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UAE to leave OPEC

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Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#241

Post by sarjann »

bluGill wrote: post #177

OPEC has long been Saudi Arabia reducing output, and everyone else selling everything they can. They haven't had much power since the 1970s, but that they exist means they are a threat that if everyone else actually stuck to the agreement for a change. This is the common problem for cartels: everyone has inventive to cheat on the deals made. By selling a little more than your share you get more money, while because e…

Isn't the solution in game theory when there are multiple turns to just repeat the move the previous person made.

So if the other side overpumped by x1 amount then you pump an extra x1 the next turn / year (maybe multiplied some reference production factor as they don't all have the same absolute limits).

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#242

Post by jagraff »

nradov wrote: post #230
post-it wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is, respectfully, corporate propaganda. Consumers buy the vehicles that are available and advertised. It's in the best interest of manufacturers to convince/compel consumers to buy larger, more expensive vehicles with higher margins, and that's exactly what they're doing.

Bullshit. There are many competing auto manufacturers. No one is compelled to buy larger, more expensive vehicles. There are smaller, cheap vehicles available to those who want them. If I want a little penalty box like a Hyundai Elantra or Nissan Sentra the local dealers have base models in stock and ready to sell today. Larger vehicles are more comfortable, safe, and practical (for anyone who doesn't need to worry a…

Large vehicles are safer for the occupants of the vehicle, however they do increase danger for pedestrians and drivers of other vehicles in a collision. There is a reasonable argument that reducing vehicle size would save lives overall

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#243

Post by mattmaroon »

0xbadcafebee wrote: post #224

This is the US trying to salvage the petrodollar. They want those t-bills and oil priced in dollars to maintain reserve currency status, but the whole world is divesting anyway. UAE is hoping that by leaving OPEC they can continue to do business and get protection from US. But US isn't gonna risk a larger war just to defend UAE, US has plenty of oil to exploit in Venezuela and at home. So UAE is just kinda screwed, a…

It does seem like the petrodollar is coming to an end. Even if we wanted to keep killing/abducting the leader of every tiny oil nation shortly after the decide to sell oil in another currency (like we did to Iraq, Libya, and Venezuela), bigger ones we can’t just do that to practically are going to start.

The writing is on the wall. It might take decades, but it’ll end.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#244

Post by dannyw »

Ifkaluva wrote: post #179

Can somebody knowledgeable help me understand why this is in the interests of the UAE? Also, seems like a moot point since the strait is closed. Why do they think it’s in their best interests, and why now?

They don’t have production limits anymore, and can produce and sell as much oil as they have capacity for.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#245

Post by tyre »

ndisn wrote: post #229
post-it wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is, respectfully, corporate propaganda. Consumers buy the vehicles that are available and advertised. It's in the best interest of manufacturers to convince/compel consumers to buy larger, more expensive vehicles with higher margins, and that's exactly what they're doing.

You can’t convince (almost all) consumers to spend money on something that they do not want.

You can, but it’s easier to convince them to want something that they don’t need or is actively harmful.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#246

Post by Ifkaluva »

dannyw wrote: post #244
Ifkaluva wrote: post #179

Can somebody knowledgeable help me understand why this is in the interests of the UAE? Also, seems like a moot point since the strait is closed. Why do they think it’s in their best interests, and why now?

They don’t have production limits anymore, and can produce and sell as much oil as they have capacity for.

Ok but:

- why now? What has changed that made the lack of limits more attractive than it used to be?

- despite no limits, the strait is blocked, so they still can’t sell anything?

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#247

Post by chasd00 »

Ajedi32 wrote: post #210
philistine wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the price is too low and fields stop being exploited because they're unprofitable, you reduce the volume produced each day. That means there's scarcity with a low price, and you're back at trying to switch en energy source because you just can't get oil. That moves prices upward, because people are willing to pay more, but increasing production is not like turning the faucet in your home. It takes time. This is th…

In a free market "scarcity with a low price" is a contradiction. If there's scarcity the prices will be high, not low. And nobody's going to be reducing production if the prices are high. > instability of oil production that OPEC tries to prevent First of all, if the goal is to prevent instability OPEC is doing a terrible job. Secondly, a cartel is not needed to prevent price instability, as demonstrated by the hundr…

> First of all, if the goal is to prevent instability OPEC is doing a terrible job.

I mentioned this upthread, the instability OPEC is trying to prevent is civil unrest from not being able to fund their social programs and governments. They need a price that puts them in the black and the rest of the world will pay. If it was a free market the fracking boom would still be raging and oil would be $30/bbl. Many gulf nations would fall apart if oil was at that price for a long period of time hence the price manipulation. (I'm not sure how they got the frackers to ease up, some say many of the frackers were bought out by OPEC members and their wells capped but that's just conspiracy afaik)

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#248

Post by ericmay »

watwut wrote: post #234
ericmay wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the US petrodollar promise to protect UAE states from aggression in exchange for trade in USD could not be upheld Well the war is still ongoing, and Iran's regime is already feeling the pain of the blockade [1]. Pricing oil in Yuan because, I guess, the US is somehow not protecting the UAE doesn't make sense because China won't be there to protect them either. The US can just say, well fine you can sell your oil in…

> Iran "closes the Straight", well the US can't do anything. Well, Iran closed the Straight and the world is facing biggest oil crises since 90ties. US was in fact incapable to prevent it. Even if the Straight opened today, harm already happened and will continue to happen for months. And I dont think it will open today. The war did not had to start at all and is causing considerable harm already. Iran feeling pain d…

> The war did not had to start at all and is causing considerable harm already. Iran feeling pain does not mean surrounding states were protected - instead they were put into harms way.

They were always in harm's way. The war could have waited, and Iran could have doubled or tripled its missile stockpile and then they really would have been in harm's way. You're falling in to the same trap I mentioned "country does X, end of analysis".

> Well, Iran closed the Straight and the world is facing biggest oil crises since 90ties. US was in fact incapable to prevent it.

Any country is incapable of preventing it then. Iran could always just mine the straight and threaten to launch missiles and go hide in the mountains. If Iran wasn't doing all of these awful things in the region, none of this would be happening.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#249

Post by don_esteban »

jagraff wrote: post #236
api wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tangent but: this is also why reducing greenhouse gas emissions is hard. As long as fossil fuels remain one of the cheapest easiest to scale ways to make power, there’s a similar incentive to cheat. If everyone else cuts emissions and you don’t, your margins are higher and you can undercut them. Global reductions require an all-cooperate scenario. Developing nations have the strongest incentive to cheat since they ne…

Agreed - the good news is, in many circumstances renewable energy is cheaper for new energy capacity. As long as regulations move in the right direction, we are likely to see the global energy mix move towards renewable sources over time

Not only is the renewable energy cheaper, it also raises energy independence, which turns out to be quite relevant in today's world.

Furthermore, it also reduces the drain on the (often very fragile, for thirld world countries) foreign reserves, especially relevant when the oil prices fluctuate wildly.

If your solar panels are old and you don't have money to replace them, you get slightly less electricity. If you are out of gasoline/diesel and you have no money to buy it, you have a big, big, problem.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#250

Post by anonymars »

boringg wrote: post #59
pjc50 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone's going to have to provide me with an explainer of how many different proxy forces are involved in Yemen. I can barely keep up with Lebanon and have forgotten Syria.

Best of luck! These proxy wars have existed since the days of Assyria. 3000 years and running. Kind of depressing thought actually.

> Kind of depressing thought actually

I gotchu: https://youtu.be/-evIyrrjTTY ("This Land is Mine", 3 min)

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