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More Americans Are Falling Behind on Student Loans, and Nobody Quite Knows Why

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251–260 of 298 posts

Re: More Americans Are Falling Behind on Student Loans, and Nobody Quite Knows Why

#251

I firmly believe that university is way, way overpriced in a world of free, high quality MOOCs. It just makes zero economic sense and I believe the market will correct this sooner or later. Think about how utterly inefficient it all is: you have hundreds of professors around the world, each mechanically teaching the same subject semester after semester to new students (I know, they do a bit more than that). Some will…

Quite the opposite!

> According to a visualization of MOOC completion rates assembled by Katy Jordan (2013), the 50 investigated MOOCs have generated 50.000 enrollments on average, with the typical completion rate hovering below 10%. Put it somewhere around 7.5%, or 3.700 completions per 50.000 enrollments. Meyer (2012) reported that the dropout rates of MOOCs offered by Stanford, MIT and UC Berkley were 80-95%. For example, only 7% of the 50.000 students completed who took the Coursera-UC-Berkeley course in Software Engineering. There is a similar reported dropout rate in Coursera’s Social Network Analysis class where only 2% of participants earned a basic certificate and 0.17% earned the higher level programming with distinction certificate.

MOOCs are not the solution.

Matter of fact, MOOCs turned out to be the counterfactual that clearly illustrate the depth of problems we have with education - and more importantly re-training.

MOOCs are in so many ways ideal. When Khan academy lectures were first made available online, I had huge hopes for the future of education and therefore humanity.

Education/re-training is a critical lynch pin of the modern model of economic development.

Innovation -> job loss -> retraining -> people return to well paying jobs.

But it turns out, that this was not happening, and that education and training is a lot harder than anticipated.

MOOCs had it all - convenience (always on the net), not time constrained (you can read/watch classes whenever), accessible (taught by the good teachers), high quality (same teacher, able to use visual and other aids) and self-selected by people who wanted to finish the course.

They should have been a massive success.

The self-selected, interested student part should alone, have resulted in large numbers of newly trained students.

It hasn't. Which meant the importance of those factors in educational results was overstated.

This also means, that our current education system, may well be the better state of the art option we have.

OR worse, a large chunk of humanity may not be able to transition to new subjects, and therefore new roles.

This is a huge bloody problem, because that means if coal miners lose jobs, the economy will stall.

This in turn puts huge political pressure to avoid following economics, and instead fight for protectionism, which also doesn't work.

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Side note/silver lining: Perhaps the intransingence of education is a good thing.

If it becomes easier to teach a person how to learn X details, perhaps it can become a lot easier to also indoctrinate a person in Y religion, or belief.

In the end, a technique which has a high success rate in teaching students X subject, could easily be used to teach any subject.

The difficulty in teaching people could well be a natural impediment to mass scale conversion, or invasion of ideas/propaganda.

Re: More Americans Are Falling Behind on Student Loans, and Nobody Quite Knows Why

#252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where do you get a 9-5 job that pays $25/hr without going to college? I know adjunct professors that get paid less than that.

That's the median starting salary for a lot of places. I was actually speaking to a UPS driver about how that was his starting salary..

UPS drivers don't start out as drivers. You have to work your way up from package handling to get to that point. $25/hr isn't reasonable for any entry level job with no college degree requirement. Even a skilled trade like an electrician still requires training and apprenticeships. You might not be going to college but it's going to take just as long to become a journeyman in whatever trade you are looking at.

Re: More Americans Are Falling Behind on Student Loans, and Nobody Quite Knows Why

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is an interesting anecdote, delivered with lots of confidence. However, despite the just-so manner you delivered it, I don't see a compelling argument. For starters, the CPI isn't calculated in an opaque manner; it's explained here: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf . The costs that are increasing for most Americans are housing, healthcare, and education costs. Yet over 40% of American households own…

> The directors of the Federal Reserve, if they had some secret interest in tricking everyone, wouldn't be flatly admitting they consider why inflation isn't hitting targets a "mystery." [2] So you're saying these people with all the humility required to announce they have solved economic crises for at least a lifetime [1] wouldn't lie or deceive themselves ? I wouldn't make that point. Seems unlikely that hubris lik…

What if they are lying to spur market optimism? It could become self reinforcing.

