? If we aren't going to stick to higher density fuels like fossil, nuclear or some sort of interesting synthetic then we are going to struggle to get off the planet earth.

There are two very-long-term futures. One where humanity ends up in space, and one where we get the Chicxulub treatment. One of those paths involves us having so much energy that wasting a bit on holidays is irrelevant, and the other raises the question of how much we need to conserve for future generations anyway given that we're going down the nihilistic path.

Re: What is energy, actually? (2011)

#256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> [...] long commutes in powerful cars? People in developed countries don't need that either. Commuting being a hard requirement for modern life in an industrialised country is both a fallacy and perpetuated cargo cult. Most people working in offices today effectively wouldn't have to commute but they still do because employers require them to do so, basically because "that's the way it's always been". Doing away wit…

>Most people working in offices today effectively wouldn't have to commute but they still do because employers require them to do so, basically because "that's the way it's always been". A million times this. My entire office could do their job from home as even when we need something we have to email our team leads and CC our manager so I could be doing that at home, in comfortable clothes, not fighting 50-something…

I friend of mine always asked during job interviews how many bathrooms the office had.

The reason for this was that he spent a considerable amount of time in an office, where there was one bathroom for somewhere around two hundred people. Madness.

Re: What is energy, actually? (2011)

#257
post #21

The argument is based on looking a the world as a whole. In developed world energy intensity of GDP is decreasing even when you take into account imports. Post-industrial economies can grow while decreasing energy use. What the author is suggesting is that the developing world should stop growing. I can't agree with that. They need their electricity and washing machines. GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2011 PPP…

There is some decoupling, or actually some decreasing coupling; however we need strong negative decoupling right now, and nothing hints that it's even remotely possible.

Re: What is energy, actually? (2011)

#258
For millennia, there was no growth because available energy was strictly limited. GDP of a country was a function of its population, itself strongly related to its agricultural capacity.

Read ancient history; you'll see that empires, for ages, relied entirely upon pillaging their neighbours for their own enhancement. The world economy was a strictly zero-sum game basically forever.

The political constructions of the past reflected that state of the matter. There was no social mobility because resource scarcity commanded that as a son of a mason, you couldn't be anything but a mason. And of course, 90% of people had to work in agriculture, anyway, just to feed everyone. There was no way out. Of course society was driven through rigid hierarchies.

Then at some point some guy discovered America, and a strong, growing influx of riches began pouring into Europe. People discovered absolute, continued growth. Then as this trend continued and England had cut down all its trees, they started using coal, and the movement accelerated itself, and went on until now.

As Jancovici remarks, we always went from some energy source to a more powerful, denser, more reliable one: hunting to agriculture, windmills and hand pumps to coal, coal to oil. We never went the other way around, but at some time we'll have to. How to cope?

Now let's talk for a minute about GDP. I had quite heated argument with people with economics background. Basically, they say that GDP can grow eternally because GDP is related to value, which has no physical existence. So though GDP generally implies some form of materiality (be it in the form of ore, grain, industrial goods, or services) it's not mandatory because you could for instance build a better car using no more materials than the previous one.

However it seems to me that this quickly wanders into philosophical territory: what is value? In economics, it seems related to human satisfaction. As the number of human beings on earth is physically limited (we could be 10 billions, 100 billions, but not an infinity), at some point that implies that individual satisfaction can increase indefinitely. That's a stretch, however you see it. That would mean that two humans exchanging a given set of resources in a closed room could increase indefinitely the satisfaction they get from their relationship, and so any arbitrary small country with as few inhabitants as you want could have an infinitely growing GDP, and reach individual nirvana and beyond. BTW I fail to see the point of free trade at this point... Standard neoclassic economics are full of such logical holes.

Re: What is energy, actually? (2011)

#259
post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are food prices going up? I can't say I've noticed it where I live.

Then you are not accurately tracking your food costs by unit of measure. Nor tracking pricing at restaurants. I have seen a combination of both Shrink and Price increases. The cost of eating lunch at my favorite restaurants has steadily increased, and the Average price per unit for normal groceries has increased on a weekly basis. Even if your bill remains the same, that 32oz Ketchup is now probably 28oz Looking at s…

What data sources are you looking at? According to this website which is basing their data off of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistic, it shows beef is up 40% [0], bananas are down 5.58% [1], and milk is up 8.56% [2] since 2009 which is way less than what you are quoting and even the beef only averages out to 3.44% inflation per year.

[0]: https://www.in2013dollars.com/Beef-and-veal/price-inflation/...

[1]: https://www.in2013dollars.com/Bananas/price-inflation/2009-t...

[2]: https://www.in2013dollars.com/Milk/price-inflation/2009-to-2...

Re: What is energy, actually? (2011)

#260
post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 6. The end result is a sort of "Red Queen" effect where everyone is forced to compete harder and harder just to maintain his/her existing standard of living. Nice pocket philosophy, if only the world was a zero sum game, but it's NOT. The past 300 years of growth in human prosperity should make that abundantly clear. Past 30 years the world has reduced extreme poverty by half. Not because we in the developed world…

That will probably mean some industries would disappear, if they can't innovate their way out of their externalities.

The same way other inefficient industries disappear when they are outcompeted.

We see bank tellers replaced with ATMs because ATMs are cheaper. Humans are adaptable, if done gradually over time it'll probably be fine.

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