[flagged]
moores law ftw
AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
241–250 of 426 posts
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#242Earlier quoted context omitted.
> within a few years we will be running local models as good as today’s frontier models with almost no cost burden Based on what? The RAM requirements alone are extraordinary. No, running large models on shared, dedicated hosted hardware at full utilization is going to be vastly more cost-efficient for the foreseeable future.
I strongly disagree. Humans are so insanely well incentivized here with trillions in market share to make localized AI good enough and that’s the only benchmark they need.
Are they? I don't believe there's that big of a market for local AI. Most people don't care that much, and you'll most likely lose the advertising revenue.
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#243Earlier quoted context omitted.
Isn't that always the case in the early stages of new technology adoption? It becomes less and less true as the new technology becomes more and more integrated. In the first few years after electric motors became a thing, one could have said the same thing. We would have just gone back to steam. If you tried to "do without them" now, society would collapse. So the question is not if we can do without them now, it's i…
The current LLM hype started, what, 5 years ago? It's an industry throwing billions of dollars (and teasing at the word trillions) around. It's had super bowl ads. It's a technology that's being mandated in corporate offices. It's basically the only thing the tech world ever talks about anymore. It's sucked all the air out of the room and occupies the whole stage. Just how "early stage" is that, and how much more int…
> Just how "early stage" is that, and how much more integration does this "new technology" need to be?
Based on the way Claude has felt the last few weeks, I'd say we're about 3-6 months away from full AGI. At that point we can start truly replacing white collar workers in earnest and begin deep integration.
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#244Honestly, this isn't too different from any other software or technology nowadays. "What if the service provider pulls the rug on us and jacks up the price exponentially / begins the enshittification" is (and if you aren't doing it, you should be) a factor when procuring and using anything from a third party anymore.
The software world is, by and large, no longer about making products with a focus on the long-term, whether that's about the customer's well being or even the company's own long-term functioning. It's about trapping people, siphoning their money, then running away after setting the building on fire. Founder McBuilder will throw away his entire userbase and tell them "lol idk good luck" about their usage needs if it means he can make an extra dollar.
This is as true for enterprise as it is for consumers. Look at all the lamenting when a liked name gets bought by venture capital or considers an IPO.
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#245I think I'm going to puke if I see one more "It's not X. It's Y." phrase or the word "load-bearing" used metaphorically.
I hate it. This article starts off well! There is data and it seems well argued, but then halfway through, there it is: example of trend. Another example. Third example. It’s not just X – it’s Y.
It’s as jarring as getting halfway into a well written article, clicking a link to a source, and getting rickrolled.
It’s all you can do to not let it distract you from the fact that in 1998, The Undertaker threw Mankind off Hell In A Cell, and plummeted 16 ft through an announcer's table.
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#246Just as a counter example, Midjourney is completely self funded and profitable. But they are images, LLMs might be more expensive to train but their inference is cheaper.
So the frontier model companies might have crazy valuations and they might never reach that. But that might not mean they are actually unprofitable.
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#247Earlier quoted context omitted.
>running large models on shared, dedicated hosted hardware at full utilization is going to be vastly more cost-efficient for the foreseeable future. That is only true right now because hundreds of billions of dollars are being burned by these AI companies to try to win market share. If you paid what it actually cost, your comment would likely be very different.
No, it's economies of scale and I don't understand where anyone is coming from that thinks they'll be better off buying their own hardware, why would you get a better deal on MATMULs/watt than the cloud providers ?
Within 5-10 years you're going to see a box like one of those AMD Halo nodes running homes.
They'll be controlling lights and temperature, they'll be adding calendar reminders that show up on your phone and your fridge. Your phone and devices might sync pictures and videos there instead of the large cloud providers. They'll also be a media server, able to stream and multiplex whatever content you want through the home. They'll also be a VPN endpoint, likely your home router, maybe also a wifi access point.
I think this makes quite a bit of sense. I don't think they'll be ubiquitous, but they could be.
This distributes the power demand where local solar generation can supplement , gives the home user a lot of control, and claims overship of the user data from big tech.
Maybe I'm imagining things but this is what I think is coming.
It's the lmm/data heart of the home. A useful digital tool.
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#248Earlier quoted context omitted.
Another victim of Goldratt's Theory of Constraints. Some things are more important to optimize for than MATMULs per Watt. What that is I leave as an exercise to the student. May you realize what it is before it is too late.
Some individuals will choose some $10,000 hardware so they can keep freedom and privacy and that's well and good, my point is just that freedom and privacy is not what wins marketshare, and hence, IMHO, local LLMs are not going to catch up and surpass frontier models like some in this thread like to claim
> freedom and privacy is not what wins marketshare
Digital sovereignty laws may mandate/remove access to LLMs of other countries on economic and national security grounds.
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#249[flagged]
> sad dark HN loser path
Assertion assertion assertion wishful thinking assertion.
Show, don't tell. Show us that we're wrong and this isn't a VC black hole. The CEO of Enron as late as September 2001 could've called every critic a sad dark loser with nobody challenging him publicly. Jim Cramer famously yelled anyone pulling their money from Bear Sterns in 2008 was "silly, do not be silly" exactly 8 days before their collapse and a -92% stock drop. In COVID, calling everyone paranoid and sensationalist about some mythical new flu was popular in December 2019 and gone by March 2020. How about Uber, the seeming go-to for how VCs can turn a money hole into a profitable business? The average price increase is now 18% per year and still going up, with an over 60% increase in 5 years. Does anyone still talk about the "sad dark HN loser path" of those who doubted VR in 2018? How's your VR startup doing?
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#250Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sure, but if companies don't exit the market and FOSS alternatives don't end up being unable to get near them in quality, they have to keep spending on training. And conversely, if the market becomes uncompetitive and FOSS sucks, the winners of the AI arms race are very strongly incentivised to stick their prices up anyway...
> if companies don't exit the market and FOSS alternatives don't end up being unable to get near them in quality, they have to keep spending on training Eh, the AI companies still have lots of datacentres. For the guys who funded with equity, they could collapse down to just running those as utilities. (For the guys who funded with debt, they'd have to restructure.) From the customer's perspective, this situation sho…
How often do VC funded unicorns collectively decide to stop scaling up, shut down all their departments targeting growth and reach breakeven point by becoming low margin utilities that will never justify their valuation?