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‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

nytimes.com

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Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#251

Post by jessaustin »

voice_of_reason wrote: post #179
qubex wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m impressed by your post’s combination of cynicism and conspiracy-theory-type reasoning, compounded by the agency fallacy.

Your Pavlovially conditioned denigration of quite believable assumption that some entities have huge amount of influence on the economy is even more impressive. Never tired of employing good old "it's a conspiracy theory" conversation stopper, do you?

You have to cut the young ones some slack on this. They're just modeling what they see from "those in the know", and the conventional wisdom narrative has been really heavy on conspiracy-shaming over the last few years. When they're older they'll see that there are other ways to discuss current events.

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#252

Post by jessaustin »

gepoch wrote: post #186
hestefisk wrote: post #176

Someone should A) run a neural network across thousands of historical economic / financial metrics and find the best predictor B) ?????? C) Profit!!!

B is where you overfit your model and D is where oops actually we didn't profit :(

Do you imply that someone has tried this before?!

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#253

Post by jadedhacker »

bla2 wrote: post #241
jadedhacker wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did that for a while until I became completely disillusioned with them. They're in the pocket of corporations and the White House (they actually suppress news if the WH doesn't like it). Find a more progressive outlet than them if you want to pay for media. They can certainly use the cash. EDIT: Here's a recent case of NYT suppressing newsworthy clips: https://theintercept.com/2018/06/20/administration-of-hate-t...…

I am pretty disillusioned with them too, and they do push an agenda in many areas (pro-military, anti-tech, etc). I loathe their opinion pages, they're a weird mix of bland and constantly pseudo-outraged. But I still like lots of stuff they create and a subscription isn't super expensive, so paying seems like the right thing to me personally. I'm just reading a newspaper, not looking for someone to marry. (I wouldn't…

Yea I knock on them for the same reasons, but when the topic isn't of national interest, they have some excellent story tellers and reporters. Their digital remixes are great too (e.g. Snowfall and its intellectual children).

Nonetheless, as my perspective evolved, I realized I can't countenance supporting them when they endorsed actual evil like the Iraq War and perpetuate so many things wrong in society. They'll always let you down when it counts, so I don't see a reason to be there for them when it doesn't.

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#254

Post by Sophistifunk »

Can anybody ELI5? It seems to me that having the long-term bonds at a similar ratio would mean good predictions? Wouldn't the rates have to be higher if trouble is coming, in order to make the increased risk of a longer term bond worth it?

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#255

Post by mistermann »

fjsolwmv wrote: post #245
mistermann wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And people are using it today as "proof" to support their preferred flavor of an economic system. Anyone who's been even an armchair observer of economics for 20+ years should know well how silly these conversations can get. Just as one unimportant example: Bond vigilantes used to be a term you'd encounter regularly, when's the last time you heard it now?

Is that because the concept is bad, or because the conditions for it haven't been present in a while? https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/09/bond-vigilantes-saddled-up-a...

Those are two possibilities. Another is that the government is the biggest player in the bond market and has unlimited funds at their disposal that they can categorize as Other.

But of course, that's illegal, so it would never happen would it. But at the same time, you and me will never, ever, hear from the bond vigilantes again.

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#256

Post by crb002 »

It depends if Trump tariffs raise enough tax revenue to offset deficit spending and curb inflation. Like to see the tariff revenue numbers at the end of the next quarter.

The potential upside is that tariffs are stress testing industries with supply chain issues, shaking out mal-investment.

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#257

Post by [deleted] »

Fnoord wrote: post #208
timr wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a fact, folks. Downvoting doesn't change it, and you don't get to have opinions about it. If you believe the stock market guarantees you safe returns, you are wrong. No matter what strategy you use, no matter what outlook you choose, you can lose money in the stock market . Don't invest what you can't afford to lose.

> Downvoting doesn't change it, and you don't get to have opinions about it. You wrote: > Did you even read the link? [..] Which is against HN netiquette: "Please don't insinuate that someone hasn't read an article. "Did you even read the article? It mentions that" can be shortened to "The article mentions that."" [1] [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

[deleted]

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#258

Post by timr »

Fnoord wrote: post #208
timr wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a fact, folks. Downvoting doesn't change it, and you don't get to have opinions about it. If you believe the stock market guarantees you safe returns, you are wrong. No matter what strategy you use, no matter what outlook you choose, you can lose money in the stock market . Don't invest what you can't afford to lose.

> Downvoting doesn't change it, and you don't get to have opinions about it. You wrote: > Did you even read the link? [..] Which is against HN netiquette: "Please don't insinuate that someone hasn't read an article. "Did you even read the article? It mentions that" can be shortened to "The article mentions that."" [1] [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

I've been watching every comment on this thread wildly fluctuate for the entire day, and most have no style violations of any sort. People simply don't want to believe facts, and they're expressing their displeasure with the down arrow.

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#259

Post by bcuzDonvotes »

fao_ wrote: post #236
Johnny555 wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is "rekt"?

The illiterate (i.e. 'l33t') form of 'wrecked', I believe.

Also, a memetic allusion to shock/gore imagery and videos, especially those where people are horrifically mutilated by accidents or violence.

Emerging into common use across and throughout The Internet circa 2014.

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#260

Post by AngryData »

jpao79 wrote: post #161
simonsarris wrote: post #73

People often note, like another comment here notes: > since 1960 there has been a US economic recession once every 5 to 10 years. The last one ended in 2009, 9 years ago This is an interesting line of thinking, but I think it's a mistake. We can use this fact itself and circumscribe some meta-thinking around it. Put the same fact another way, this is arguing that the 1960's started a brand new paradigm that was mater…

So some random thoughts on the case for this time its actually different are: 1.) The internet and computing has increased the flow of information. Investments in data mining and data science by the Fed lets it make better decisions and test stuff iteratively and react to changes faster. Companies can also track inventory in a more controlled manner and not build too much too fast. Employees can find prevailing wage…

There is still a large human component that can act irradicatly, ignorantly, or just straight up abuse more information for personal benefit, especially if other people or industries are lagging behind the changes in technology and information.
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