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F-35 is built for the wrong war

warontherocks.com

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Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#241

Post by bluGill »

janalsncm wrote: post #211
vanviegen wrote: post #89

It concerns me how casual the article and some of the comments here discuss an actual war against China, as if that were a reasonable scenario. Of course I understand wanting to be prepared even for grim scenarios such as these. Military strategists should of course continually be refining such plans. But casual discussions like this, without even so much as a disclaimer about it being a hypothetical and extremely un…

The more I read about it, the more firmly I believe it is in the U.S.’s best interest to avoid military conflict with the world’s only manufacturing superpower. Not that we could afford wars with non-superpowers either.

the us is a manufacturing superpower. China is visible for cheap, but the us is a major power.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#242

Post by mpyne »

amluto wrote: post #204
Rover222 wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I would like to see the government (at all levels) have more in house capabilities and less absurd degrees of outsourcing. I’m currently watching an 8-figure park remodeling project happening near home. Instead of hiring one or two competent construction managers for a few hundred thousand dollars, the city seems to be spending several million dollars for outside management to oversee this one project. (Never mind ho…

> I would like to see the government (at all levels) have more in house capabilities and less absurd degrees of outsourcing.

This would help at all levels.

It's very difficult as a government employee to properly supervise contractors when you have little idea what those contractors are actually doing.

But it's hard to gain that experience when you don't actually ever do those things yourself either.

Empower competent people and the government can still succeed, even today. The issue is that everything seem stacked against the idea of either retaining competence or empowering those who are competent to do their work.

Aside from the very real attempts by people to defang the government by offloading all of its functions to the private sector, government is also undermined by an entirely different coterie of idealist, who believe that all the government needs is more process and coordination.

It's very hard indeed to retain competent personnel when they're needlessly mired in non-value-added process steps that are there simply to provide CYA box-checking.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#243

Post by carefree-bob »

pohl wrote: post #51
titzer wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The total cost of the entire program over its projected lifetime is $1.7 trillion. The F-35 is made by one company, Lockheed Martin (with some pieces made by a couple others). This entire program is a massive transfer of taxpayer money into one company. Another data point is that it's estimated that all student debt in the US combined is $1.7 - 1.8 trillion. No wonder America keeps falling behind.

I think you're ignoring subcontractors and other suppliers. It's probably more like a thousand or so companies.

Yeah, congress forces the military to contract out to companies in enough congressional districts to secure passage of the legislation. We basically force these companies into byzantine and inefficient supply chains because we treat it all as a jobs program.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#244

Post by rjbwork »

benoau wrote: post #224
spongebobstoes wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$25k per flight hour is a lot more than what drones cost

What's crazy is there's lots of videos of Ukranians shooting drones from open-cockpit propeller planes that barely cost more than the drones! I think in a serious drone war we would just have fleets of Cesnas flying around with a person hanging out the door with a shotgun lol.

Then you send a swarm and fly a few sacrificial drones them into the airplanes.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#245

Post by angry_octet »

scottyah wrote: post #198
jjk166 wrote: post #158

> Meanwhile, modern conflict, from Ukraine’s drone war to naval engagements in the Red Sea to Iran’s own mass missile and drone salvos, increasingly favors systems that can be produced at scale and replaced when lost. The F-35 is a masterpiece. But a force designed around a masterpiece is not designed for long, protracted wars, and U.S. adversaries know this. The problem is that the F-35 was intended to be the low co…

The F-35 is a massive success. It is a common design that brought together what would have been three to five different planes into one. Costs doubling is further proof of how amazing it is- inflation has basically outpaced that. Cost per flight hour has more to do with data analytics and the Socialism within the DoW (it's a jobs program) than actual need. A lot of delays were quasi-on purpose. It has crazy supply ch…

The alternative future, of just producing non-STOVL, is particularly relevant now. The USMC needs some organic aviation, but it doesn't need an F-35C. Organic drones would be an excellent fit for Wasp class ships and beach head forces.

Of course it was all tied up with needing allies to buy to increase order size, and the UK Bukit the STOVL bits, so naturally they had to buy all STOVL jets to increase British industry buy.

