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Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

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Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#251

Post by ido »

CalRobert wrote: post #122
epimetheus wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder how much climate is playing a factor in Vancouver's issues. Just from my perspective, I'd love to move to Vancouver, but would never, ever consider Montreal, not because it's not a beautiful city, but because of the harsh winters. Other people don't seem to really care about weather extremes or scenery, etc. I have no insight into these real estate investors dumping money into property, sure if they aren't l…

Keep in mind that some people also like the climate of places like Vancouver. I would count myself among them. I moved from Dublin to San Diego (supposedly known for nice weather, somehow) and the weather here is awful; I can't do anything outside without becoming a sweaty mess 9 months of the year. Apparently it's been like this the last several years in a row, possibly indicating a substantial change in the norm, b…

I moved from Israel to Berlin and love the weather here (somewhere between oceanic and continental).

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#252

Post by [deleted] »

fiatmoney wrote: post #217
gorkemyurt wrote: post #211

One of the main reasons of the housing crisis in the Bay Area is Prop 13 ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_13_(197... ) Prop 13 basically keeps the property taxes constant (or 1% increase) as the value of your house increases (doubles or triples). Your tax gets re-calculated only if you sell your house and the new owner starts paying potentially multiples of what the previous owner has been payin…

Prop 13 has nothing to do with real estate price inflation. If anything, shifting of property tax burdens from long-time homeowners to new homeowners would tend to suppress prices. Shifting that burden evenly across the population would tend to cause more churn as long-time homeowners get pushed out, but would do nothing to increase aggregate housing or lower aggregate prices. Although, you can get pretty far into th…

[deleted]

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#253

Post by smcl »

refurb wrote: post #213
throwaway2048 wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which then allows you to get a passport....

If you move to Canada and maintain residency for X number of years.

So it's not a home run, but it still sounds like a good deal to me - especially if I was an Oligarch keen to put distance between myself and the FSB

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#254

Post by analyst74 »

mahyarm wrote: post #225
lazzlazzlazz wrote: post #150

If having essentially no affordable housing rendered a city an economic ghost town, then much of the Bay area and Manhattan would be "ghost towns" - which, in turn, would lower housing prices radically. What might happen to Vancouver is probably similar to other major cities with housing crunches but an otherwise desirable economic climate: lower wage workers will be displaced further from the city and forced to comm…

As someone who moved from Vancouver to SF 4-5 years ago: 1. You can drive across a bridge to the east bay and find housing that is half price in semi decent neighborhoods. You can drive out for 2 hours and find housing that is the standard american price. In vancouver, driving for an hour just gives you a 100-200k discount on housing that is already over $1 million, there are no real affordable places to escape to un…

"The only thing that makes it pseudo-affordable is the fact that rent is usually half price to a current mortgage."

That is an important point, and why some of my friends moved there despite knowing they won't be able to buy their own place. This also seems quite unique to Vancouver, in most other places, like SF, high housing prices implies high rental prices.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#255

Post by DannyBee »

curveship wrote: post #233
fiatmoney wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prop 13 has nothing to do with real estate price inflation. If anything, shifting of property tax burdens from long-time homeowners to new homeowners would tend to suppress prices. Shifting that burden evenly across the population would tend to cause more churn as long-time homeowners get pushed out, but would do nothing to increase aggregate housing or lower aggregate prices. Although, you can get pretty far into th…

Wouldn't it discourage long-time owners from selling, thereby limiting supply and raising prices?

In theory, yes. In practice, if you own a currently 4+ million dollar home built in the 50's, you are paying at least 15-20k on it anyway.

Here's an example currently for sale:https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Altos-Hills/27446-Black-Mounta...

They are paying 18.2k.

If it was reassessed today, they'd be paying 40-45k.

If they do what most people who have lived in a home forever do, and are downsizing to something smaller (IE kids grew up, whatever), they will likely end up with either the same or less in taxes they pay now.

