Can We Survive the Next Financial Crisis? • Hacker News Board

Re: Can We Survive the Next Financial Crisis?

#251

Post by betterunix2 » Tue, Sep 11, 2018, 2:29 AM UTC

travisoneill1 wrote: post #92

clairity wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

no, the wealthy keep their capital in assets with above average returns. the rest of us get to pay for that with below average returns, fees, and inflation.

Yes that would explain them being rich. But I'm sure you have heard the phrase "Past performance is no guarantee of future results." What I am talking about here is debt. Owe money on your house? Inflation makes you owe less. Lend money to someone buying a house? Inflation means you get paid back less.

Inflation is typically priced into loans in the form of higher interest rates; this is why bond prices fall (i.e. yields rise) when the inflation rate increases (or more precisely, when people believe inflation will be higher in the future). Also priced in is the uncertainty about future inflation, which is one reason why central banks work to maintain a stable rate of inflation.

Re: Can We Survive the Next Financial Crisis?

#252

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Sep 11, 2018, 2:34 AM UTC

pjmorris wrote: post #240

noobermin wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The working poor did not vote for Trump more than they didn't vote. But even if you break down the vote by income, more wealthy folk voted for Trump and poorer people voted for Clinton, but more importantly, most of them didn't vote because they reckoned that neither choice affected them. I never understood this argument that poor people voted in Trump especially because it does square with exit poll data. I do think…

Could you provide some citations for your claims (e.g. 'poorer people voted for Clinton')? If you do, I'll go look up my old sources. It's been awhile, but I came away with the impression that economic hardship was one of the drivers behind the election result.

[deleted]

Re: Can We Survive the Next Financial Crisis?

#253

Post by yardie » Tue, Sep 11, 2018, 2:35 AM UTC

Nelson69 wrote: post #172

crazynick4 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have an extreme health care incident, why pay the bill? Sure it would hurt your credit score not to, but if it's between that and tens/hundreds of thousands, I think it is worth it to take the hit for 7 years. I know health care workers who give this 'unofficial' advice to their patients and I've had friends and family members do the same thing - people who had no health insurance but still got health care and…

This is slightly off topic, but I'll ask. I refinanced my house and as part of the process I get copies of the credit reports pulled. Anyone know why they last a lot longer than 7 years? It has all my mailing addresses for over 20 years. They asked me about a student loan I had paid off 10+ years prior. Is the "7 year" thing just a myth?

It can stay on there indefinitely but they can only use the last 7 years. They can ask about that 10+ year debt but you’re under no obligation to answer it.

Re: Can We Survive the Next Financial Crisis?

#254

Post by spacehome » Tue, Sep 11, 2018, 2:38 AM UTC

beaconstudios wrote: post #218

vkou wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If defaulting on a debt is fraud, then why do lenders charge a premium for credit risk? They do it because, in most cases, it is not fraud - defaults are just a fact of business. Being a lender is not a ticket to free, zero-risk money. Both parties in a lender/borrower transaction understand that there is a risk of default, as well as consequences for a default. In a secured loan, the borrower loses the secured item.…

of course, but my interpretation of OP's comment was that they went into a purchase with the intent of defaulting. To me, that's fraudulent - IANAL but that would seem to be legally fraud too. It's really no different from chargeback scams.

It's only fraud if you take out the loan with the intention of not repaying it. sigfubar never says when he came to the conclusion that repaying the loan is a bad idea. If it's any point after he took out the loan, it's not fraud.

Re: Can We Survive the Next Financial Crisis?

#255

Post by sizzle » Tue, Sep 11, 2018, 2:39 AM UTC

sigfubar wrote: post #182

jandrese wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just the 7 years on your credit score, it's having collection agencies hound you incessantly. It's having people constantly trying to scam your bank to drain your account. It is legal threats against you, your family, your friends, your employer, etc... You're basically dropping you bloody name to a pool of sharks who have little respect for what is legal or ethical.

