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After the end of the startup era

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Re: After the end of the startup era

#251
post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That might just be because you are getting older and value your time more. I used to try every new app, every new service. I used to run Linux on my desktop. Doing those things was fun and challenging, but took time. I have kids now. I value spending time with them over fiddling with the latest app or spending an hour tuning my kernel so I can run my window manager at max resolution. I use a Mac and it just does that…

You don't need to customize your software every month. I haven't customized my configs for over 3 years now. I am running linux and it is a one-time effort.

No offense, but that's kind of the fun of linux on the desktop.

Also, if you really haven't updated in three years, that means that you're still running kernel 3.16, which has 81 known vulnerabilities[0], 12 of which are critical. That's the kind of stuff I don't really want to worry about anymore.

[0] https://www.cvedetails.com/vulnerability-list/vendor_id-33/p...

Re: After the end of the startup era

#252
post #42

I look at it from another end - I feel there is a sort of an app fatigue. Maybe it is jut me. I used to be excited about Uber-like things, note taking apps, DropBox, coupon sites, review sites. Installed some of them, used them, then kind of stopped. Someone at work would say "you should try this new thing, totally cool" and I'd be inclined to do it, but now would pass it probably. Extrapolating scientifically from t…

>>I look at it from another end - I feel there is a sort of an app fatigue.

For all practical purposes, the early start up riches are now gone. And there is also a degree of low hanging fruit value, that gets taken early in the stage of any industry. First movers have had that advantage. After that you can have a lot of small companies providing value to small niche places, but the big money value is now taken.

Every once in a while you will have some nice idea that comes along and will get big, but those will exception rather being the rule.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#253
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI is some applied math. But as applied math goes, AI is only a tiny fraction, nearly absurdly narrow, and not very impressive. There's a lot more good applied math to be brought forward to exploit the recent fantastic hardware.

Can you give some examples of applied math sub fields that haven't been exploited to their fullest? I'm genuinely interested.

Statistical hypothesis tests: Commonly calculations to predict something have two ways to be wrong (A) predict it will happen when it doesn't and (B) predict it won't happen when it does. Then in the context of a statistical hypothesis test, get to address the probabilities of A and B and how to adjust the test to get the combination of A, B like best or get a better test that will give better combinations. If have enough data, then the classic Neyman-Pearson result says how to get the best test. The proof is like investing in real estate: First buy the property with the highest ROI. Then the next highest, etc. until out of money. That's crude but not really wrong. I have a fancy proof based on the Hahn decomposition from the Radon-Nikodym theorem. Well, statistical hypothesis tests are being seriously neglected.

E.g., some tests are distribution-free. And for other tests, will want to make good use of multi-dimensional data, e.g., not just, say, blood pressure or blood sugar level but both of those two jointly. Well, I'm the inventor of the first, and a large, collection of statistical hypothesis tests that are both distribution-free and multidimensional. That work is published, powerful, valuable, but neglected. I did the work for better zero-day detection of anomalies in high end server farms and networks. So, I got a real statistical hypothesis tests, e.g., know the false alarm rate and get to adjust it and get that rate exactly in practice. IMHO, my work totally knocked the socks off the work our group had been doing on that problem with expert systems using data on thresholds. Also, the core math is nothing like what is most popular in AI/ML now and as far as I know nothing like anything even in small niches of AI/ML now.

Once I was asked to predict revenue. We knew the present revenue, and from our planned capacity knew our maximum, target revenue. So, roughly had to interpolate between those two. So, how might that go? Well, assume that the growth is mostly from current happy customers talking to people who are target customers but not customers yet. Let t denote time, in, say, days. At time t, let y(t) be the revenue, in, say, dollars, at time t. Let b be the revenue at full capacity. Let the present be time t = 0 so that the present revenue is y(0). Then the rate of growth should be, first-cut, ballpark, proportional to both the number of customers talking or y(t) and the number of target customers listening or (b - y(t). Of course the rate of growth is the calculus first derivative of y(t) or

d/dt y(t) = y'(t)

Then for some constant of proportionality k, we must have

y'(t) = k y(t) (b - y(t))

Yes, just from freshman calculus, there is a closed form solution. I'm guessing that the solution is a logistic curve. So, the growth starts slowly, climbs quickly as an exponential, and then grows slowly again as it approaches b asymptotically from below. So, get a lazy S curve. So, it's a model of viral growth. Get the whole curve with minimal data, just y(0), b, and the guess for k. The curve looks a lot like growth of several important products, e.g., TV sets. I derived this and used it to save FedEx. For all the interest in viral growth, there should be more interest in that little derivation.

There is the huge field of optimization -- linear, integer linear, network integer linear (gorgeous stuff, especially with the Cunningham strongly feasible ideas), multi-objective linear, quadratic non-linear, non-linear via the Kuhn-Tucker necessary conditions, convex, dynamic, optimal control, etc. optimization. It is a well developed field with a lot known. I've made good attacks on at least three important problems in optimization, via stochastic optimal control, network integer linear programming, and 0-1 integer linear programming via Lagrangian relaxation and attempted several more where ran into too much in politics. Sadly the great work in optimization is neglected in practice.

The world is awash in stochastic processes, but they are neglected in practice. E.g., once for the US Navy, I dug into Blackman and Tukey, got smart on power spectral estimation, IIRC important for cases of filtering, explained to the Navy the facts of life, helped their project, and got a sole source development contract for my company.

The crucial core of my startup is some applied math I derived based on some advanced pure/applied math prerequisites.

And there is a huge body of brilliant work with beautifully done theorems and proofs that can be used to get powerful, valuable new results for particular problems.

Computers are now really good at doing what we tell them to do. Well, IMHO, for what we should tell them to do that isn't just obvious is nearly all from applied math.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#254
post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need to customize your software every month. I haven't customized my configs for over 3 years now. I am running linux and it is a one-time effort.