So it's not like right now they pay nothing, and they'd pay a ton, it's "they pay a lot, they'd pay more".

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#256

Post by michaelt »

gorkemyurt wrote: post #211

One of the main reasons of the housing crisis in the Bay Area is Prop 13 ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_13_(197... ) Prop 13 basically keeps the property taxes constant (or 1% increase) as the value of your house increases (doubles or triples). Your tax gets re-calculated only if you sell your house and the new owner starts paying potentially multiples of what the previous owner has been payin…

  How are property taxes calculated in [...] London?
Properties are assigned to a tax band based on the tax office's assessment of the house's value were it to have been sold in April 1991. Bands vary from A (less than £40,000) to H (more than £320,000).

The council tax ratios between the bands are fixed - so a band A property always pays one third the price of a band H property. The band a house is assigned to is essentially permanent, although you can appeal if it's not in line with equivalent properties in the same area.

This provides certain desirable properties - more expensive properties pay more, but your bill doesn't go up just because house prices in your area go up.

Disadvantages are your tax bill can still go up - just it goes up for everyone by the same percentage; if an area has become much nicer (or less nice) since 1991, the council doesn't make any more (or less) money; and valuations based on a government employee's estimate of a hypothetical sale don't have the idealogical purity needed to really get the support of voters.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#257

Post by narrator »

stanmancan wrote: post #164
jessewmc wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem in Vancouver is the house prices are not driven by economic activity in the city itself. Bay area and Manhattan prices are a product of the local economies. Vancouver prices are a product of speculation and wealthy people who live/have property there but don't work there.

Exactly this. A significant portion of the housing is being bought by foreign investors who don't even live here. Not only is it raising the pricing of the housing, but you don't get the economic benefit of said wealthy individuals living in the city. I recall reading an article about a local coffee shop. A number of new buildings were built around it, all residential condo's. The condo's in the buildings were comple…

This is all the dollars we blew out the trade deficit over the last 30 years coming home to roost. Those houses are essentially physical alternatives to treasury bills that pay zero interest or less with inflation.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#258

Post by mr_november »

hellofunk wrote: post #2

I'm curious how this problem is unique to Vancouver. Berlin's real-estate values have risen some 40% in just the last 7 years or so. New York City, in the 10 years I lived there, had an enormous escalation in what you get for the same rent payment, even adjusted for inflation. Big cities deal with this all over, so how do they deal with this "problem," or is Vancouver somehow unique in other ways?

Low avg income in Vancouver is unique vs the other cities you cite. Much lower. Apparently ~$44k in 2009[1]

[1] http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-est...

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#259

Post by jdkenney »

trgn wrote: post #83
branchless wrote: post #27

Come to Montreal! It's great here. No way would I want to pledge the rest of my life to a bank in exchange for the right to exist. Rent controls here. It's odd: it's like the state understands that banks are bastards. Montreal has some issues with organised crime but nothing compared to the organised crime of banking / money laundering through land. I don't have to pay some gangster $1MM for a shack. Leave the boomer…

I visited Montreal a few years ago. I really really enjoyed it. The city was a great mix. Big enough to wow a hick like me, but also felt accommodating, friendly, and cosy. Great leisurely bicycling next to the river and canals. All the french makes it feel like I'd traveled much further. I also tried making an effort to speak it, and unlike when visiting France, people actually had the good taste (or angelic patienc…

Consider Quebec City as well - it is significantly more romantic for an anniversary occasion!

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#260

Post by btbuildem »

gorkemyurt wrote: post #211

One of the main reasons of the housing crisis in the Bay Area is Prop 13 ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_13_(197... ) Prop 13 basically keeps the property taxes constant (or 1% increase) as the value of your house increases (doubles or triples). Your tax gets re-calculated only if you sell your house and the new owner starts paying potentially multiples of what the previous owner has been payin…

And this has exactly nothing to do with Vancouver..
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