Re: More Americans Are Falling Behind on Student Loans, and Nobody Quite Knows Why

#254
post #108

I hate sounding both old and weird but I cannot shake the feeling that much of the claims of economic health and growth in the US is... if not fake (I’m not totally nuts) but not accurate. My most charitable interpretation if I’m right is that we’re using the wrong metrics (possibly intentionally) that give a distorted view of the economy. But I keep hearing employment is great, productivity is great, stock market is…

Let me add this to your theory (which btw I agree with). Fracking! It was allowed to hockey stick - despite the ecological damage - because without historically low fuel prices the US economy would be into the weeds. Ultra-cheap fuels is a (temporary?) fix to hide plenty of ills. Keep in mind, much of the hockey stick'ing happened under Obama, who was and still is perceived to be a green prez. Yet no one has really s…

This is my current hypothesis. Been too lazy to look at the figures though.

Re: More Americans Are Falling Behind on Student Loans, and Nobody Quite Knows Why

#255
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Free" is covered by taxes already paid. So making university "free" would be an additional tax. But instead of the attendees paying for them directly, the pay would be spread out. Also, it would change the dynamic of which school you could attend. High School is covered based on taxes in the town paid for by property owners. Some university programs are subsidized by state taxes (like SUNY for New York) and are disc…

No, "Free" is covered by printing money which the government does all the time (where does it get money for billions of dollars in military increases? It just appears out of nowhere, handed to military contractors). Taxes are to manage the amount of US dollars in circulation and to constantly create demand for them after the services are created and money is printed.

[deleted]

Re: More Americans Are Falling Behind on Student Loans, and Nobody Quite Knows Why

#256

Banging my head against the table. Wages and benefits are too low, tuition is too high, cost of living is too high, and student loans are a scam. Tuition is a scam. http://studentdebtcrisis.org/ The rent is too damn high! ;)

It's a rentier economy, by and for. Just don't actually tell anyone or you'll be labeled a crank.

Re: More Americans Are Falling Behind on Student Loans, and Nobody Quite Knows Why

#257

This one is easy. People are buying things that they can't afford. Throwing it into a loan and then partying their way through school. Since that worked out so well, then they do that with their car, house, furniture, cell phones, and car rims. You aren't entitled to 100,000 dollar education. You aren't entitled to go down to Mexico every spring break. you aren't entitled to eat pizza and hit the bar every weekend. Y…

Thanks, dad.

Re: More Americans Are Falling Behind on Student Loans, and Nobody Quite Knows Why

#258
post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>But I keep hearing employment is great, productivity is great, stock market is great The question you have to ask is, who are you hearing this from? The answer is: people with a vested interest in making you believe the economy is doing great, or people fooled into believing this by those with a vested interest. I suggest you closely examine the metrics used by those who claim the "economy is great". First these met…

"Hedonic adjustment" is meant to control for the 'quality' of some (limited) products sampled in the CPI such as rent, computers and automobiles. 'quality-adjusted' means that they run a standard linear regression across the features of sampled items to normalize the variation in the sample. For example, the sampled rent of apartments would be modeled as (in the simplest example I can think of) : y = rent, b = slope,…

Your equation does not make sense to me. Is b really a slope (* instead of +?) or an intercept (seems simpler to have a "k*x" term than pretending that "k=1")?

Re: More Americans Are Falling Behind on Student Loans, and Nobody Quite Knows Why

#259

Why have MOOCs provided no real competition?

Turns out that accountability is easier on a campus than remotely.

Well, that and the fact that the lower barrier to entry might incentivize trying-out of subjects. I know I have.

Re: More Americans Are Falling Behind on Student Loans, and Nobody Quite Knows Why

#260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never thought of it that way. I don't know if there wouldn't be some second or third order issues from something like this, but at first glance this seems like a good idea. Why shouldn't the school take on some of the risk?

The schools could decide to take that as justification for jacking up course rates and only taking on students who can bring some assets as collateral for the loan. Or are they in any way incentivized to take on financially less-well-off students? I'm pretty sure they'd always find some way to outsource any costs/risks like that straight back to the students. Also: It's not that much of an open market, schools work v…

"jacking up course rates and only taking on students"

That is totally fine. If student loans become hard to get, students and universities will take prudent decisions, which means, there wont be a bubble effect because of super easy / free availability of loans.

Basically, student loans in US is similar to mortgage crisis in 2008.

US will be better off with unemployable people with no degrees and no debt, than unemployable people with a useless degree and debt.

Without a feedback mechanism for universities to feel the effects of the job market on its graduates/alumni, there's no incentive for university to admit students into its "sub prime programs".

Let the government fund those esoteric programs that have no job prospects. That way the spending on those education programs is visible to the tax payer.

"not well off students" can always have the university take a bigger chunk of the responsibility. While ensuring that there is no bias in admissions, universities will have an even bigger incentive to ensure the success of this 'not well off' student. Such success rates can be tied to the Universities' credit rating. Higher the rating, lower %age risk the edu institution needs to take.

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