What does it mean to be "hounded" by collection agencies? I've allowed some of my debts to go unpaid because I considered repayment to be a poor deal. Yes, I've received phone calls, which I answered and calmly informed the caller that (a) the conversation was being recorded; and (b) this was the last time they called me because I was invoking the FDCPA. I've never had to repeat this more than twice. Yes, I've receiv…

You would really shoot them if they just rang your doorbell? Or do they try to enter your home and arrest you? Why such drastic measures?

Re: Can We Survive the Next Financial Crisis?

#256

Post by darawk » Tue, Sep 11, 2018, 2:43 AM UTC

cm2187 wrote: post #219

darawk wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It pushes the correlation between stocks up. Citation needed. I seriously doubt that this is true. > And also it reduces discrimination between stocks which results in weaker stocks benefiting from just being in the index and being overpriced. Not really. Retail investors allocating their money to index funds just leaves the price-setting power to the professionals, which, on net, ought to be better for price disco…

First result on google: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-09/asia-stoc... But it is kind of intuitive anyway. ETFs are becoming significant in volumes, so when net volumes buy or sell them, they force the sponsor to buy/sell the whole market reducing price discrimination. To have any price setting power you need large volumes.

I don't see anything in that article that supports your point. Can you snippet out the part that you think does?

Re: Can We Survive the Next Financial Crisis?

#257

Post by darawk » Tue, Sep 11, 2018, 2:44 AM UTC

toss1 wrote: post #214

darawk wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, true. My point is just that indexing has nothing to do with Amazon's meteoric rise. Nor does it make the market less efficient or any other such nonsense.

Yes, I'd guess the effect in the single-digit percentages, and being in the index didn't help GE not get dumped. Interesting question about market inefficiencies. Again, while they're not zero, I'd guesstimate them to be in the minor percentages... If Amazon suddenly adjusts their R&D spend to show the massive profit of which they're capable, or does a massive increase to go after a new market, I'd expect it to go up…

Ya, if I had to guess at an effect I think that'd be it too. It ought to dampen hysteria, by keeping retail investors out of the market for the most part.

Re: Can We Survive the Next Financial Crisis?

#258

Post by adiusmus » Tue, Sep 11, 2018, 2:50 AM UTC

TearsInTheRain wrote: post #190

headmelted wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still though (and correct me if I'm wrong), but if you get sick tomorrow with some ailment for which treatment is complex (and therefore expensive) AND you don't have insurance - your options are to find the money or go bankrupt? That's nuts in 2018 in a wealthy democracy.

Why is that nuts? Honestly it seems kind of nuts that someone would expect another person to pick up their tab

Maybe.

Chapter 7 bankruptcy (?) is probably the only way forward for most folks after a certain point.

I’m not sure what I’d do if I was presented with a $150k bill for snake bite. https://www.wideopencountry.com/actual-cost-rattlesnake-bite...

I’m fairly sure the US health system is broken, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/09/09/the-c...

The prices aren’t even related to cost of materials or time or even linked to inflation. Maybe patents or research costs are included, maybe not. It’s all a game between hospitals and financial companies.

Sort of like student loans...

Re: Can We Survive the Next Financial Crisis?

#259

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Sep 11, 2018, 3:21 AM UTC

wiz21c wrote: post #70

oihoaihsfoiahsf wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, the banks were part of the cause. That is not in dispute, as you can see by reading my previous comments. But they would not have been able to commit their fraud without the aid of credulous buyers willing to purchase far more house than they could afford. That's all I'm saying.

>>> without the aid of credulous buyers or with the aid of people with that necessary skill needed to convince regular people to do something only credulous people would do. What was the name of that skill,... hmm... isn't it "manipulation" or "marketing" ? You see, if someone's is going to make a mistake, I tend to help him by preventing him to do so. I don't give him the pen to sign its destiny.

[deleted]

Re: Can We Survive the Next Financial Crisis?

#260

Post by m3kw9 » Tue, Sep 11, 2018, 3:22 AM UTC

Just because is human nature to think history could repeat itself, he is looking at the next crisis from a similar angle, which is implying lighting striking twice. I would look at polical or after shocks from a melt down from another super power.