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Facebook Libra Is Architecturally Unsound

stephendiehl.com

251–260 of 347 posts

Re: Facebook Libra Is Architecturally Unsound

#251
post #96

I've been thinking and it actually makes a lot of sense for new ways to be created to transfer money and pay for things (though I'm highly skeptical of having it operated by Facebook and of the ad-hoc pump-and-dump-prone and whitewashing-and-tax-avoidance-friendly properties of cryptocurrencies). But when you think about it, it's insane that transferring money is something credit cards and payment processors can regu…

It's not about the cost of changing numbers in databases, it's about the costs of risk and fraud. (And points/discounts/giveaways from issuers to cardholders.) This is why processing debit payments is cheaper

Re: Facebook Libra Is Architecturally Unsound

#253
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The possibility that a Libra node run by Mastercard or Andressen Horowitz would suddenly start running malicious code is such a bizarre scenario It doesn't seem like a bizarre scenario at all. Consider: - Real-time control system nodes in Iran's nuclear energy project suddenly started running malicious code, destroying a large number of their centrifuges. - Crypto AG cipher machines sold to embassies around the wor…

> I don't think it's at all far-fetched to suggest that if Mastercard or Andreessen Horowitz is in a position to decide how much of other people's money they're entitled to, they might decide that the answer is "all of it". Paypal and Google do this on a regular basis. Here in Argentina, the banking system decided that the answer was "75% of it" in 2001, with respect to dollars; in the US, the Federal Government did…

+ FWIW, 51% of the mining power only allows you to double-spend, not arbitrarily modify the existing ledger.

+ Since Libra uses a HotStuff variant, you need to control 2/3+ of the voting power to violate safety, i.e., double-spend. In exchange, however, you only need to control 1/3+ to halt progress (liveness).

Re: Facebook Libra Is Architecturally Unsound

#254
post #248
post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It depends on which particular data series you use for deflation. There are definitely things for which US$1 in 1972 is more like US$25 in 2019, such as gold and energy. To take one example among many, oil cost US$3 per barrel at the beginning of 1973, and despite the fracking boom in the US, it costs US$63 today, 21× as much. And, as you yourself point out, you need over US$100 today to buy shares of stock that cost…

Certain things outpace inflation, yes. Certain things are drastically cheaper. That's why we use an inflation measure that's sort of an aggregate, not pinned to one or two commodities. You don't spend 100% of your money on oil and gold. Oil now is 3x more expensive even after a more average inflation of ~4% compared to the bottom of 1973 (though in the mid 90s it wasn't so bad). Energy as a whole though, is not 3x mo…

There isn't an objectively correct basket of goods that is obviously the correct deflator to use, which seems to be a significant underlying assumption of your line of reasoning. The debate about which ones are the important ones to include in statistics like the US BLS CPI is a politically charged debate resolved in part by political means, not purely by the disinterested pursuit of truth. The CPI in particular eminently susceptible to drift over the years, since the goods in it change over time according to the Consumer Expenditure Survey — in 1973 people in the US were buying washing machines that are still in use today and Saran Wrap made of actual Saran, for example, and today they're buying washing machines that wear out in five years and Saran-free Saran Wrap. And of course it measures the prices of only mass-market consumer goods, not services (such as the essentials, child care and elder care) or custom or unique goods such as hand-tailored suits or buildings — a political decision, not an objective one.

If we want to be skeptical of carefully tailored metrics with thousands of parameters produced by political appointees, what standard should we use to measure the value of the dollar? Precious metals have been the standard against which currencies have been measured for several thousand years — the gold standard for measuring the value of currencies, you could say — and by that standard the dollar's loss of value since 1973 is about a factor of 25. This compares to about a factor of 2 over the previous 40 years, since 1933, and a factor of about 1.1 over the previous 140 or so years since the dollar was introduced.

I suspect that if you compare other goods which are, like gold and crude oil, verifiably produced to the same standard of quality in 1973 and today, you will find a similar factor of 16–32 in their dollar prices. I'm thinking of the most common grades of steel, aluminum, brass, portland cement, window glass, industrial electric motors, and so on. There will definitely be some exceptions — ±1% resistors are much cheaper now, to the point where you can't even get the ±20% kind that were the norm in 1973, and I imagine the same is true of specialty steels, synthetic sapphire, and a number of other things that were barely feasible at the time; and presumably photographic film has become more expensive, as it has ceased to be a mass-market item. If you're right about the cost of electricity "staying the same" — by which I assume you mean that, in the US, it increases in line with the BLS CPI? — this suggests that my hypothesis won't be true of coal. Do you have any other ideas?

Let's take anthracite, because it's the purest grade of coal, so it should be less vulnerable to variation in value from drift in grading standards. https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/showtext.php?t=p... suggests that nominal anthracite coal prices have risen from US$13.65 per short ton in 1973 to US$70.99 in 2011; https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/coal/prices-and-outlook.... says that in 2017 they were US$93.17 per short ton, FOB the mine. That's a factor of 6.8, which is a lot closer to 6 than to 25.

Re: Facebook Libra Is Architecturally Unsound

#255
post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Security is defined with respect to certain threats, and blockchain is rarely the most secure with respect to the threats in a monetary system. Wow, this is a great way to frame this! What do you see as the largest threats to the effective operation of a monetary system?

Basically, scams. The ability to block a planned payment or ask your bank to chargeback is one of the keys to trust in online economy. If our banking system had used something like bitcoin to implement online transactions, odds are that e-business would have had much less successs and much higher barrier to entry.