No offense, but that's kind of the fun of linux on the desktop. Also, if you really haven't updated in three years, that means that you're still running kernel 3.16, which has 81 known vulnerabilities[0], 12 of which are critical. That's the kind of stuff I don't really want to worry about anymore. [0] https://www.cvedetails.com/vulnerability-list/vendor_id-33/p...

Long time (but not very religious about it) Linux user here.

What operating system allows you to "not worry about" OS security updates, and how is it different from Linux?

Re: After the end of the startup era

#255

This article is using false assumptions about AI to back up its narrative. "AI doesn’t just require top-tier talent; that talent is all but useless without mountains of the right kind of data. And who has essentially all of the best data? That’s right: the abovementioned Big Five, plus their Chinese counterparts Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu." Making the next quantum leaps in AI is not a question of data advantages. 1)…

1) That's false. AlphaGo did not just train by self-play. It trained on millions of pre-played games, and the bot also uses hand-engineered features for their MCTS hybrid (best) model. Refer to their paper for details. 2) Read the article that you are referencing please. What you are implying is not the thesis of that article nor is it what Geoffrey Hinton is saying. What Hinton is saying is, we should throw out deep…

Sorry, but you are incorrect on both accounts.

1) AlphaGo Zero was indeed trained in the way I mention.

2) As directly quoted from the article, Hinton believes that a better way of learning doesn't require all that labeled data. If such a method is invented, as is required to push AI forward, big corporations would not have a data advantage, which is my original point.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#256
Even ignoring "AI, drones, AR/VR, cryptocurrencies, self-driving cars, and IoT" from the article, there are still two big areas still in its infancy:

1. Rich web apps - We know Gmail, Gdocs, Salesforce, etc are/have taken over from desktop apps. I'm continuously discovering more, e.g. Figma. Basically anything that was a single-user desktop app can be made into a realtime collaborative networked one.

2. Mobile business apps - Yes we have mobile versions of business web apps but these are typically as useful as responsive web apps which drop critical features needing to resort to a poor [x] request desktop app experience. What is needed is to create apps which make full use of what works on mobile. Speech input, gestures, what have you. Just as PCs took over from centralized computers, and web from OSes, future computing will be more mobile and ubiquitous. Current apps are translations of desktop/web ideas. We have a long way to go to making great mobile ones. The many significant discoveries and inventions along the way will come from both large and smaller contributors.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#257

This article is using false assumptions about AI to back up its narrative. "AI doesn’t just require top-tier talent; that talent is all but useless without mountains of the right kind of data. And who has essentially all of the best data? That’s right: the abovementioned Big Five, plus their Chinese counterparts Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu." Making the next quantum leaps in AI is not a question of data advantages. 1)…

I think the conclusion may still be sound despite the reasoning. It may not be a "data advantages" question, but it is still almost surely going to be a question of human capital -- and the only places likely able to afford the talent & operational costs are going to be "Big N" companies. There is a tremendous amount of human expertise involved in the advancements we're seeing in AI. AlphaGo Zero is the product of in…

I was mostly disputing the claim about data advantages, which often gets thrown around willy nilly to favor big corporations, because it fundamentally goes against the nature of where AI is heading.

I am not disputing that having more financial resources would help anyone hire talent and build awesome infrastructure, and certainly the latest way of training AlphaGo Zero was aided by earlier experiments that relied on labeled data and extensive computational effort. However, by no means do I think big corps have a lock on these kinds of advancements. There will always be great people who would rather go the startup route, and both algorithmic and hardware advancements are drastically reducing the operational cost of training AI systems. Thus, when it comes to AI, I think very small teams will be able to get very far with the right approach.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#258
post #247
post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, Gusto is a big win IMO. Payroll stuff sucks, especially for early stage businesses. I've used all the services over the past 15 years, my current company is using Gusto, still sucks, but sucks the least, best price, best service. And 1000s of small businesses trust Gusto to process millions of dollars of their most sacred money each month. Underrated.

Zenpayroll was great! Gusto sucks. And the change took place right around the time of the name change. Now, both Gusto and Zenefits are trying to play the same game and both are basically parasitic companies feeding off lock-in and transaction fees.

Which payroll and benefits providers make their money a different way?

Re: After the end of the startup era

#259

Reminds me of what got me to this site many years ago. I was reading a lisp programming book that had a footnote that somehow got me to HN. As a teenager I got enamoured by the idea of the future of the tech being driven by small fast-moving hacker friendly companies rather than big corp, as portrayed in PG's writings and this site. I remember how I increasingly became disillusioned as I gradually realized that many…

Agreed. Working for a company that optimizes for cashing out loses luster really quickly. As someone who's been on that hamster wheel for too long, have to say it'd definitely be more interesting to work for a company that builds for long-term sustainability.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#260
post #42

I look at it from another end - I feel there is a sort of an app fatigue. Maybe it is jut me. I used to be excited about Uber-like things, note taking apps, DropBox, coupon sites, review sites. Installed some of them, used them, then kind of stopped. Someone at work would say "you should try this new thing, totally cool" and I'd be inclined to do it, but now would pass it probably. Extrapolating scientifically from t…

That might just be because you are getting older and value your time more. I used to try every new app, every new service. I used to run Linux on my desktop. Doing those things was fun and challenging, but took time. I have kids now. I value spending time with them over fiddling with the latest app or spending an hour tuning my kernel so I can run my window manager at max resolution. I use a Mac and it just does that…

Installing Linux is takes no more time is in anyway more complicated than installing Windows. Even installing Ubuntu on my laptop was a simple affair (including having the wifi work right away, in the installer).

What you've said may have been true several years ago, but it isn't anymore.

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