Fossil fuel divestment has ‘zero’ climate impact, says Bill Gates • Hacker News Board

Re: Fossil fuel divestment has ‘zero’ climate impact, says Bill Gates

#251

Post by jpttsn » Sat, Sep 21, 2019, 3:29 PM UTC

gbrown wrote: post #250

jpttsn wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thing you greatly underestimate the cost of these ineffective actions. Using non-recyclable paper straws, selling my oil shares to someone else, etc. make me feel like I’ve done my part, and I’ll happily kick back for the rest of the day, week, year. After all, I have the dinner party bragging rights covered. Buying a letter of salvation from the Church is not the way to kick-start a streak of meaningful good-doing…

That's an intersting hypothesis, but that's all it is. Is there actually science about whether the effect of increased consciousness is cancelled out by corresponding complacency? Let me offer an alternative, also unsubstantiated hypothesis: it's tempting to use cynicism to reject small actions, and letting the perfect be the enemy of the good ends up harming efforts to make big change. Also, it seems crazy to me to…

I’m not aware of any “science” on this, it’s gut level for me. Was TFA unconvincing?

If you usually need hard numbers to disprove the effectiveness of treatment, be sure to stay away from homeopaths.

Re: Fossil fuel divestment has ‘zero’ climate impact, says Bill Gates

#252

Post by gbrown » Mon, Sep 23, 2019, 3:41 PM UTC

jpttsn wrote: post #251

gbrown wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's an intersting hypothesis, but that's all it is. Is there actually science about whether the effect of increased consciousness is cancelled out by corresponding complacency? Let me offer an alternative, also unsubstantiated hypothesis: it's tempting to use cynicism to reject small actions, and letting the perfect be the enemy of the good ends up harming efforts to make big change. Also, it seems crazy to me to…

I’m not aware of any “science” on this, it’s gut level for me. Was TFA unconvincing? If you usually need hard numbers to disprove the effectiveness of treatment, be sure to stay away from homeopaths.

There's no scientifically justified causal basis for homeopathy, and well powered trials investigating it have repeatedly returned null results - that's pretty conclusive evidence against it in my book. In contrast, we have examples of consumer movements which led to regulatory or policy change, with or without the use of social stigma.

I didn't find the article convincing, because I don't think Gates is looking at the right metrics. I agree with him that I don't expect to see carbon impacts to divestment right now, even a little bit. What I expect is that divestment (especially by institutional investors) will lower the barriers to heavy handed regulation in the future, and is a useful additional dimension to get people engaged in the climate fight now. Simply accepting "we all should just give up and not worry that we're invested in fossil fuels via our retirement accounts" is counter-intuitive to me.

Re: Fossil fuel divestment has ‘zero’ climate impact, says Bill Gates

#253

Post by sideshowb » Thu, Sep 26, 2019, 11:01 AM UTC

kerkeslager wrote: post #223

sideshowb wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The managers bear ultimate responsibility for continuing the actions which investors dislike.

But divestors aren't investors any more. I really find it hard to believe that someone would be fired for doing fossil fuel company things at a fossil fuel company because of divestment.

The threat is that more existing investors might divest.

Some of the fossil fuel companies are putting significant investment into 2nd generation biofuels, I guess because they have the potential to leverage existing infrastructure. But possibly also because they care what divestors think.