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iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

nytimes.com

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Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#251

Apple is the Ford of smartphones. As the auto industry currently stands, the top selling model each year doesn't earn more than 1% of the industry's total revenue. The question is whether smartphones will eventually become similarly fragmented, or if the ecosystem network effect will maintain a "winner take most" effect.

Even with such results the iPhone sells much better than "1% of the industry's total revenue".

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#252
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is something fundamentally wrong with our system that "growth" is used as the main metric for assessing business success. It's growth for the sake of growth (and more $), and not deploying business to solve hard customer problems and to make the world a little bit better.

Every time you buy a stock in the anticipation that its price will rise, or, for that matter, buy VFINX with the expectation that the total value of the S&P 500 will rise, you are putting money on a bet that companies will grow.

Not necessarily. If a company makes a profit, then theoretically so do your shares, whether in terms of share price increase or dividends.

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#253
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

3D Force Touch was one of those features I feel would have only caught on, if it was one of the original iPhone features. Tacking it on later, with little to no support in apps, makes it forgetware. I actually really like the functionality, and I completely forget it exists. There needs to be some type of small indicator reminder that a button HAS 3D touch.

To me its real problem is that it's almost indistinct from long-press. Combine that with Apple's poor UX discoverability (I'm looking at you, swipe-from-the-side-to-see-iMessage-timestamps!) and 3D Touch is basically useless.

(I'm looking at you, swipe-from-the-side-to-see-iMessage-timestamps!)

Wow, that is poor discoverability. Also, thanks so much -- I've been wanting that for ages. I never knew about it.

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#254
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

3D Force Touch was one of those features I feel would have only caught on, if it was one of the original iPhone features. Tacking it on later, with little to no support in apps, makes it forgetware. I actually really like the functionality, and I completely forget it exists. There needs to be some type of small indicator reminder that a button HAS 3D touch.

To me its real problem is that it's almost indistinct from long-press. Combine that with Apple's poor UX discoverability (I'm looking at you, swipe-from-the-side-to-see-iMessage-timestamps!) and 3D Touch is basically useless.

Oh boy, the amount of times I've tried to copy a URL or open a link in a new window... Now I know what's causing this annoyance!

Now how to turn it off...

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#255

It probably doesn't help that the subsidy model has completely changed. But personally, I think iPhone performance has hit a point where one doesn't really feel the need to upgrade right away. I was so ready to upgrade when the contract on my 4 expired. It was really a pain to use after a couple of years. But my 5S has now lasted me two and a half years and other than wishing I had more storage capacity, there's real…

> I think iPhone performance has hit a point where one doesn't really feel the need to upgrade right away I have a cheap 2014 Motorola Moto G and I have the same "problem". Yes, there are hundreds of modern phones out there which are several times faster and have way better hardware but the Moto G is fast enough for me. I usually just browse the web, type a few messages in Whatsapp, take a few pictures, ... and the p…

Yeah, I had a 1st gen Moto G, I think it had comparable value to expensive high-end phones (for people who're not int big screens).

Now I have Nexus 5X, it costs less than half as much as top phones but I think it's actually better, at least for me - clean Android with timely updates, everything is smooth and fast, USB-C, good camera...

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was at a NASA workshop in Mountain View. An informational placard outside had two plots of growth, one with an unchecked exponential curve, and one with a curve that comes up to a peak and goes down. It asked which made more sense as a growth curve. My idealized mathematical self thought, naturally, the exponential growth curve, because it expresses what happens when y-dot equals alpha y. But I asked a passing Calt…

> Physical limits on some aspect of the system must intervene and impose a new law. Just because Apple didn't become the first trillion dollar public company by marketcap (lets assume that chinese bank ipo for a brief second didn't count), doesn't mean that it would have broken a physical limit on the system. There was a time not long ago when 100 billion companies didn't exist and there was a time when private ventu…

Apple is still proportionally smaller than IBM, which achieved like 15% of S&P500 in 1985.

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#257
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is something fundamentally wrong with our system that "growth" is used as the main metric for assessing business success. It's growth for the sake of growth (and more $), and not deploying business to solve hard customer problems and to make the world a little bit better.

That's a big reason why private businesses are better than public ones. There's no need to push for unsustainable growth at the behest of busybody investors.

Busybody investors? They own the company!

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, this is the exact reason I went with a Moto G. It was under $200 and I tend to be very clumsy. It runs the latest nearly stock Andriod and is a very smooth experience. The only fault I can find is it's camera. So for someone who finds that very important this may not be an option.

I'm in the same boat and bought a Moto G, but one major issue is the lack of gyroscope for google cardboard/vr use.

Buy the Moto G 2014 – that has a gyroscope, and can be used with Google Cardboard. The 2015 and 2013 version don’t, though.

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#259
post #108
post #47

Incredible that this is the first time in 13 years that Apple hasn't posted quarterly growth. I'm sure there will be lots of "Apple has lost its ability to innovate" articles based on this, but growing for the last ~52 straight quarters is insane. And I don't think one quarter without growth is enough evidence to conclude "Apple may be reaching the saturation point among potential customers in some countries" or "oth…

There is something fundamentally wrong with our system that "growth" is used as the main metric for assessing business success. It's growth for the sake of growth (and more $), and not deploying business to solve hard customer problems and to make the world a little bit better.

It isn't really lack of growth that's a problem, there are tons of companies out there that post a very consistent profit quarter after quarter that are doing just fine - negative growth, especially in a few of a company's core segments, is just as unsustainable as positive growth year over year is. If you have enough quarters of negative growth, very soon you have nothing. It is a warning sign to investors that things might not be going so well. Is one or two quarters of negative growth bad? Probably not in Apple's case, probably yes in something like AMD's case. The context matters, but there is a reason growth is used as a metric, the market is not stupid.

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#260
post #150
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is something fundamentally wrong with our system that "growth" is used as the main metric for assessing business success. It's growth for the sake of growth (and more $), and not deploying business to solve hard customer problems and to make the world a little bit better.

Even at that, it isn't just about making a profit, it is about making more profit (or often just revenue) each quarter. Your business could be operating at a 40% profit margin that but be called a failure and run against on the stock market when that doesn't become a 41% margin next quarter.

Pure exaggeration.

This is not complicated. You buy with the expectations of future profits X. If the stocks fails to meet those expectations, you reallocate your capital by selling to someone else who is happy with There is nothing nefarious about it. Nobody is a failure. The system isn't broken. This is the free market.

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