Given a system with irreversible transactions you can always add structure on top to support escrow, chargebacks, or whatever other protection mechanisms you deem prudent. It doesn't work so well the other way around.

Re: Facebook Libra Is Architecturally Unsound

#256
post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the US dollar has lost 96% of its value since the end of the gold standard in 1973 And Bitcoin lost over 90% of its value in just under 2 years. Where are you going with this, council?

> And Bitcoin lost over 90% of its value in just under 2 years. When do you mean? Right now Bitcoin is US$9400, which is almost exactly half of its all-time high value of US$19891 (in 2017). There are several times it has lost more than half of its value, but I don't remember a time when it has lost 90% of its value. The reason the dollar inflates and never deflates is that it's designed to inflate. On purpose. The u…

> When do you mean? Right now Bitcoin is US$9400, which is almost exactly half of its all-time high value of US$19891 (in 2017). There are several times it has lost more than half of its value, but I don't remember a time when it has lost 90% of its value.

Looks like I overstated it slightly. It lost 85% of its value between its all time high December 17th 2017 ($19,891) and December 16th 2018 ($3,159).

The rest of your response, in my opinion, is immaterial. I can't imagine a soul who'd prefer their money to "fluctuate wildly"—to the tune of -85% in a year—vs slowly losing 1-3% per year. Especially when there are very accessible financial instruments (e.g., TIPS) to avoid even that.

Re: Facebook Libra Is Architecturally Unsound

#257
post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't think it's at all far-fetched to suggest that if Mastercard or Andreessen Horowitz is in a position to decide how much of other people's money they're entitled to, they might decide that the answer is "all of it". Paypal and Google do this on a regular basis. Here in Argentina, the banking system decided that the answer was "75% of it" in 2001, with respect to dollars; in the US, the Federal Government did…

+ FWIW, 51% of the mining power only allows you to double-spend, not arbitrarily modify the existing ledger. + Since Libra uses a HotStuff variant, you need to control 2/3+ of the voting power to violate safety, i.e., double-spend. In exchange, however, you only need to control 1/3+ to halt progress (liveness).

If you can halt progress, you can make any particular person's holdings impossible to spend (if you can identify them), by refusing to include any blocks that include transactions from them. That isn't quite as lucrative as simply confiscating someone's holdings, but it's close; you can demand a ransom of a sufficient fraction of their holdings, perhaps 5% to 50%, depending on human nature.

Re: Facebook Libra Is Architecturally Unsound

#258
Genuine question: how do I share code with other parties in the industry?

Suppose that I'm working in the insurance industry and I want my company A to share the ownership of some code (and its execution) with company B. It's a redundant piece of code that would otherwise be implemented in both companies internally.

We may share a repository. That's simple and clear. But who is going to run this code? How do I know that the code running is the one shown in the shared repository?

When I see things like Hyperledger Fabric, I see a possible solution to this problem (although I don't know about the downsides of Fabric). I can ensure that, given the same inputs, all parties will produce the same outputs. This seems like a fair use for a permissioned blockchain and smart contracts.

But what else is out there? How would you approach this problem?

Re: Facebook Libra Is Architecturally Unsound

#259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok round 2. > “inflation is theft” I think you didn’t read anything I wrote because my core focus is that inflation is 100% avoidable through investment which is the behavior explicitly being incentivized via, to your point, a stick and not a carrot approach. It’s theft like taxation is theft: it’s not. > a GSE creates money from nothing Yes that’s the point. The economy gets bigger and more people are born and the m…

> It’s theft like taxation is theft: it’s not. Taxation is also theft. > If you don’t believe the value of existing money should go up then you agree the money supply must expand to match economic growth and population growth. The unit of exchange (money/currency) should remain relatively constant. That's the point. Maybe it will go up some, maybe it will go down some, but having it manipulated for the profit of larg…

> Taxation is also theft.

Aw you’re one of those! It’s all starting to make sense. https://www.newyorker.com/humor/daily-shouts/l-p-d-libertari...

I sure hope you don’t need the army, police, schools, fire, water, roads, air and so on. Most adults came to realize at some point that some things need to be provided as a group, and they’re not free. For those everyone has to pony up.

If you don’t want to pay taxes there’s a few countries you can do that in but in most paying taxes is social contact: it’s a take all the benefits and pay taxes, or leave to a society with a contact you view more amiable.

> unit of exchange should remain relatively constant.

Well if I have 100 people and my economy had $100, and Steve has $20 of them, then Steve invented the steam train and 100,000,000 more people show up then the value of my dollar has gone up millions of times over and Steve is now the single wealthiest human on earth even though he’s only got $20. To keep it stable I’d make more dollars. If you see how this works on the macro timescale you must see how it translates to the micro.

> to the profit of the large banks

We’re paying them to provide liquidity to the economy via lending and again they only make 1% on assets on deposit. It’s not the system you seem to think it is.

> avoidable...

You just have to factor that in to the investment minimum yield. This isn’t rocket science. You are not guaranteed a risk-free return on capital. To ease this Trump is considering indexing capital gains against inflation, another approach (which I wholeheartedly disagree with).

Re: Facebook Libra Is Architecturally Unsound

#260

This post is filled with a large number of factual inaccuracies, so numerous I wrote a blog post in response: https://tonyarcieri.com/factual-inaccuracies-of-facebook-lib...

You should submit that

Someone else already did. You can find it here: https://news.ycombinator.com/newest
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