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After the AI Crash

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Re: After the AI Crash

#241
post #72
post #35

It’s not a question of if but when at this point. To parallel to The Big Short this is the point in the movie where folks realize it’s mathematically impossible for things to not implode and so players are quietly positioning themselves for that eventuality before things are allowed to blow. It’s been a dramatic shift these last six months but everywhere I look now folks are quietly preparing their battle armor to su…

How would one position oneself as an individual investor if one believed this thesis?

> How would one position oneself as an individual investor if one believed this thesis?

If you knew when, it would be easy. But nobody knows the when. It might be tomorrow, next week or in 12 months or maybe two years or five. A drop is guaranteed, eventually, but nobody has any idea how much it will go up before that.

If you are truly convinced on this thesis, one could slowly keep increasing short bond allocations while moving away from tech, but no guarantees. Mainly depends how old you are. If very young, don't worry about it, stay invested. If near retirement, move to safer assets because you can't afford to loose everything now.

Re: After the AI Crash

#242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I lived it. I had a teacher in high school continually scold me for reading books on programming languages and banned me from writing essays on the future of computers. Apparently, I should have been outside getting my ass kicked by the jocks like any normal kid would be. Why the guy even called up my parents to express his concerns about me. Or there was the time my 2nd grade teacher contacted my parents because I w…

When ecommerce was getting big, I knew a number of people who thought it was absurd. You can't just send money over the Internet, hackers will steal it! You should use normal payment methods, like writing "fifteen dollars and 56/100------" on a special piece of paper the bank gave you.

> When ecommerce was getting big

When was that?

It was getting huge in the late 90s and we all know now it was indeed the future.

But it still took a huge dot.com crash because the valuations got ahead of the curve.

Re: After the AI Crash

#243
post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When ecommerce was getting big, I knew a number of people who thought it was absurd. You can't just send money over the Internet, hackers will steal it! You should use normal payment methods, like writing "fifteen dollars and 56/100------" on a special piece of paper the bank gave you.

> When ecommerce was getting big When was that? It was getting huge in the late 90s and we all know now it was indeed the future. But it still took a huge dot.com crash because the valuations got ahead of the curve.

In the late 90s. Remember that the first PCI standard wasn't published until 2004; people were largely right to intuit that hackers stealing credit cards was a big problem that wasn't being adequately addressed.

Re: After the AI Crash

#244
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would one position oneself as an individual investor if one believed this thesis?

Not financial advice. The most straightforward thing to do that would have saved you in 2008, 2000 (and even 1929 to some extent), is to limit debt exposure and have enough cash sitting around so you don't have to sell your positions. People who held (and invested more during the low points) did just fine. The people who got hurt the most were in a position where they had to sell (their 401k, their house etc) for a l…

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