It's a rat's nest of everyone trying to please all their stakeholders. It is, eventually, a great jet, but it could have been a better, cheaper jet, delivered sooner, and already past Block 5.

Oh yeah, did anyone mention how long it takes to integrate a new system onto the F-35? Fracking years. All of which has to be done by LM, forever. Because the F-35 is not a jet, it's a Master Contract.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#246

Post by 0xbadcafebee »

0cf8612b2e1e wrote: post #163
jfengel wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A general war against China is impossible. But a "limited" war fought over Taiwan isn't beyond the realm of possibility. Which does take it into a kind of Schroedinger's realm. The US takes it seriously, so it develops technology for it, and China doesn't invade. But would China have invaded if the US hadn't prepared for that war? Quite possibly, but you can never know.

In the quite likely scenario that Iran goes on any longer, the US will become so war exhausted that we will be unable to provide any support for Taiwan.

US will start a draft and turn up more warfighting manufacturing. They have no way to respond to things other than with violence. Of course they'll lose the fight for Taiwan, but America has no problem fighting stupid wars they then lose.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#247

Post by nradov »

01100011 wrote: post #162
dinfinity wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I am sure people will take issue with this comment but look at the relative restraint of Russia in Ukraine [...] vs, say, WWII. They have been bombing civilian infrastructure, abducting children, torturing and executing civilians and POWs, executing deserters or wannabe deserters the entire fucking Ukraine war. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_crimes_in_the_Russo-Ukrain... Restraint, my unbleached asshole.

No one is fire-bombing cities yet, despite Ukraine pulling a WWII Japan and distributing weapons production amongst residences.

Russia has been attacking Ukrainian cities with missiles and drones since the beginning of the conflict. But Russia simply lacks the capacity to fire-bomb cities on a large scale. They only have a handful of operational heavy bombers left and no real ability to manufacture more so they're unwilling to risk them.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#248

Post by gozucito »

carefree-bob wrote: post #208
0cf8612b2e1e wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the quite likely scenario that Iran goes on any longer, the US will become so war exhausted that we will be unable to provide any support for Taiwan.

The Iran war is a skirmish by any reasonable measure. It does not exhaust either the US Navy or the Airforce, and the Army isn't even participating. Now I understand it has a large impact because of oil prices and the closing of the strait of hormuz, but don't confuse the economic impact of the closing of shipping lanes with something that "exhausts" the US military. Remember this is the military that spent two decad…

Do you know what percentage of THAADs have been used in Iran?

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#249

Post by sp4cec0wb0y »

einpoklum wrote: post #222
eek2121 wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tell that to the folks on the front lines, along with folks on both sides, military or not, who have had to deal with it. Russia would never nuke Ukraine to begin with. They know that by doing so, most of the world would unite against them, and many, including Putin, would be on the chopping block.

> Russia would never nuke Ukraine to begin with. Russia is not fighting Ukraine, it is fighting NATO in Ukraine. And, IIANM, it has the capability of hitting non-Ukranie NATO targets in various places around the world - with cruise missiles and such. The assumption that "oh, Russia will never do this" is actually quite reckless and dangerous; and I don't just mean dangerous to whoever would get attacked, but dangerou…

> Russia is not fighting Ukraine, it is fighting NATO in Ukraine.

If that is the case they are doing a poor job at doing so, without even fighting the full might of NATO.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#250

Post by carefree-bob »

0cf8612b2e1e wrote: post #230
carefree-bob wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Iran war is a skirmish by any reasonable measure. It does not exhaust either the US Navy or the Airforce, and the Army isn't even participating. Now I understand it has a large impact because of oil prices and the closing of the strait of hormuz, but don't confuse the economic impact of the closing of shipping lanes with something that "exhausts" the US military. Remember this is the military that spent two decad…

I would dispute the depletion of expensive munitions, but I still believe that is largely irrelevant next to political exhaustion. I do not think most Americans would care to defend Taiwan, even against the China boogeyman. The practical realities of losing Chinese goods would be a devastating reality few are prepared to face.

I agree, political exhaustion is the real constraint.

I personally would not be willing to do anything to defend Taiwan from China. But then again, I don't support any of the wars we fought in the middle east, either.

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